Consecutive numbers in the Pick 6 lottery have surprisingly high probability but still < 50%

Reply #34

edge — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 00:55:14 GMT

You are very welcome

Yet another consecutive arrived in NJ P6 game... (below) as someone said on this thread, with sufficient data set (but it has to be large data set!) there might some advantage taken, I dont (unfortunately) perform such deep analysis, rather suspend live-bet on a streak that i see such as 6 draws with consecutive numbers, then unload few dollars (ie preparing to do so on the next draw) so to some degree money management but does it have solid statistical reasoning? no:) ag... [ More ]

Reply #33

ca-dreamin* — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 00:38:00 GMT

Ok I'm watching and playing consecs in Little Lotto and they're pretty good about showing up. LOL now the problem is picking the right ones. Thanks again for bringing consecutives to everyones attention.

Reply #32

edge — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:53:59 GMT

pumpi76 lol, what can i say:)

Speaking of consecutives, latest NJ P6 consecutives numbers dump!

04/20/2009 15 16 20 28 29 39

04/16/2009 04 15 21 22 25 43

04/13/2009 03 04 07 13 27 48

04/09/2009 10 24 27 28 31 47

04/06/2009 04 05 24 32 39 43

Reply #31

pumpi76 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 23:29:41 GMT

and lastly another one for scientist...FIRE, how was invented, they say that a lighting struck a tree and after that man kept feeding it, and if it was lose tree parts i GUESS THEY MOST HAVE BEEN A VAST AMOUNT OF IT, TRAVELING LONG DISTANCE TO LOOK FOR PARTS BECAUSE ALL THE TREE PARTS IN THE FLOOR THEY HAVE CONSUME IT, WHILE THE FIRE DECREASES SLOWLY...How did he feed it, cutting other trees with AN AX when back in those days they didn't have axes...And let me guess, of all the places in the wor... [ More ]

Reply #30

pumpi76 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 21:13:34 GMT

another one to scientist....What about how many kids can we have why we normally have 1 kid who chooses which animal is going to have X amount of youngs at one time and insects, why can insects lay so much eggs at once, why 3 why not 10....Because the resources in the world as LIMITED.....Because if the lion had more than 14 cubs at once humans might not have survived....And in insects had more than 20 or more than 30 eggs at once, it will have been a very difficult world to see in it....BUT AGA... [ More ]

Reply #29

pumpi76 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 20:32:30 GMT

i got another one for Scientist...Women, they are weaker than men why is that for in the animal kingdom they are as strong as the male and in some cases bigger than the male...But why in humans the women is weaker than men...Because if women were as strong as males, lots of women will have been kill and something tells me that their population will have been reduce, there would have been less women than men or less men than women, plus things will have looked different because the history would

Reply #28

pumpi76 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 08:57:05 GMT

but you might be a scientist and i have 1 question for you....There are some diseases that are spread from horses to humans, why because the mosquito drinks the blood of the animal infected and then infects it into another person....And i am just curious why doesn't Aids spreads that way, because i tell you, if Aids was spread that way maybe 98% of the population will have been eliminated...But Nature is a semi complex formula...Let me guess Nature, without a spirit set it that way, Nature all k... [ More ]

Reply #27

pumpi76 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 07:23:06 GMT

oh son do you believe in UFO's; yes i do dad....Big grown folks like you believe in that crap...Only in America...

who is mystical now....

another fallacious belief....when i am in bed i am going to make my girlfriend/wife have 100 orgasm with my 6 inch winnie...Por favor wake up...

Reply #26

pumpi76 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 06:57:15 GMT

Anyways i was referring to the right consecutives from 1 to 10..

between you and me, the one that believes most in mystical would be you more than me..Because you like most people believe that when you die you are going to visit little old daddy named God...Big grown man like you like most people believe in that crap...Who sounds mystical now...

i just said that i didn't think it sounded right and you went and tell me to try mystical...Who is offending who here....

And between you and m... [ More ]

Reply #25

time*treat — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 06:23:17 GMT

In the math forum, we usually do the calculations so that we don't have to rely on how something sounds or feels . Try the mystical section.

Reply #24

pumpi76 — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 18:24:13 GMT

How can there be 5,430,040 combinations with 1 consecutive, when a Pick6/49 has 14 million combination..That doesn't sound right...Anyways i was referring to the right consecutives from 1 to 10....

Reply #23

GASMETERGUY — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 17:36:07 GMT

So true; so true. And even should one go to the expense and record all possible combinations, what good would come of it?

So what we do is write a computer program that will eliminate some combinations and record others. With only one pattern, odd/even sums for example, you will still score many possibilities; too many to record in an Excel spreadsheet.

So we add a second filter , say, consecutive numbers. We run the program again. We get less possibilities but still too many to record.

Reply #22

stribman — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 13:24:25 GMT

play pick 6? figure how big would paper have to be to write down all possible numbers, one inch per number. over 10 football fields.

Reply #21

time*treat — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 02:24:39 GMT

My numbers are in exact agreement with johnph77's total.

He gave the total number of combinations that had at least one consecutive number, I broke them down into 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5s.

Can't say the info will provide everyone with a winning strategy, because not everyone will make the same choices.

Reply #20

edge — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 00:54:31 GMT

thanks GASMETERGUY

absolutely correct! in that sense there is an edge:) well than, take a look at the papers probability table i mentioned previously. in there you can see various % limits of not just consecutives but n-distance in general, in the same way as you have outlined, large data sampling and analyzing just on the threshold of limit, one can optimize distance spread' between the numbers.

for some reason i missed that in my argument.. large data set is required, limits need to be j... [ More ]

Reply #19

GASMETERGUY — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 00:46:49 GMT

Edge

Consecutive numbers is a pattern worth considering. Seeing that 50% seems to be the limiting factor for this pattern, then a quick look over the past drawings should give you a good indication whether to play consecutive numbers or give the pattern a pass.

Take the past x number of draws. Determine what the next draw will do to the pattern. If the next draw will send consecutive numbers past 50%, then you know to avoid the pattern. If the pattern is well below 50%, then you should con... [ More ]

Reply #18

edge — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 00:25:18 GMT

nice, you made numerical confirmation of the mathematical probability results that consecutives will occur just below 50%

based on your first report: (not sure which one is correct, both fall 50 %)

13,983,816 total possibilities 6,924,764 = ~ 49.51 %

second results (one consecutive number)

13,983,816 total possibilities 5,430,040 = ~ 38.3 %

based on larger data point sampling, you will approach 50% and theoretically should not exceed 50% if you do (excluding small margin of error

Reply #17

time*treat — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 01:28:26 GMT

..

49 choose 6

consecs count

0 7,059,052

1 5,430,040

2 1,357,510

3 132,440

4 4,730

5 44

Reply #16

edge — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 00:37:07 GMT

New Jersey Pick 6 consecutives strike again, 3 in a row

04/13/2009 03 04 07 13 27 48

04/09/2009 10 24 27 28 31 47

04/06/2009 04 05 24 32 39 43

Reply #15

GASMETERGUY — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 01:26:55 GMT

IMHO, consecutive numbers are good but not good enough. You will need about 11 more patterns to go with the consecutive numbers. I employ 12 patterns and have found that 12 patterns reduces the field to a point where I might can afford to play.

What I have not found is an algorithym that will identify the next pattern and have that pattern hit. Don't get me wrong. I am not looking for a method to win the lottory each and every time I play. All I am asking of my computer is to be right at leas... [ More ]

Reply #14

ca-dreamin* — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 00:51:00 GMT

I've never looked for consecutive numbers but I'm looking at Little Lotto 5/39 from all angles so here goes: Out of the last 68 games(Feb. 1st to present March 9th) 32 games had at least one pair of consecutive numbers. Out of these..... 15 pairs came from the number group 30-39 and 12 pairs came from the number group 10-19. And out of these 32 pairs.....12 contained at least one number from the previous draw. (I still need to look at the numbers individually to figure out how I would choose a s... [ More ]

Reply #13

johnph77 — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:54:36 GMT

Ran this through my computer. Of the 13,983,816 total possibilities 6,924,764 combinations contained consecutive numbers - that is - IF my programming is correct.

Reply #12

GASMETERGUY — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:34:38 GMT

Well, I read the article. Rather I tried to read the article. I am afraid the math is way over my head. Either that or I am too short.

Consecutive numbers do ocurr about 50% of the time. That is enough of a pattern to be important. What would also be important are patterns that ocurr only 10% of the time. Or 90% of the time. Those 50-50 patterns are so durn troublesome. I would much rather have a pattern that sits at one end or the other of the spectrum. Got any of those you would care to sha... [ More ]

Reply #11

pumpi76 — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 05:12:32 GMT

I also wanted to point out that if you use the Ending digits: it will be 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9, 9-0...Basically 5 consecutives to choose from, then if you pick 1 of them for instance let's say if you pick: 2-3, then it will be 2-3, 12-13, 22-23, 32-33, 42-43, in total 5....Just let's pray that those 5 combined have less combinations...

And not only that but consecutives in the same ending digit don't repeat from the previous drawings so that's 4 consecutives that you have to... [ More ]

Reply #10

edge — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 03:43:18 GMT

fyi recent news:) consecutives is something that abs can not be ignored...

Mega Game 4/3/2009 Winning Numbers: 16-22-38-39-48 +42 (with 1 consecutive number pair: 38-39)

As far as combinatorics, i am keenly interested in truncations such as above (01 thru 15 lost) these are commonly called groups, its not so much relation, so skip the thought:) but relations odds/even is a good question insofar as what is the probability of having an odd-odd or even-even pair in set of let say 56 while lea... [ More ]

Reply #9

pumpi76 — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 03:29:45 GMT

plus the even/odd filters, plus high/low filters, plus high ending digits/low ending digts filter, plus spread filters....That's if you like, but i think you would have to do it because Powerball has some staggering odds/amount of combinations...

if you get into combinatorics and get the right consecutive you will still need to lower the amount of combinations...I think....

Reply #8

edge — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 02:51:38 GMT

solid ideas!

Important though is to get idea about probability differentials, (will need to enroll back in combinatorics class at some college:) why i say differential is that although is quite a feat to get exact numbers right, any slight probability % variation (as ie 50% for 49 game for consecutives and therefore play the opposite and skip draws when some high occurance of consecutives happen) will give you an advantage over reasonable amount of time, all of it can be calculated and probab... [ More ]

Reply #7

pumpi76 — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 02:32:47 GMT

Thanks edge, you also gave me an idea about deducing...Don't worry what deducing is..

Not only could it be consecutives, but it could be 2 numbers difference, like instead of being: 8-9-22-29-36-39.. it could be 8-10-22-29-36-39....I wonder how many combinations that have 2 number difference exist? I know there are a few just like consecutives...

for like in Powerball from november of las year to present i noticed that there was like 2 consecutives but there were more 2 number differences.... [ More ]

Reply #6

edge — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 01:09:50 GMT

oops, paper was based on the 49 numbers game (not 40 numbers game) so i still owe to myself and you firm confirmation of the 50% probability for varieties of game systems.

Reply #5

edge — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 00:45:58 GMT

Speaking of consecutives:)

New Jersey Cash 5 winning numbers Today (Friday , April 03, 2009 ) were: 09-19-31-37-38 jackpot rolled to $290,000.

so... we have almost perfect agreement between theoretical paper and practice (every second draw) (almost perfect as of 4/1 draw had 2 pairs of consecutives not 1)

04/03/2009 09 19 31 37 38

04/01/2009 11 12 13 25 33

Reply #4

edge — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 21:59:22 GMT

My pleasure!

Given some time i will try to calculate probability odds for mega and power ball as well as Keno (Keno consecutive numbers probability i immediately see as higher, not formally but by just looking at draw history patterns) these probabilities might not give you an edge insofar predicting actual numbers, but they might just give a hand in applying best possible ratio (mixture) of different distance between the numbers .

For calculations i will use Math Cad, or Mathematica (math... [ More ]

Reply #3

marlon39 — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 21:41:30 GMT

Thanks Edge. I will read this.

Reply #2

GASMETERGUY — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:49:31 GMT

I can see where this article might be important and infomative. I will read it later. Thanks for bringing it to our attention

Reply #1

edge — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:19:56 GMT

Want to add that on page 6 of this paper a fascinating table is displayed (hesitant to reproduce it here due to possible copyrights)

Table 1: The probabilities that the winning set of numbers of the standard Lottery has a minimum distance k

The probability as function of distance between numbers (starting with k=1 for consecutive numbers) increases and reaches 100% when k = 10

Nice median point seem to be for distance k = 4, where probablity jumps to 90% (from 76% for 4) after k 4 it

Consecutive numbers in the Pick 6 lottery have surprisingly high probability but still < 50%

edge — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 23:42:03 GMT

Found this formal paper on the subject, hope it can benefit anyone developing winning strategies, paper uses Pick 6 game for its study model, and results will most likely be different for some other lottery system.

Paper formulates calculation as function of a distance between winning lottery numbers and could have further applications in studying other types of relations between winning lottery numbers.

The fact that chance is 50% (sort of surprising) to a degree does substantiate using n... [ More ]