If I reduce the MM or PB number pool by half and play 3o2e/3e2o...(?)

Reply #28

MegaWinner — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 12:43:30 GMT

I also agree with your picks for Weds.

Reply #27

MegaWinner — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 12:21:46 GMT

I too have noticed a weird trend in both games according to my own stats. I have notived that a large number repeats and back to back numbers are happening almost every drawing. But again, this is based off how I track the game.

Reply #26

guesser — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 09:14:28 GMT

I made a posting awhile back that said out of 100 PB games, we had a repeat number 48 times. That's 48%.

But for the subsequent 50 drawings, we had like 12 repeats, that's around 24%.

Things tend to run in 'trends'.

I have seen a few things in the last 2-3 weeks in PB that I have not seen in the last 15 months at all, so I have a choice to make:

- Do I continue to play based on prior history and just wait for things to come back, or do I try to 'chase' things ?

THIS is precisely w... [ More ]

Reply #25

MegaWinner — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 06:07:40 GMT

when I say the chances were ZERO, they were always ZERO, thats why it didn't happen.

Whenever there is more than 1 possible outcome there will always be at least one outcome that doesn't occur in every single trial. If you are about to flip a coin there is precisely a 1 in 2 chance that you will get heads, but about half of the time the result will be tails. Are you suggesting thatat some point the unknown magical force you propose changes the probability of heads to zero, so that it's not... [ More ]

Reply #24

MegaWinner — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 13:54:36 GMT

Trust me genius, the reason I pm'ed you was because you took so long to reply before (you must have been too busy trying to pry your foot of out of that arrogant mouth of yours). At that point I thought it was a friendly debate; even giving you an out to cut the wiseguy bullscheisse out by at first, not resorting to the childish behavior of namecalling and wisecracks which you did when you realized you were wrong. But I digress. I guess I ultimately had to stoop to your low level for a se... [ More ]

Reply #23

RJOh — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 06:33:45 GMT

During the last 400 PB drawings (58%)233 times none of the winning numbers were in the previous drawing, (36%)145 times one of the winning numbers were in the previous drawing, (5%)21 times two of the winning numbers were in the previous drawing and one time three of the numbers were in the previous drawing. No need to calculate the odds when you can look at actual results.

Reply #22

KY Floyd — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 06:15:59 GMT

The odds that any one number will turn up in a PB drawing are 5 in 55. That means there's about a 9% chance that the first number from the previous drawing will repeat. It also means there's about a 9% chance that the second number will repeat. Ditto for numbers 3, 4 5. Add it up and there's better than a 45% chance that one of the numbers will repeat. That's close enough to call it 50/50 when discussing it in general terms.

Reply #21

KY Floyd — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 06:13:21 GMT

If I'd put my foot in my mouth it would taste pretty bad after wading through your last few posts. I can do it myslef, but I was going out. I'm surprised I can't taste it just from standing here.

Don't bother sending me another PM to tell me you posted again. I recognize a new post when I see one.

Reply #20

RJOh — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 23:54:00 GMT

Out of curiosity I checked Florida's lottery website and since the matrix changed from 6/49 to 6/53 on 10/28/99, combinations of fives have repeated three times, combinations of fours have repeated 187 times, but no combinations of sixes have repeated yet.

10/25/06 13 20 27 33 41 43 *

02/28/04 12 13 20 27 33 43

09/20/03 17 31 33 38 44 53

11/22/02 15 17 33 38 44 53

11/13/02 12 22 27 32 38 44

10/21/02 11 12 22 27 32 44

* matched five even more if you include drawi... [ More ]

Reply #19

Guru101 — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 22:22:28 GMT

Actually the odds are not 50/50 that at least one number from the last drawing. It's actually lower than that. For example, in PowerBall, the odds that at least one white ball from the last drawing will appear in the next drawing would be 5/55, or 1/11.

Reply #18

MegaWinner — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 20:57:06 GMT

Also, I didn't catch thiis the first time.

Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not pretty versed in probability, regardless of what they may have known or studied in th... [ More ]

Reply #17

MegaWinner — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 19:25:59 GMT

Dude, i'm done. It would be pointless for me to sit here and point out the many contradictions and fallacies you have within your replies as it shows you must be infected with gotta-be-right-itis . Its quite obvious you don't know as much about probability as you think you know. If you did, you would understand my argument. If you don't believe me, go back and read your own replies a few times and see where you put your foot in your mouth. LOL @ you thinking everyone around you except you... [ More ]

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 19:04:04 GMT

I took advanced mathematics in college. I'm pretty versed on the subject of probablity.

Go back and look at how you started this thread. You asked a question about probability that had a simple answer that you didn't know and couldn't figure out on your own.Simple probability allows us to very easily and precisely calculate the odds, but you asked what we thought the odds would be. Somebody who can't do such basic calculations on probability is not pretty versed in probability, regardles... [ More ]

Reply #15

justxploring — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:04:27 GMT

BobP - do you know if Florida's 6/53 Lotto has ever had a combination repeat? Last time I studied all the drawings for the past 10 years, no sets had been drawn twice. I realize that during this period the game changed from 6/49 a few years back, so this changed everything. On the other hand, every drawing is a new game anyway.

The scary thing is sitting at my computer one day for about 30 minutes and entering more than 100 different combinations randomly, only to see that none of them... [ More ]

Reply #14

RJOh — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 14:36:31 GMT

PowerBall had its last matrix change 162 drawings back at 09/07/05. The bonus numbers pool didn't change but its regular numbers pool went from 52 to 55 shortly after MegaMillions changed its matrix.

Reply #13

four4me — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 14:12:23 GMT

i didn't say there wouldn't be a repeat.

Mega mill has only had 184 drawings since the last matrix change.

powerball has had 469 drawings since their last matrix change this is of course if the figures are right.

In Maryland we have bonus match 5 every day there have been a hand full of times the same numbers, all 5 have repeated. Mind that these repeats were month or years apart. I don't have the exact figure on how many drawings have taken place. But it's several years worth.... [ More ]

Reply #12

BobP — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 06:14:49 GMT

A lot of people think a winning lottery combination won't be drawn again. When Florida had a 5/26 game all one had to do to be a jackpot winner was to play all the previously drawn combinations in each draw. There were something like 7 jackpot combinations that repeated within this time frame before it became unprofitable.

When one applies the birthday paradox to lottery the odds of a winning combination ever repeating is better then you'd think.

When it comes to Powerball the odds a... [ More ]

Reply #11

four4me — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 05:37:51 GMT

I read all this thread Whew! I think it they never change the matrix and say in another 1000 drawings or so we might see a repeat of the 5 white balls.

On another note if you played just one line for every draw and you lived a thousand years you might not even match all 5.

make your self a 54 number wheel and wheel the numbers on 500 tickets as a test and see what comes up.

Reply #10

MegaWinner — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 05:21:58 GMT

Sorry I took so long to reply, I didn't even know you replied back.

Again, you're simply showing that you don't understand how probability works. Probability is an exact science. You're just confused about what it can predict . It doesn't predict future events. It describes probabilities. There's a reason we don't refer to the laws of certainty or the laws of what's definitely going to happen.

No, I took advanced mathematics in college. I'm pretty versed on the subject of pr... [ More ]

Reply #9

Coin Toss — Thu, 22 Mar 2007 22:08:19 GMT

Good post Floyd. Probabilities can tell us what should happen, but never when it will happen.

Reply #8

KY Floyd — Thu, 22 Mar 2007 20:58:03 GMT

probability isn't an exact science and never will be since you are trying to predict a future outcome.

Probability is an exact science. You're just confused about what it can predict . It doesn't predict future events. It describes probabilities. There's a reason we don't refer to the laws of certainty or the laws of what's definitely going to happen .

probability can reduce certain variables but it can never be counted on as completely accurate.

Probability can't reduce any... [ More ]

Reply #7

MegaWinner — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 19:27:40 GMT

As far as the lottery not telling us about some odds that they don't define, are you suggesting that only mathematicians who work for the the lotteries knows about this and no other mathematicians have ever figured it out, or are you suggesting that there's some vast conspiracy among all mathematicians to never tell the rest of us that numbers (and balls, dice, cards, coins etc) have memories of previous results and the power to decide whether or not they'll come up again?

No, you are misint... [ More ]

Reply #6

KY Floyd — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 14:21:33 GMT

You could eliminate any numbers you want to, but what's the reason for eliminating them? Of course the chances that the same combination will repeat next time are slim to none. There are 175,711,535 other combinations that could come up instead, so that makes the odds that the same number will come up in the next drawing 1:175,711,535. It's not a coincidence that those are exactly the same odds as for any other combination. For any combination that you pick, and no matter how you pick it, ther... [ More ]

Reply #5

MegaWinner — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 01:52:39 GMT

Unless the numbers you eliminate from consideration are less likely to be drawn for some reason, there's absolutley no advantage to eliminating them. That's the problem with a lot of systems.

This is based off of eliminating numbers that most likely will NOT come up. Lets look at the last drawing of the MM. 17 25 36 40 43 + 09

I could eliminate *most* of those numbers from the next drawing unless one or more were considered hot or due. There is slim to NO chance of the sa... [ More ]

Reply #4

LckyLary — Wed, 21 Mar 2007 00:00:30 GMT

If you play only white balls for the first 5 in Mega, you are GUARANTEED that the winning #s will match that color.

OK not to be a wise here but you're probably not improving your odds by picking odd/even.

Your best solution is to find an algorithm that gives you the best #s and then wheel just those.

Reply #3

KY Floyd — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 23:24:13 GMT

First, you aren't reducing the number pool at all. Each of the 56 choices can be used in any combination that mixes odd and even. If you want to reduce the number pool to half you'd actually eliminate half of them from consideration. Whether you get rid of all the odd numbers, all the even numbers, 1 to 28, 29 to 56, or eliminate half of them at random, cutting the number pool in half means choosing from a pool of 28 numbers. Picking 5 numbers from a pool of 28 there are 98,280 possible combina... [ More ]

Reply #2

johnph77 — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 19:00:42 GMT

The breakdown - MM - 5/56

5 odd, 0 even - 98,280

4 odd, 1 even - 573,300

3 odd, 2 even - 1,238,328

2 odd, 3 even - 1,238,328

1 odd, 4 even - 573,300

0 odd. 5 even - 98,280

Total - 3,819,816

The breakdown - PB - 5/55

5 odd, 0 even - 98,280

4 odd, 1 even - 552,875

3 odd, 2 even - 1,149,876

2 odd, 3 even - 1,105,650

1 odd, 4 even - 491,400

0 odd, 5 even - 80,730

Total - 3,478,761

Nicely done, stack47 - thanks for the idea.

gl

j

Reply #1

Stack47 — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 15:04:03 GMT

There are 1,238,328 combinations having either 3 even and 2 odd or 3 odd and 2 even numbers.

If I reduce the MM or PB number pool by half and play 3o2e/3e2o...(?)

MegaWinner — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:16:47 GMT

Lets say I reduce the number pool in either the MM or PB games by half and play either 3 odd and 2 even or vice versa from that number pool, how much am I reducing the odds of getting 5 + 5 +0 and 5 +5 +1?

I see that the MM odds are 1:175,711,536 for 5 + 5 + 1. The odds for 5 + 5 + 0 are 1:3,904,701.

So how much do you think doing that will reduce those odds