Do you think the Mega Millions Jackpot will get much higher??

Reply #19

LottoL — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 09:37:54 GMT

I don't think its going to roll, although anything can happen, especially when its programmed to!

Best Of Luck

Reply #18

KY Floyd — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 05:40:28 GMT

Almost anything can happen, and it doesn't matter what the jackpot is. Suppose they only sold one ticket for the drawing. The jackpot would only go up by 32 cents, but there could still be one winner. Sell only 5 tickets and there could be 5 winners, even though that possibility is incredibly unlikely. OTOH, they could theoretically sell 175,711,535 of the 175,711 536 combinations* and it could still roll over.

The probabilities are easy to calculate and we can speculate all we want, but in t... [ More ]

Reply #17

Prob988 — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 19:17:50 GMT

The overall probability, as a Poisson distribution, for yesterday's sales, for a rollover was approximately 65%. There was a 28% probability of one winner, a 6% chance of 2 winners, and about 0.9% chance of 3 winners.

Yesterday's sales, by the way, established a new record for sales on a thirteenth draw.

The largest amount of sales ever to produce a rollover in this MM matrix was 110,612,211, on March 3, 2007. The rollover probability in that case was around 53%, slightly more probable tha... [ More ]

Reply #16

RJOh — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:57:55 GMT

The above statement can be changed to:

The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 08/21/09 which had total sales of ~$77,000,000 and it rolled

Which proves anything can happen when the jackpot is $200M+.

Reply #15

LottoL — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 04:58:25 GMT

No MegaMillion Jackpot Winners for Friday, 8/21/2009.

Next Jackpot 252 Million.

Best Of Luck,

LottoL

Reply #14

Prob988 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 22:30:02 GMT

The situation is covered by what is known as a poissan distribution, which reflects the fact that the larger the percentage of covered numbers is, the larger the probability that the next ticket purchased will match a previous one purchased.

Based on previous sales for this drawing, one can show that the most likely outcome is still another rollover.

However there is a non-zero probability of many other outcomes.

I follow these statistics quite regularly. It is very rare, given the huge... [ More ]

Reply #13

DC81 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:42:44 GMT

I don't care if it hits tonight or rolls a dozen more times before doing so as long as I'm the one holding the winning ticket when it is won.

Reply #12

RJOh — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:14:36 GMT

When the MegaMillions or PowerBall jackpots reach $200M+, anything can happen. The charts for PowerBall shows its $250M jackpot on 08/19/09 was won with only $65,842,626 in ticket sales which at best only covered 1/3 of the possible combinations.

Reply #11

KY Floyd — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:56:09 GMT

The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 12/12/08 which had total sales of $77,666,082

It was a long, hot day yesterday, and my brain was overheated. I forgot to account for only about 1/3 of sales going to the jackpot, so the sales they're estimating should be about 3 times what I said, which puts it pretty close to an even 70 million tickets. A rollover is still the most likely result by a considerable margin.

I would venture to think that about 70-75% of the numbers will be covered t... [ More ]

Reply #10

fja — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:49:14 GMT

Yeah your right, I totally read the graph wrong...

everybody can disregard my comments,,,I made a big a calculation error....

Reply #9

RJOh — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 14:39:45 GMT

The last time MM jackpot was $207M was on 12/12/08 which had total sales of $77,666,082 and it was won.

Reply #8

fja — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 14:23:12 GMT

Date Jackpot Total Sales California Georgia Illinois Maryland Massachusetts Michigan New Jersey New York Ohio Texas Virginia Washington

(Millions) Population Population Population Population Population Population Population Population Population Population Population Population

36,756,666 9,685,744 12,901,563 5,633,597 6,497,967 10,003,422 8,682,661 19,490,297 11,485,910 24,326,974 7,769,089 6,549,224

8/21/2009 $207 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

8/18/2009 $170 $52,720,367 $7,659,... [ More ]

Reply #7

gopher07 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 01:26:45 GMT

DUMB QUESTION ....LP PERSON WILL WIN IT NEXT DRAW

Reply #6

RJOh — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 00:58:48 GMT

Lottoreport has a chart showing tickets sales and jackpot amounts going back to 2004. Comments in my post were based on those figures.

snip /mmsales.htm

This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 23:25:27 GMT

Have you ever noticed that if they're both small and one rolls the other is likely to roll? It has nothing to do with what happens with the other game, and everything to do with how many tickets are sold. The lower the jackpot is the less likely that there will be a winner. The bigger it is the more likely there will be a winner, but it's almost never big enough that a winner is more likely than a roll.

Selling 50% of the combinations, is extremely unlikely until sales get a lot higher than 8... [ More ]

Reply #4

Todd — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:48:11 GMT

Reply #3

hearsetrax — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:07:55 GMT

Reply #2

four4me — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:09:46 GMT

Its a 50/50 bet it will either grow or be won. No one can answer that question with any certainty.

With the economy being what it is and millions of people playing Mega no doubt people who never bought a ticket before will by one now. Chances favor it being won soon.

Reply #1

RJOh — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:56:17 GMT

It really doesn't matter to me because once it reaches $200M, I'm one of those millions who start playing hoping to win a piece of the jackpot.

With the additional players buying even more tickets, tickets sales can amount to $80M or more which means there's a good chance that 50% of the possible combinations will be sold which also means there a 50% chance someone will win it. It has been won many times in the past with lower ticket sales.

Last year when the jackpot reached $370M, ticke... [ More ]

Do you think the Mega Millions Jackpot will get much higher??

petergrfn — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:25:56 GMT

It seems to me that if Powerball and MM are both large at the same time and one of them is hit then ineveitably the other gets hit in the next couple of draws..........I would like to see another $300 + jackpot or even a record breaking $400 million plus......Anyone think there's a chance