A comment on the new Powerball Expectation Values.

Reply #11

ThatScaryChick — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:48:57 GMT

I wasn't planning on getting any, but when I bought my Hot Lotto tickets, I decided to get one quick pick.

Reply #10

justxploring — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:30:02 GMT

I am so proud of myself!

I bought 4 Lotto tickets and 2 Fantasy5 tickets tonight. No PB. Yay! I was able to walk away.

Everyone is so excited about PB in Florida, so it was very tempting, but I can't spend any more money without the lottery becoming a burden, if not an obsession.

Still, I wish everyone good luck tonight. Maybe someone here will win the $105 million.

Reply #9

scorpio — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:19:44 GMT

it's just an honest way for the states to apply a huge education tax for students,so after they graduate,can get laid off

Reply #8

KY Floyd — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 08:56:45 GMT

For the same reason that you wouldn't use the annuity value. The only point of calculating an expectation value is to make the risk to reward an objective quantity. The expectation value is only as realistic as the numbers you use to calculate it, so it has to be based on what you'll actually get and not some imaginary number. For odds of 1 in 195 million the expectation value isn't 1 unless the net is $195 million. Unless perhaps you actually want to share the prize with the government.

Of c... [ More ]

Reply #7

justxploring — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 06:59:00 GMT

I am trying not to purchase any PB tickets, since I am already spending too much, but it's tempting.

My experience talking to customers at lottery retailers tells me most people don't really think about the odds. Over $1.5 million PB tickets were sold in FL in the first 2 days. One woman tonight bought a PB ticket and asked is it just like Lotto? I mentioned that the jackpot is currently much higher, but the odds of winning it are 1:195 million. She answered Well, then it's just like Lotto.... [ More ]

Reply #6

Prob988 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 06:32:05 GMT

Why?

If someone says I make $120,000/year we generally assume he or she doesn't mean after taxes.

People who win at Casinos - who are often required to pay taxes - similarly don't announce it as such.

Why should winning the lottery be different than say, getting to steal huge amounts of money as a CEO of say, Wachovia Bank

Reply #5

adulane62 — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:30:25 GMT

I will play powerball the same way. I never expect to win powerball, but if I do more power to me! All lotteries are a game of chance, regardless of the odds. Play responsibly and have fun

Reply #4

ThatScaryChick — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 05:13:49 GMT

Unfortunately, I won't be. I may put in a dollar or two every now and then, but I now will be focusing on games with better odds.

Reply #3

Mario38 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 05:11:52 GMT

Prob988,

Good analysis. I agree with most of it except I take real exception to how you calculate the expected value. It is imperative that you include the taxes. It is not correct to ignore when calculating the value of a wager. Especially since they reduce the amount won by such a large amount. It is misleading and some people will decide to play based on your analysis when you report an expected value of close to 1.00. I realize that the amount of taxes a person will pay will vary but at l... [ More ]

Reply #2

BaristaExpress — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 02:30:23 GMT

Reply #1

Guru101 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 23:46:33 GMT

I'll probably play the same as I usually do. Even though there's about 50 million more combinations, we're talking about a game that makes state lotto games look puny. In my opinion, both before and now, the odds are so high in this game that it's not really about what your odds are, it's about whether or not you have a ticket, even it's just $1.

A comment on the new Powerball Expectation Values.

Prob988 — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 20:34:39 GMT

In the old 5/55 form of Powerball, the expectation value for the lower prizes - the sum of the payouts for each prize divided by its odds was 0.20 total. (This ignores the Powerplay, which I never play).

The new expectation value for the lower prizes has FALLEN to 0.17, meaning that the powerball - even though the probability of winning ANY prize is slightly higher - is actually, predictably, a worse bet than before.

The expectation value for the jackpot varies with the jackpot, and is a f... [ More ]