Realities of winning the lottery

Reply #22

RJOh — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 13:59:04 GMT

There really wasn't a point being made, just an observation. Games with fewer numbers seem to show up the weakness of strategies a lot sooner, that's the reason I test my strategies by trying to pick winning combinations on the prediction board for West Virgina Cash25. I'm developing a strategy to play Ohio Classic Loto when it has a little more history. I won't be buying 65,000 tickets so I will need a strategy for picking my numbers.

Reply #21

KY Floyd — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 05:10:00 GMT

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. For the 5 of 37 game, if there are no repeats in the first 436 drawings 1 out of 1000, or 0.1%, of the possible combinations will have been drawn. That means that in the next 1000 drawings we would expect to see a repeat of one of the first 436 combinations, and in the remaining 2287 drawings we would expect 2.23 repeats, which is 0.1%. Have 437 more drawings and 2/1000 of the combinations should have been drawn, and we should expect that ther... [ More ]

Reply #20

RJOh — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 03:41:41 GMT

I tracked the Ohio Buckeye5 (5/37=435,897 possible combinations) from 04/06/93 to 10/02/04. That's 2723 random drawings and doing that time six combinations of five repeated and 1359 other times the winning numbers were one number from repeating a previous combination of five. I wouldn't think terminals picking numbers randomly would do any better, I suspect the duplicates could be as high as 0.1%.

Reply #19

jarasan — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 13:28:55 GMT

There were approx. 2.8 miliion tix sold in MD.for the 370M draw on mega millions three tix hit for 5/5, no big winners. Luck is big factor.

Reply #18

Thoth — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 05:43:24 GMT

These figures assume that the lottery pool is playing 65,000different combinations with no duplicates. But even with no efforts to ensure that each combo is different, I calculate that only about 12 or 13 duplicates would actually exist in 65,000 totally random picks.

Reply #17

LckyLary — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 03:35:10 GMT

There is a battle going on with the players vs. the Lottery. Serious players want to find patterns in the numbers so they have a fighting chance and the Lottery wants the game to be as fair as possible so will move Heaven and earth to make drawings as random as possible. But the balls are within very tight tolerances and the machines precision-made and the drawings adhere to strict procedures. An advanced enough program can diminish the odds to reachable levels. I have won a game where the odds

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 03:13:17 GMT

For buying a single ticket for as many drawings as there are combinations it doesn't matter what numbers you use. For buying multiple tickets (whether it's 2, 2000, or 2 million) the probabilities are based on not having any duplicates. Nobody who understand how probability works is going to tell you what the probability is without knowing how many chances you have.

Reply #15

RJOh — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 17:12:45 GMT

Are these figures based on each player randomly picking their own numbers with no effort to avoid duplicates or numbers that have already hit? If they are then that would suggest that a pool of people could increase their odds of winning with a strategy. Picking duplicates won't increase the odds of winning a jackpot and combinations of five or greater seldom repeat. Since all LP members are allowed to post at least 10 lines per game a group could test those theory on the prediction board and... [ More ]

Reply #14

Thoth — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 16:56:40 GMT

Very True...

Reply #13

KY Floyd — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 16:18:39 GMT

if you play your $1 for the full course of 175,711,536 games (the exact odds # of combos), you only stand a 63.21% chance of winning the jackpot.

That's why you should always buy more than1 ticket at a time. If you buy half of the possible combinations for two drawings you'll risk the same amount of money, but your probability of winning a jackpot goes up to 75% and there's a 25% chance of winning both.

Reply #12

Thoth — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 15:52:27 GMT

FatLane: It's a big number and it's a hard number to put into perspective. If you play $1 each draw, it is expected that you will have to put up your $1 for 170 million drawings before it is statistically likely for your numbers to hit.

Interesting post, but according to probability, even if you play your $1 for the full course of 175,711,536 games (the exact odds # of combos), you only stand a 63.21% chance of winning the jackpot. Playing the $1 for twice that amount of games (351... [ More ]

Reply #11

guesser — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 06:50:49 GMT

You posted something I actually agree with 100%.

Nicely done.

Reply #10

KY Floyd — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 00:44:48 GMT

I'd certainly be curious to see the clip. There are stupid mathematicians, just like there are stupid people in any other field, and we all occasionally disconnect our mouths from our brains and say something we should know is off the wall. The bit about 25 billion is definitely off the wall as you describe it, so I'm curious if the mathematician was really answering some other question, or if there's somthing in the clip that would give us a clue where that number really comes from.Working bac... [ More ]

Reply #9

FatLane — Thu, 08 Mar 2007 20:07:29 GMT

I wrote this message for another message forum. I added the $370 million jackpot just to make it current. I think everyone here at lotterypost already knows that The odds of winning the record $370+ million Mega Millions jackpot is greater than 170 million to one and The odds of winning the record $370+ million Mega Millions jackpot is greater than 170 million to one , have the same level of truth.

The only reason the Mathematicians want to point out the seemingly impossible odds is becua... [ More ]

Reply #8

codmander — Thu, 08 Mar 2007 17:42:16 GMT

lady luck and a six full number wheel isnt the worst way big deal 12 bucks a week with 2 extra numbers per week play em as you see em as clint would say DO YOU FEEL LUCKY

Reply #7

SirMetro — Thu, 08 Mar 2007 16:59:11 GMT

In your opening line, you note that The odds of winning the record $370+ million Mega Millions jackpot is greater than 170 million to one.

To perhaps put it in better perspective, the amount of the pot doesn't really matter. One's odds of winning ANY MegaMillion jackpot will be in excess of 170 million to one.

The only time anyone wants to face or admit that reality is when the jack pot is super-sized. The odds doesn't change just because of the size of the jackpot, only the value chang... [ More ]

Reply #6

FatLane — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 20:21:49 GMT

Thanks for your comments. I did make a mistake in saying that each person gets back only $.50. That should be $2.52.

What I failed to clarify in my message is that I am basing my simulations on California results where all payouts are paramutual.

The real life payout for the 5+0 ticket in California was $160,600 to three winning tickets. To make my simulation as real as possible, I used the following math:

(160,600 * 3) / 4

This comes out to 120,450 which I used as the winning total

Reply #5

four4me — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 19:40:27 GMT

Beats me RJOH i thought the same thing too. No one around him questioned his topic they just agreed with him. I tried to find the pod cast but i couldn't. I will look again today. If i find it i will post the link.

Reply #4

RJOh — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 19:10:14 GMT

The possible combinations in a 5/56 + 1/46 game are 175,711,536, if that mathematician thinks there 're more then he needs to go on that new Fox show Are you smarter than a fifth grader? .

Reply #3

four4me — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 19:01:56 GMT

last night on WJZTV some mathematician said if you include the bonus ball in all the possible combinations you could play to win... you would need 25 billion lines.

in other words there are 25 billion combinations for the mega million drawing. This is the first time i ever heard that or maybe this info was posted before.

Reply #2

KY Floyd — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 18:52:06 GMT

Your basic message that it's very unlikely to turn a profit in the lottery is something that almost every one already knows. Running the model is interesting but the odds and the prize structure already tell us what we can expect. Lotteries usually pay out 50 cents on the dollar, and I expect a lot of people think that's about what they can expect to get back over the long term. The reality is, as you've noted, that even pools that buy an enormous number of tickets are very unlikely to win the j... [ More ]

Reply #1

Badger — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 12:44:03 GMT

You have to have some luck no matter what game you play. Even Pick 3 requires guessing the right day the combination you bet will be drawn.

Yet no matter how high the odds, someone will win. MM had two winners last night, not just one.

Realities of winning the lottery

FatLane — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 07:23:08 GMT

The odds of winning the record $370+ million Mega Millions jackpot is greater than 170 million to one.

It's a big number and it's a hard number to put into perspective. If you play $1 each draw, it is expected that you will have to put up your $1 for 170 million drawings before it is statistically likely for your numbers to hit.

But that's based on buying only one ticket at a time. Most people buy many tickets and a lot of people participate in lotto pools to increase their chances of... [ More ]