A dollar and a dream true for PB and MM?

Reply #109

Perfect Timing — Fri, 14 Sep 2007 03:49:13 GMT

I am a true believer in the one is all you need mindset

I got my numbers in a dream....and since I really do believe that those numbers are going to hit, I only buy $1 per game.....

(and no....I have not posted in mystical and don't want to, I like the discussions on here LOL

Reply #108

Down — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 23:38:12 GMT

Yes someone has won the Jackpot with just $1.00. It was back at the end on 2005. The last draw in 2005 for Mega Millions, $1.00 QuickPick. The jackpot was $88,000,000.00

Reply #107

Coin Toss — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 22:39:21 GMT

Oh well, it ended up at $1,150,000 before it got hit - by a QP, imagine that.

Little Lotto Prize Payouts FOR TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2007

Winning Numbers: 02 - 18 - 19 - 23 - 36

PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS

INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS: 1

EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE: $1,150,000.00

WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:

102670 NEW OPEN PANTRY (QP)

8652 W 103 ST

PALOS HEIGHTS/60465

Reply #106

Coin Toss — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 22:18:26 GMT

Ooooops, IT'S $815,000.

Reply #105

Coin Toss — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 21:57:21 GMT

I'll make it as simple and accurate as it can be.

Every set of numbers has a numerator of 1/ total odds against 5 + 1 or 6 or whatever the game is.

Anything else is hype and tripe.

The challenge still stands, Illinois Lilttle Lotto tonight, $815,00 with that wonderfully low denominator of 575, 757, or statzeet about fractions.

BASTA FONGUL.

CAIO.

Reply #104

Stack47 — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 21:02:34 GMT

I understand that boards have more lurkers than members and thatpeople read these threads thinking, these guys know how to cut the odds down , by whatever means you want to call it.

Do we really need all these math lessons to understand if we buy 1000 tickets we have a better chance of winning the jackpot than if we only bought 1 ticket?

Most people probably get about 10 tickets even the jackpot is high so the odds are irrelevant and certainly not worth an argument. The topic is a dolla... [ More ]

Reply #103

KY Floyd — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 20:49:41 GMT

2/ 175,711, 536, etc....

In lotto this is the same as

1/ 175, 711, 535

The tenth dollar, or tenth line of numbers would not be as shown as in these wonderful lottle hype charts all throughout this thread, but in reality it's:

1/175,711,526.

Click. Now I get it. I really don't know how I could have been so stupid for so long.

Each ticket reduces the odds by only 1. It makes so much sense, now. If I buy a 2nd ticket the odds drop from 1 in 175,711,536 to 1 in 175,71... [ More ]

Reply #102

Guru101 — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 18:27:31 GMT

2/175,711,536 is not the same as 1/175,711,535. 2/175,711,536 is the same as 1/87,855,768. People aren't concerned with what the odds of a single line are. They are concerned with their odds as a whole. That's why they buy more tickets.

Reply #101

Coin Toss — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 15:57:58 GMT

KY Floyd

I realize that you're incapable of ever learning how it all works, but I'm still puzzled that after we've told you about 50 times you still don't understand how thoroughly you have wrong. The bizarre geometric progressions you see in your confusion don't exist, and none of the people who have it right have ever said that it does.

I understand that boards have more lurkers than members and thatpeople read these threads thinking, these guys know how to cut the odds down , by wha... [ More ]

Reply #100

computerhead723 — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 15:33:00 GMT

I don't dispute your grasp of math but ............only 30% of lottery proffits go to Education ,thats requried by state law ;

returning the money back to the players is no more than 25% ...since as you can see if almost 4million in payouts was recorded than how much was spent by players on the combined lotteries in one week

Reply #99

KY Floyd — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 05:07:37 GMT

If you go back and read it again you'll find that those figures are very clearly for the week of 8/26 to 9/1. A bit over $2.5 million went to education, meaning that the payout for the week was actually a bit over 60%.

Reply #98

KY Floyd — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 05:00:20 GMT

Tst your fraction theory- take enough out of the bank, evenif you have to borrow it, so that you can fractionalize your little chart up there down to less than 1.0

I realize that you're incapable of ever learning how it all works, but I'm still puzzled that after we've told you about 50 times you still don't understand how thoroughly you have wrong. The bizarre geometric progressions you see in your confusion don't exist, and none of the people who have it right have ever said that it does... [ More ]

Reply #97

Coin Toss — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 03:32:46 GMT

You just don't understand that fractions have nothing to do with love money and each one dollar buys one line of numbers and can only buy one line of numbers and that one line of numbers is1/ 146,107,962nd of all possible lines of numbers and that's all any one dollar and one line can ever be.

IT'S JUST UP TO EACH INDIVIDUAL HOW MANY TIMES THEY WANT TO BUY ONE LINE OF NUMBERS FOR ANY GIVEN DRAW.

Tst your fraction theory- take enough out of the bank, evenif you have to borrow it, so tha... [ More ]

Reply #96

computerhead723 — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 03:28:45 GMT

these NY counties combined spend about 4 million a week on numbers and lottery alone but the return is so far below expectatios is almost silly to play ;this chart below shows what the lottery paid out for the year so far;

(counties included are: Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans and Wyoming)

LOTTO$8,224.00

Mega Millions$122,052.00

Numbers$406,375.00

Win 4$138,754.00

Reply #95

Guru101 — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 22:02:05 GMT

Wrong again! You're saying this argument that you call it, refutes, which means to prove wrong, the information that has been posted about fractions. It's not wrong though. You are wrong. You just don't understand fractions.

300 tickets = 300 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 487,026.54

900 tickets = 900 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 162,342.18

You know, I'm actually finding it funny now, especially since you are referring to fractions as a fairy tail .

Reply #94

Coin Toss — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 20:03:23 GMT

He serioulsy needs to find something else to bet on, not a better system for Powerball.

If there was ever an argument that refutes this fairy tale about reducing by half, fractionalizing, or whatever people want to call it, this is it, $300-$900 worth at a whack.

Reply #93

computerhead723 — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 06:34:22 GMT

Just spoke to a man who spends between $$300-$$900 on PB quick picks and travels out of state to play the powerBall ....after we talked ....he wants to come up with a better system since he has never won any money on his Quick Picks and so far has cost him in the thousands ................

Reply #92

four4me — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 06:22:03 GMT

I didn't read every one of the last 7 post all the way through ( hurt my head to much) but i did read something that caught my eye. something about selling all the combinations.

If i go and buy 100 mega million or power ball tickets. There is nothing written anywhere that those combinations won't be sold to someone else.

While it is possible that one day they might sell nearly all the combinations for a mega or power ball game. If they do they will also sell multiple quick pick tickets w... [ More ]

Reply #91

SmoothJuice — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 06:14:04 GMT

I got dollar and a dream from a New York Lotto billboard while visiting New York City.

Reply #90

jarasan — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 04:39:17 GMT

I guess I got you thinking. Keep on convincing yourself it is second grade math and I am wrong, it's healthy for the brain.I remember my second grade teacher, Sister Carmen, but what math lessons she taught exactly, is forgotten. On the other hand I remember her kindness, lovely smile, and dedication to us kids.I still am in touch with some of those 2nd. grade classmates.In college I remember the times of enlightment and learning but not all the faces of my classmates or profs., just a couple o... [ More ]

Reply #89

KY Floyd — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 03:01:04 GMT

The discussion is definitely, and clearly, about math. Go back and look at how it started. If it isn't about math why was your first contribution about set theory?

It is a mistake to say you double your chances by buying 2 tickets, because what you are doing is falling into a math trap.

You see when you fractionalize by half, you are now saying there are now TWO distinct sets of possible outcomes per draw.

Both of those statements are wrong.

1. Nobody is faling into a ma... [ More ]

Reply #88

jarasan — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 04:18:33 GMT

The discussion is not about math, it is about reasonable expectations. I am not saying the math is wrong or your perception of the what the odds are, is wrong.

Your elementary school math teachers should be proud you, pie charts, fractions and all.

The numbers are enormous, I believe the odds are irrelevant in the consideration of a direct hit on top tier prize. The odds only become relevant and significant when the number of tickets played by any one player approaches the number of po... [ More ]

Reply #87

jarasan — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 03:46:48 GMT

My responses to your answers, thanks for the answers.

Question #1 : KY was a help. Nothing exists before it exists. My guru told me this. He is a bit metaphysical. Was Jimmy Hoffa eliminated or did he just disappear? Or vice-versa? Did he exist?

Where is the list of combos?

For 146,107,962 combos at 400 combos per page is 365,270 pages @ .2mm/sheet double-sided = 5000 sheets per meter (stacked) = 73 meter thick list (difficult to hide). With really small print you could shorten that d... [ More ]

Reply #86

Guru101 — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 02:58:34 GMT

Hopefully, this will make it a little easier for them to understand:

1/4

4/16

As you can see, to express 4/16 as 1/x, in this case 1/4, you divide both the numerator and denominator by 4. 4/4 = 1, 16/4 = 4. This applies to fractions of ALL sizes. There is no point where fractions can no longer be used. Just because the odds for 1 ticket is 1 in 146,107,962, doesn't mean fractions don't apply. 5/146,107,962 = 1/29,221,592.4.

Reply #85

KY Floyd — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 02:44:08 GMT

Well, of course I don't know everything. I limit my posts to things I do know about, and this is one of them. Like Guru, I learned fractions in elementary school, and despite the problems that some posters have with the concept, that's all there is to it. A lot of people seem to grasp the idea that 10 tickets gives you a 10 in 146 million chance, but some just can't follow along when it's simplified to 1 in 14.6 million.

If you feel insulted that's certainly your choice, but I said your pos... [ More ]

Reply #84

Guru101 — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 02:13:50 GMT

My responses to your questions in the order you asked them:

1. I think you pulled that question out of your butt. 146,107,962 combinations exist. You can't make a combination disappear, but for each ticket you buy, that's one more chance to win the jackpot.

2. Um, this should be obvious. You eliminate the combinations you buy. Don't confuse eliminate with disappear(like YOU probably would). When I say eliminate, I mean eliminate from the sets of numbers you no longer need in order to win t... [ More ]

Reply #83

jarasan — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 01:47:11 GMT

CT, I agree with you.

Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole.

How can you make combinations disappear if they don't exist yet?

How do you know what combinations you are eliminating by each additional ticket you are buying?

D... [ More ]

Reply #82

jarasan — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 19:19:12 GMT

Hey KY Floyd, thanks for straightening that out for me, I may be clueless but you are classless. This subject is so worn out, that we needed the jelly king to come in, add some jelly, and finally show us the light. Just about everything you write throws insults, you are a jerk, and ODDS are you have no friends.

P.S. You don't know everything.

Reply #81

Just6ntlc — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 18:34:59 GMT

If someone buy $1 and win a MM and PB jackpot, it just pure luck.

Reply #80

KY Floyd — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 14:16:12 GMT

The only thing I'm assuming is that some of the people who misunderstand the probability of winning with multiple tickets are capable of learning if they're given a simple explanation. I've offered dozens of explanations in the past, but you seem to be unable to avoid going off on some irrelevant tangent, as you've done here. I've clearly shown that by buying 42 tickets instead of one ticket you will be 42 times as likely to win. That's all that Guru, others, and I have been saying: the chances... [ More ]

Reply #79

Stack47 — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 06:07:40 GMT

You once used a craps analogy to explain odds.

We know there are 6 ways to roll a seven and 5 to roll a six so the odds are 6 to 5; in other words losing combinations to winning combinations (unless you're playing the don't ). If you also have a bet on the eight the odds are 6 to 5 on that bet too, but if you make both bets, there still 6 ways you can lose but there are now 10 ways you can win. If you have bets on the other 4 numbers you have another 14 ways to win. With 24 ways to win and... [ More ]

Reply #78

Todd — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 04:42:40 GMT

Wow, nice job finding that post from 2001!

BTW, now that everyone can save favorites, don't forget to click the favorite button when you uncover past nuggets.

Reply #77

Todd — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 04:38:11 GMT

Guru, I feel your pain.

I can hear your head banging onto your desk from here, but the silver lining is that you've added a variety of nice odds explanations to the knowledge base. Thanks

Reply #76

Coin Toss — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 03:50:36 GMT

And drawing by drawing, as people were reducing the odds by fractions, the jackpot went form the start point of $12,000,000 to $330,000,000 before it got hit.

One word: Luck.

Come to think of it, there's never been a winner yet at a press conference talk about fractions or anyhting similar.

Football Jersey numbers (the lady in Oklahoma, PB, here in the news - leser prize), etc.....but for all these type discusione here, has a winner ever stood up ther at a press conference and mentio... [ More ]

Reply #75

Guru101 — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 01:57:44 GMT

Um, anyone here who believes this stuff doesn't have to win a jackpot to talk. Fractions is something that is taught in elementary school. It's not magic Coin Toss. It's real, logical, correct math.

Reply #74

Coin Toss — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 23:27:36 GMT

JAG331

Coin Toss...no one is trying to make combinations disappear or to say that you will win the lottery if you buy 100 or 1000 tickets. It's just the math behind it...if I buy 625 times as many tickets as my friend, I am 625 times more likely to win. Not on each individual ticket, but as a whole.

I realize that. I also realize that of all tickets sold are considered as belonging to one player as a whole then the that 'player's chances have been fractionalized by oh, 137,000,000... [ More ]

Reply #73

JackpotWanna — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 21:01:03 GMT

Yes, you only need one ticket to win, but buying more tickets increases your odds of winning.

Reply #72

JAG331 — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 18:37:57 GMT

Nice to see that this friendly discussion has resurfaced!

I continue to agree with Guru and Stack, among others...it's all just fractions, finding an easier way to say the same thing.

If I could expand on Guru's response to CoinToss...

When working with odds, you need to use multiplication, not addition.

Using the Powerball example:

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

5 tickets = 1 in 29,221,502

25 tickets = 1 in 5,844,318

125 tickets = 1 in 1,168,864

625 tickets = 1 in 233,... [ More ]

Reply #71

Coin Toss — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 16:19:00 GMT

KYFloyd

Now suppose you bought 42 PB tickets, each with the same 5 regular balls and a different power ball. Since there are 42 power balls and you've played all of them you will match the powerball. Your chances of matching all 5 regular balls is still 1 in 3,478,761, isn't it? 146,107,962/3,478,761 is 42, so your 42 tickets makes you 42 times as likely to win as if you had bought only 1 ticket....

You're assuming at least one of those 5 regular balls is gong to be drawn. There's no s... [ More ]

Reply #70

KY Floyd — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 05:58:18 GMT

The discussion is about probability, and anyone with any real grasp of math would understand that for the purpose of the discussion each ticket represents a distinct combination.

Reply #69

KY Floyd — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 05:56:53 GMT

If you continue that 146/5 13 more times, for a total of 14, then the odds become zero . That's the flaw in it.

I'm sorry to repeat myself for the 37th time, but the people who agree with you are the only ones who think that anyone else thinks it works that way. Those of us who understand it have never said any such thing. It's all about proportions. Buying the 5 tickets that Guru has used in his example makes you 5 times more likely to win. Notice how the 5 is repeated. 1 in 145 million... [ More ]

Reply #68

KY Floyd — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 05:50:36 GMT

I have seen people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot,

Anyone who thinks that having 1000 out of 145 or 176 million combinations gives them a lock on winning the jackpot is a moron, but that doesn't mean that the math doesn't work the way Guru has explained it.

You post about sets is clueless about how the odds really work, but the basic idea of sets can be used to offer a clue to those who are smart enough. Lets imagine a game with odds of 1 in 1... [ More ]

Reply #67

KY Floyd — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 05:47:53 GMT

Only one combination can win.

That's true for MM and PB, but not all games, so why would you think that's the only factor in determing your odds? Take a look at the raffle games that have been offered lately. The odds of winning a top prize in those games is based on how many top prizes there are, but it's still about the proportion of tickets to winning combinations. In a typical raffle there may be 1 million combinations and 10 top prizes, for odds of 1 in 100,000. The odds would be exactl... [ More ]

Reply #66

psykomo — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 00:52:55 GMT

Great Post>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>BUT??

Do you relly, rally,.........REALLY think U the star's $1.00 is all

U need to WIN?

DON't want to rain on anybody's PARADE<<<<<<<<<<<<<BUT...

Play a dallor a week for the next 50 years>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Then call Todd @ LP and let us>>

know how much D JACKPOT t'was... [ More ]

Reply #65

Guru101 — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 00:20:00 GMT

Making a full blown software application would certainly need to be to pondered about. Actually, I think a web subscription service would be better because I can keep all my (lottery) system algorithms server side, for obvious reasons. Either way, it's certainly a long road before I would be able to do something like that so I'm not worried about that right now. I do like that picture though.

Reply #64

jarasan — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 00:10:18 GMT

I would call one of them programs:

GURUS' LOTTO FRACTAL SEQUENCER V.539

Of course I would provide a shareware version for trial and full version at a modest price.

Reply #63

Guru101 — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 23:00:10 GMT

You might also want to take a C++ computer programming course so you can make a computer program based off a system you've developed for choosing lottery numbers so you can turn Pick 5 odds into less than Pick 3 odds.

Reply #62

jarasan — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 22:46:26 GMT

I agree with that.

I also agree (unstated) that it also increases your chances significantly on the lower tier prizes.

The jackpot winning combination is still elusive and you have to be very well funded to buy enough combos to get close to the top prize as an individual. That is my point, I have seen people buy thousands of tickets thinking they had a lock, guess what? No jackpot, but lots of lower tier prizes never breaking even. You have to buy millions, if you're aiming for the top p... [ More ]

Reply #61

Guru101 — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 19:59:53 GMT

I'm not talking about a single ticket's odds of hitting the jackpot, I'm talking about a single PERSON's odds of hitting the jackpot. When you want to determine a single PERSON's odds of hitting the jackpot, you have to take into consideration ALL of the tickets they have bought.

Reply #60

jarasan — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 19:47:26 GMT

Guru101 writes:

1,000,000 tickets = 1,000,000 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 146.107512(<-Obvious)

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious)

This is where the odds actually become significant to the player holding the tickets, when the numerator starts approaching the denominator, obviously.

Each ticket you have in your pocket has the same odds as all others until your pockets start filling up way more than will fit in those pockets no matter ho... [ More ]

Reply #59

Guru101 — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 15:35:45 GMT

Dude, I fully explained it in my last post, in yet you still don't get it. I'm not eliminating millions of combinations. I'm EXPRESSING the odds as 1/x where x is 146,107,962 divided by the number of tickets purchased by a single person. Just because each SINGLE TICKET has a 1 in 146,107,692 chance of hitting the jackpot, doesn't mean that every SINGLE PERSON has the same odds. 1 person might have 1 ticket, and another person might have 5 tickets. That's why the odds of winning the jackpot are d... [ More ]

Reply #58

Coin Toss — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 14:37:21 GMT

Guru101

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4

If you continue that 146/5 13 more times, for a total of 14, then the odds become zero . That's the flaw in it.

14 x $5 = $70, that's where the 70 came from.

You don't realize you're promoting the idea that you could take the odds down to nothing with $70.

That's why the 5 tickets reducing them by 117 million (146 - 29) is flawed.

If it was purely a math problem, yeah- but in math prob... [ More ]

Reply #57

RJOh — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 00:25:49 GMT

I coined the phase Dollar and a Dream six years ago in this post: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/57276

Nice to see some of my old posts are still read.

Reply #56

Guru101 — Mon, 03 Sep 2007 00:02:56 GMT

You're mistaken. You see, the odds of someone winning with 5 tickets is 5 times more likely to occur than someone who has 1 ticket. That's why 146,107,962 was divided by 5. Going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets does not have the same effect. Going from 5 tickets to 10 tickets does not divide that person's odds by 5, it divides it by 2, in effect doubling the persons chances of winning the jackpot.

No duplicates:

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,962

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,962 OR 1 in 29,221,502.4... [ More ]

Reply #55

we;reallwinners — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 23:55:04 GMT

haven't read the thread but I'll buy the tee shirt if you're selling them....

Love that Dollar and a Dream

Reply #54

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 23:41:52 GMT

So if we take the 146 / 5 (to make the numbers simple)

and do the /5 13 more times the odds are zero according to you guys. so why has nobody here won it then, that being the case?

$70 , reduce the odds to zero, and you have a lock.

146/5 = 29.2

so

29.2 /5 = 5.84 (five more tickets), etc...

and so on until you have done this 14 times and the odds are zero .

I'm still not buying it.

Sounds very much like something Custer said about his strategy for going into The Li... [ More ]

Reply #53

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 23:17:56 GMT

I'm glad to see there are a few people who understand. A lot of people seem to be thinking I'm getting rid of combinations, but I'm not. There are still 146,107,512 possibilites, but to EXPRESS the odds as 1/x you have to divide both the numerator and denominator by the same number. So when you say 2/10 is the same as 1/5, you're dividing both the 2 by 2, which is 1, and the 10 by 2, which is 5. It's not getting rid of combinations, it's just EXPRESSING the fraction in a different way.... [ More ]

Reply #52

Todd — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 22:52:27 GMT

Guru101 is correct. 'Nuff said.

Reply #51

RJOh — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 21:35:09 GMT

Reply #50

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 20:57:00 GMT

Dude, you're pointing out the obvious. I KNOW there could be duplicates. The numbers I used in my example were for mathematical demonstration purposes only. If someone is telling me 5 in 146,107,512(no duplicates) is not the same as 1 in 29,221,502.4, then they're basically saying that 2 in 10 is not the same as 1 in 5, and if that's what they're saying then they obviously don't know what they're talking about.

Reply #49

RJOh — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 20:43:02 GMT

DUH!!!!!! I thought the conversation was about buying tickets not combinations. Simply going up to a clerk and asking for $100 worth of lottery tickets doesn't guarantee you will have 100 different combinations (even if you request no duplications). While it's highly unlikely that you would, to be sure you would have to fill out $100 worth of play slips.

Reply #48

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 19:40:52 GMT

DUH!!!!!! I'm talking about NO duplicates! You should have assumed that I was because that's what's been assumed this whole discussion

Reply #47

RJOh — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 19:03:25 GMT

146,107,512 tickets = 146,107,512 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 1(<-Definitely obvious) *Correction! Not so obvious when you're buying more than 100 tickets *randomly. You are assuming there are no duplications and duplications among randomly picked numbers naturally occur. In pick3 some duplication can occur several times before some combinations come up even once.

Duplications among randomly picked combinations have occurred after less than ~5% of the possible combinations have been picked accord... [ More ]

Reply #46

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 18:36:33 GMT

Each SINGLE ticket has a 1 in 146,107,512 chance of being the jackpot winner, but I'm talking about a SINGLE PERSON's odds of winning the jackpot. If a person buys 5 tickets, they own ALL 5 tickets. Your statement about buying 5 tickets 13 more times and winning is wrong.

A SINGLE PERSON's odds of winning the jackpot based off the number of tickets that person has bought:

1 ticket = 1 in 146,107,512

2 tickets = 2 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in 73,053,756

5 tickets = 5 in 146,107,512 OR 1 in... [ More ]

Reply #45

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 18:23:06 GMT

If the odds are 1 in 10 and I buy one ticket, I now have a 1 in 9 chance of winning.

See, that is something that is incorrect. If you have 1 ticket and the odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 10, then YOUR odds are 1 in 10, not 1 in 9. If somebody else has bought 2 tickets, THEIR odds of winning would be 2/10 or 1/5. Do you see how I'm doing this now? I'm just converting the odds so that the numerator is 1. That's all. Whether it's 10 or 146,107,962, if you want to change the numerator or de... [ More ]

Reply #44

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 18:17:51 GMT

I do? What you are doing either knowingly or unknowingly trying to convince people that if 1 ticket is 146 million to one, and 5 tickets are 29 million to one, all you have to do is play 5 tickets 13 more times and the odds are 0!

They may work in Once upon a time stories where there is no real money involved, but the reality is whether you buy one ticket or 1,000 tickets each ticket is up against 146 million to one odds (Powerball game). It's as simple as that.

What obvously isn't simp... [ More ]

Reply #43

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 17:05:29 GMT

So basically your saying I'm wrong when I say that if a person has bought 5 tickets, their odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 29,221,592.4? If that's what your saying then you need to go back to grade school.

Reply #42

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 16:58:30 GMT

What debate? I spotted erroneous information- five tickets taking approx. 146 million to one odds to approx. 29 million to one odds - going by that, with a small bankroll you could actually put the odds in your favor!

Why, how do the lottereis stay in business offering those kind of games?

Fractionalize all you want, every set of numbers is up against the same max odds- regardless of how many sets of numbers played. The only variable is how much each person is willing to spend.

Have a... [ More ]

Reply #41

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 16:38:05 GMT

It IS fractions! If you have 1 ticket, your chances of winning are 1 in 146,107,962. If you have 5 tickets, your chances of winning are 1 in 29,221,592.4, which is the same as 5 in 146,107,962! You have to count every ticket you bought! You own ALL 5 tickets! Why the hell did you all start a debate about this? All I'm doing is converting a fraction. Why do you care if I'm converting it? You do it your way, and I'll do it my way. It's the same number and it's correct! All this over something so s... [ More ]

Reply #40

SmoothJuice — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 15:49:24 GMT

Thanks Todd for being the only person in this thread to answer my question.

Why argue about chances of winning. Don't we all know that it's a very slim chance

Reply #39

justxploring — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 06:48:58 GMT

There was no magic bullet in the JFK assasination and there's no magic dollar in lotto.

Coin Toss, didn't you see the X-Files episode that explained the whole JFK assassination?

Seriously, I think this discussion could go on forever. I was going to quote Jarasan's post on the first page since I think he explains it very well as do you. It really doesn't matter what people say the numbers are and if 1 in 29M is the same as 5 in 146M, etc. Buying 5 tickets does little to incr... [ More ]

Reply #38

Raven62 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 06:27:00 GMT

Put what ever spin you want on it: The fact still remains the odds of the game didn't change by purchasing more tickets.

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86508/203595

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86508/204214

Reply #37

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 04:59:55 GMT

Oy vey, here we go.

We're not talking 'fractions', we're talking one winning set of numbers out of 146,107,962.

Only one wins.

No matter how many you play, each ticket, each set of your numbers can only do this:

1 / 146, 107, 962nd of all combinations.

That's the only fraction involved here, and each and every one of your dollars, no matter how many of them you are willing to spend, each and every one, one by one, can only be involved with that fraction. There's no power of 10... [ More ]

Reply #36

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 04:15:11 GMT

It's not misleading! It's math! Learn how to convert fractions

Reply #35

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 04:08:49 GMT

CT, that is correct. That is stating the obvious. Only one combination can win the jackpot.

But the discussion is not about the obvious.

It is about a fallacy that is put forth about chances. Playing more than 1 ticket increases your odds two-fold for each additional ticket played. This is untrue, unless the number of tickets played starts approaching the number of possible combos your chances remain the same. You and I agree on this.

Telling someone that they have somehow changed the... [ More ]

Reply #34

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 03:37:59 GMT

If someone has bought 5 tickets for a single drawing, they have a 1 in 29,221,592.4 chance of winning the jackpot. I know I'm right. I'm not interested in looking at it any differently than that.

Reply #33

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 03:36:23 GMT

Only one combination can win.

A ticket may have five lines of numbers representing five combinations on it, but only one of them can be the winner.

Every line of numbers ( in the game discussed) has odds of 146,107,962:1.

No matter how many lines (sets) of numbers are played, each set is up against the same odds.

$100 worth of tickets reduces the combinations not covered by 100, $1,000 worth of different sets of numbers reduces the combinations left by 1,000.

There was no magi... [ More ]

Reply #32

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 03:29:56 GMT

There you go

Reply #31

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 03:28:35 GMT

I think you are starting to understand. You are correct in the mechanics of reducing the fraction.

But like you say you are converting it. The draw is all inclusive, it is a singular event, by having 5 tickets doesn't reduce the size of the possibilities by five, because you would have to be able to apply the 5 tickets simultaneously to five reduced sets of possible outcomes, that is not what happens. You are trying to MATCH one of the 146,107,962 to one of your 5. Look at it like this, i... [ More ]

Reply #30

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 03:02:58 GMT

There isn't 29,221,592.4 possible outcomes! There are 146,107,962 possible outcomes

Reply #29

Stack47 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:56:51 GMT

You're saying you have 1 chance to win out of every 29,221.592.4 possible outcomes, but I'm assuming each chance is a different combination and only 1 of those 5 chances can win so why not just compare that 1 chance to win to the 146,107,957 combinations you don't have.

If you want fractions, divide your 5 chances by 146,107,962 and you'll get the exact percentage.

Reply #28

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:41:24 GMT

I did not say 5 sets of 29,221,592.4 possibilities. You have 5/146,107,962 OR 1/29,221,592.4 chance of winning the jackpot. You still have 5 sets of 146,107,962 possibilities. I'm just converting it so that the numerator is 1.

Reply #27

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:26:02 GMT

Mathematically you are correct, you know fractions. But we are talking lottery, the denominator doesn't change until the numerator begins approaching the denominator.

You are not applying those 5 numbers to five unique sets of possibilities, you are not covering 5 sets of 29,22,592.4 possibilities uniquely, again I will ask differently:

What set of 29,22,592.4 possibilities are you applying each of your 5 tickets to the draw that has a total of 146,107,962 possibilities?

It is h... [ More ]

Reply #26

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:11:46 GMT

No argument, it is an excellent approach.

Reply #25

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:10:36 GMT

Are you saying I'm wrong? It's fractions man! You don't get it! If you want to change the numerator of a fraction, then you have to change the denominator as well. To change the 5 to a 1, you divide by 5, then you have to divide 146,107,962 by the same amount which is 29,221,592.4.

Reply #24

Stack47 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:06:27 GMT

It's not to argue but if I buy one ticket with each of the 42 pb numbers, each ticket has a 1 in 3,478,761 chance of winning the jackpot.

But that if I buy 100 tickets I have 100 chances in 146,107,962 possible outcomes and not 1 chance out of every 1,461,079.62 combinations.

Reply #23

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:03:09 GMT

Here it is, you have to try and conceptualize differently and focus:

Actually when you play the lottery it is this: It helps if you turn your calculator off.

5/146,107,962 = 1/146,107,962 + 1/146,107,962 + 1/146,107,962 + 1/146,107,962 + 1/146,107,962 .

Not this:

5/146,107,962 = 1/29,221,592.4

In which 29,221,592.4 tickets do you put each of your 5 tickets

Reply #22

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 01:51:45 GMT

I know I'm correct.

5/146,107,962 = 1/29,221,592.4

the same as

5/20 = 1/4.

Reply #21

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 01:51:01 GMT

Set theory applied here works, If you are going for the PBALL, your played set has all 42 PBALL possible outcomes --> SET B (your plays for the PBALL) has all the possible outcomes for SET A, the 42 balls in play for that draw.

SET B approached SET A ; SET B = SET A a guaranteed match.

Reply #20

Stack47 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 01:34:11 GMT

That's because there are only 5 numbers in each combo; (55 x 54 x 53 x 52 x 51) / (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) = 3,478,761 combos. Multiply that by the 42 pb numbers to get the total number of combos (146,107,962). If somebody played all the combos with 1 pb number they would have a 1 in 42 chance of hitting the jackpot. Or they could play all the pb numbers and have a 1 in 3,478,761 chance of hitting the jackpot.

The Florida Lotto has 6 numbers in each combo so it's (53 x 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48) / (6... [ More ]

Reply #19

jarasan — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 01:29:15 GMT

The tix you purchased are all in play at the same time, pretend you don't know anything and read this:

Lets try another way of looking at this discussion of odds, it hasn't popped up in a while so I will attempt another way to look at this topic.

This is what JX, Raven and the Pac are saying and I agree.

It is more of a set theory perspective than say: odds or fractions: it is much simpler.

I am sure we all agree that each draw is ONE event, the event (Mega r... [ More ]

Reply #18

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 01:07:21 GMT

If I buy a 2nd ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,961 (146,107,960 remaining)

If I buy a 3rd ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,960 (146,107,959 remaining)

If I buy a 4th ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,959 (146,107,958 remaining)

If I buy a 5th ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,958 (146,107,957 remaining)

Those are incorrect because you also have to take into consideration the previous ones that you have purchased. If you have 5 tickets, y... [ More ]

Reply #17

Raven62 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 00:34:20 GMT

If I buy 1 ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,962 (146,107,961 remaining)

If I buy a 2nd ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,961 (146,107,960 remaining)

If I buy a 3rd ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,960 (146,107,959 remaining)

If I buy a 4th ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,959 (146,107,958 remaining)

If I buy a 5th ticket my chance of Winnng is:

1 in 146,107,958 (146,107,957 remaining)

So buying more Tickets doesn't improve your chanc... [ More ]

Reply #16

Guru101 — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 00:24:59 GMT

Actually there are 3,478,761 white ball combinations. The reason why the PowerBall website lists your odds of getting 5/5 + 0 as 1 in 3,563,608.83 has to do with this statement from the PowerBall website:

YOUR ODDS / PROBABILITIES ARE WRONG.

A common question is why the odds for winning the prize for matching 1 red ball out of 42 is not 1 in 42. The answer is that you must match the red ball ALONE to win the prize. If you match one or more white balls, you win some other prize, but... [ More ]

Reply #15

Todd — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 00:24:26 GMT

It has absolutely happened many times before (winning on one pick), and if you search the News forum for past winners you will uncover some. However, more people win with multiple picks. That is odds at work, plain and simple. It is the same reason why more winners tend to come from states with large populations.

Jack Whittaker won with $98 in Powerball tickets. (To use an infamous example.

Reply #14

Todd — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 00:21:29 GMT

Reply #13

Guru101 — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 23:58:45 GMT

5/10 = 1/2. 1/2 = 50%.

Reply #12

pacattack05 — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 23:52:56 GMT

1 thru 55 is only 3.5 million?

Funny, 1 thru 53 in Floriduh is about 23 million combos. What Am I missing here?

Afterall you did say ALL combos.

Reply #11

Stack47 — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 23:42:26 GMT

If you bought all the combinations (over 3.5 million) of the 55 numbers, it would give you a 1 in 42 chance of hitting the jackpot.

Reply #10

Stack47 — Sat, 01 Sep 2007 23:33:23 GMT

We've had this discussion many times on LP. Almost everybody argues that I am looking at this all wrong, but I think that buying 10 tickets increases your odds by giving you a 10 in 146,107,962 million shot at winning

Naw, you expressed it right and you would have been equally correct if had said 1 in 14,610,796.2 shot of winning. The math is the same as playing all 42 pb numbers. But if you want to know what percentage of all possible combinations, you would have to divide 10 by 146,107,96... [ More ]