Probability related question

Reply #11

Mike Frazier — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 09:37:32 GMT

The chances that a given combination will hit over time equals 1 minus the odds that it will not hit. In the case of Powerball, with 2 drawings per week, the odds that a given combination will hit over the 45-year period I hypothesized in a previous message is roughly 1 in 3122. These are also the odds of winning over the same period with a new combination every draw.

Over 483 years (50,232 draws), the odds don't improve much: 1 in 2909.

For 50/50 odds, you'd need around 100 million draws... [ More ]

Reply #10

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 20:10:48 GMT

In a previous discussion about playing the same numbers (I forget the specific game) it was stated that a set of numbers will hit - if you have 483 years to wait it out.

Reply #9

Mike Frazier — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 11:20:06 GMT

D D,

I sympathize. I only spend about $4 per week. I buy one ticket for each drawing of the Powerball and the state lottery. I have to drive out of state to get them, so I buy a 15-draw multi-draw ticket once every 7 1/2 weeks. On the days that I buy my tickets, I pick up a few scratchers; my wife likes them, but I admit I'd probably buy a few for myself if she didn't. :)

The odds of winning are not good, but they are zero if I don't participate at all; and the difference between good and... [ More ]

Reply #8

DownandDirty — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 10:41:22 GMT

To answer the original question, unless you can use a little/alot of all methods you need to employ the right strategy to narrow a given nights selection down. Very challenging. However, playing the same numbers every day(waiting for them to pop..someday/year) is an expensive option. You gotta keep changing your sets slightly every day.

Seconds to respond to Mikes post....the every day is a new day mindset is so bleak(true as it may be) The voice of reality, I refuse to listen.

I see

Reply #7

Mike Frazier — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 07:56:18 GMT

Hi, ywchin

I haven't been on these forums for a long time, but I see that old myths die hard.

The first thing you have to know is that those little ping pong balls are like Drew Barrymore in the film 50 First Dates ; each day is a completely new day. They have no memory of anything that happened the previous day, or last week, or last month, or last year. They don't know if they have been winning numbers once, twice, forty-three times, or never. The likelihood of any combination is the sa... [ More ]

Reply #6

time*treat — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 07:25:10 GMT

Parts of a system should be dynamic, otherwise it's just a list.

E.g., if your pick-5 system takes 2 hot numbers and 3 cold numbers, then it must track which numbers are hot, warm, cold and change your numbers sets to reflect that.

If you do a running frequency-histogram of the numbers, you will find that they change category over time. The hot numbers (and some of the warm ones) cool down, while some of the others are heating up.

Reply #5

GASMETERGUY — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 03:44:51 GMT

If you have a system that you think will hit a few jackpots then it will, by the nature of systems, give different sets to play based on the changing history of past drawings

Are you thinking that a system should be static and allow the sets to be dynamic

Reply #4

RJOh — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 04:21:45 GMT

Those winning combinations represent less than 3% of the possible combinations. Avoiding the 97+% that are losers is the challenge.

Reply #3

ifoundyou — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 23:02:18 GMT

look a the standard deviation for perdicting the lottery.

Charles

Reply #2

RJOh — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:49:32 GMT

If you're playing a game like MegaMillions, you can pick any one of 4,405,086 winning combinations each drawing and double your money or better. With the average 6/49 game you can do the same with 260,624 winning combinations so you have to figure how your strategy work best for those conditions and where the likely payouts are worth the risk.

Reply #1

time*treat — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 07:04:40 GMT

Best depends on you.

If you expect to only win once in your life, stick with one set of numbers.

If you have a system that you think will hit a few jackpots then it will, by the nature of systems, give different sets to play based on the changing history of past drawings.

Probability related question

ywchin — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 03:52:48 GMT

I've been having these two questions for a long time already but am not too sure what the answers are.

Question1:

Is it better to buy fewer larger systems(and be able to cover more numbers per system) or to buy many more smaller systems(and be able to have much more different combinations of different numbers)?

Question2:

Every subsequent draw is a new set of random numbers. (1st continually changing factor) We have heard that we should base our next dra... [ More ]