degree of certanty

Reply #21

KY Floyd — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 05:33:20 GMT

I think that in drawing numbered balls from a mixing machine we don't need to be concerned with the effects of quantum mechanics on our observations or the results. 686 is 686 no matter what flavor a particular quark might be.

Reply #20

eddessaknight — Wed, 18 Apr 2007 20:26:32 GMT

The Uncertainty principle states that you can never really understand the true nature of an event, because the very act of studying the event can change the outcome.

~Werner Heisenberg, famous for the Uncertainty principle in Quantum Mechanics.

What do you think?

eddessaknight

Reply #19

CARBOB — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 11:09:27 GMT

I agree, Thoth has always posted very good info!! Thank you very much.

Reply #18

BigJer — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 10:14:22 GMT

Thanks Thoth

I was thinking about asking you for the sums on the pick 3 matrix, and was thinking that I did not want to imposse on you so soon after the great job you did on the pick 4 chart. Any one who is not seeing these charts are missing out on some wonderful stuff.

THANKS AGAIN

BigJer

Reply #17

Thoth — Fri, 06 Apr 2007 05:42:22 GMT

..and heres the Pick 3 Sums DC Chart

Reply #16

eddessaknight — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 21:51:19 GMT

That Point of Certainty (odds times 9) usually puts you into the DC = 99.99%. It does seem true most of the time. ~Thoth

And isn't that why it's called gambling ?

I suppose if a player were to hit within these 99.99% perematers, wins should outweigh loses.

Many thanks Thoth for the time and effort for the listed table contribution and your relevant reply to my Point of Certainty story and inquiry.

Regards,

eddessaknight

Reply #15

Thoth — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 05:51:17 GMT

That Point of Certainty (odds times 9) usually puts you into the DC = 99.99%. It does seem true most of the time. Perhaps it would be better to call it a point of forthcoming certainty ...that would be the entire range of odds times 9 to 12.

But with even 50/50 chances, this can be into up into the low 20's (anomalous as it is) even though 12 to 14 is the normal max.

Here's one that screws it all up: Anything that has a 10% chance has a 99.9999999999999% chance of occurring within 327... [ More ]

Reply #14

eddessaknight — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 08:30:45 GMT

Thoth, Rick, John, et al-

Hey Rick et al,

POINT OF CERTAINTY SAFETY-

There was this old timer punter who took a liking to me some blue moons back and said he would reveal his short hand but physics based 'Point of Certainty'. Well btiefly, the old fella says take the real odds and multiply by 9 and if the expected happening hadn't occured yet then bet the farm. Ole' Nick says he did well with keno games in Las Vegas. Take your fav number (odds 4-1) hasn't hit say in last 35/3... [ More ]

Reply #13

Thoth — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 03:36:33 GMT

Thanks guys, I appreciate that. It actually doesnt take too long with excel.

Reply #12

Rick G — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 18:38:18 GMT

Thanks, Thoth.

Reply #11

johnph77 — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 18:22:22 GMT

Thoth -

An absolutely awesome set of charts. Well done!

gl

j

Reply #10

BigJer — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 10:11:14 GMT

Thanks Thoth

That had to be a lot of work, and I greatly appreciate it

Bigjer

Reply #9

Thoth — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 14:53:32 GMT

Heres the Pick 4 Sums DC chart

Reply #8

BigJer — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 10:25:05 GMT

thanks Thoth

I have been keeping pencil and paper checrts of how old the sums of all 36 sums and do not have but three months data , and would like to be able to forcast how often they should hit .

I just recently started playing pick 4 after not playing it for many years .

I thinks the average of the double's should be about 23 as there are 42 percent hits of doubles in pick 4 , llet me know if this is close to being correct.

T hanks in advance

BigJer

Reply #7

Thoth — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 07:04:30 GMT

Thanks Badger

Reply #6

Thoth — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 07:03:57 GMT

Sure is. You can DC any event as long as you know its true probability. I dont have time to do the chart tonight though. I'll try to get to it in a few days.

Reply #5

Badger — Sun, 25 Mar 2007 15:04:32 GMT

Thoth, that's a great chart. Although I didn't start the thread, I just want to thank you for it.

Reply #4

BigJer — Sun, 25 Mar 2007 10:22:49 GMT

Hello again Thoth

I am wondering if you are going all the way to a DC chart of sums of Pick 4 matrix.

BigJer

Reply #3

Thoth — Thu, 22 Mar 2007 16:17:35 GMT

Your welcome Bigjer.

For anyone who doesnt know what the Degree of certainty is, heres how the charts are used:

The bet type is listed on the right most column, the odds of any number being drawn, that fit that bet type, are listed to the right in the next column. All the percentages are listed next. Below the percentages are the amount of games required to attain each percent.

Say you want to win the Pick 3 straight and your favorite number is 468. How long must you play your number... [ More ]

Reply #2

BigJer — Thu, 22 Mar 2007 10:21:17 GMT

Hi Thoth

Thank you very much this will help me in my training of some quick pick players who think every thing is just luck

BigJer

Reply #1

Thoth — Thu, 22 Mar 2007 04:08:26 GMT

I just made you one for Pick 3 and 4.

The number of games are rounded to the closest whole number. Ive used his formula and a similar one extensively. One thing I've noticed is that when any probability gets to its 99.99% mark, it hits extremely soon...relatively speaking of course. A probability getting to its 99.999% mark is extreeeeemely rare

degree of certanty

BigJer — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 09:35:07 GMT

Any one familair with the DC chart in Ion Saliu Mdiedit-we

for the pick 3 , I would like the same type of chart that will cover the 710 boxed numbers for the pick4

I have a number that has not hit boxed in 6833 days and I think it is in the same as 6904 range as the pick at 99.9 percent for the pick 3

Bigjer