What is the probability of this happening again?

Reply #18

truecritic — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:28:48 GMT

Thanks

Reply #17

sunjune6 — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:26:08 GMT

I will give it a try. First I will need a since hit/frequency chart:

1st 2nd 3rd

1 4 20 36

2 3 7 2

3 1 18 25

4 2 1 22

5 9 6 1

6 18 2 3

7 6 3 27

8 28 4 4

9 5 21 23

0 32 28 6

From the chart above the last draw is 345 indicated by the 1's. Two drawings ago the number was 462 indicated by the 2's. Now for me to pick the next likely draw my selections would be:

As first digit I would choose 1 2 3 4

As second digit I would choose 4 6 7 8

As third digit I... [ More ]

Reply #16

truecritic — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:32:38 GMT

Can you explain by way of an example what you do

Reply #15

sunjune6 — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:15:21 GMT

You'all are flipping me out. When it comes to the high's and low's I simply use all double digits since a digit hit as high and any digit that hit in the past 4 drawings as low.

This leaves out a lot but the only numbers left out are digits that hasn't hit in the last 5,6,7,8, and 9 drawings. I win quite often with this method.

Those digits come up, yes; but not as often as the ones from the last four drawings and digits that hasn't hit in 10 draws or more. Now use this method and you will... [ More ]

Reply #14

CARBOB — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:35:22 GMT

How right you are! It's nice to know, for questions like these, we have brilliant minds that will come forward with the solution. Thanks to both of them.

Reply #13

truecritic — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 04:09:51 GMT

@ KY Floyd

@ JADELottery

Not that I ever needed those particular questions answered but glad you guys are around for all the statistics/probabilities/math! Thank you.

Reply #12

JADELottery — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:13:23 GMT

Well, OK... here is the expansion and more than just a 3 non-consecutive flips. I've expanded it to 5 non-consecutive flips. Below is a table with just the counts. You can figure the Probability by taking the count and dividing by the value, 2n, where n is the number of flips; to get the percentage, multiply by 100. Also, I have found that the counts are related to the number of non-consecutives in determining the progression sequence. It's a play on the basic idea of the Fibonacci Sequence by e... [ More ]

Reply #11

JADELottery — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 18:28:58 GMT

It's just a matter of setting up the proper testing IF statements; you can use the same set of outcomes and reform the testing IF condition. To understand this correctly, you are looking for a condition when there are no 1's in a triple consecutive sequence, i.e. ( 1 1 1

Reply #10

KY Floyd — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 17:08:02 GMT

Where you went wrong is not considering ALL possibilities.

I was dismissing some of the possibilities, albeit indirectly, and it took a while to find the fault in my logic.

I'm glad to see that the number of outcomes with no back to back flips follows the Fibonacci sequence. If it wasn't for that saving grace I'd be completely dismayed at seeing the calculations. Most math is fairly elegant, and most probability follows a fairly direct path of factorials or squares, and simple arithmetic... [ More ]

Reply #9

Raven62 — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 20:29:32 GMT

Now, the question is going to have to be ...... What is the probability of tossing a coin 36 times without getting 2 Tails in a row? At least for now....thats the question. LOL

It really doesn't matter: Heads They Win, Tails You Lose! LOL

Reply #8

JADELottery — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 20:24:22 GMT

You're right about the 50 Back-to-Back flips; it's an Excel computation issue. It actually should be 1125866955562525. It s caused by the fact that Excel tunicates the number after a certain number of digits; in this case 15 digits and the 5 was dropped.

Buuut... you are wrong about the calculation of probability; in this case, the probability of No Back-to-Back. Where you went wrong is not considering ALL possibilities. That's what the table shows. So, let's go through the progression. We'll... [ More ]

Reply #7

KY Floyd — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:56:36 GMT

It is that simple. What you've done is list all possible outcomes and the ratio between two types of outcomes, and assumed that the ratio can be used to determine the probabilty of one unlikely set of possible outcomes. That works for the possible outcomes of a single event, but not multiple iterations, as in this case. In essence you're using each new flip to change the probability of previous flips.

Let's start from flip # 2 and then look at what happens with flip # 3. As you correctly note... [ More ]

Reply #6

JADELottery — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:14:27 GMT

It's not quite that simple an equation. The progression of No Back-to-Back and Back-to-Back Bit Flips or Coin Tosses is as follows:

Bit Flips or Possible Outcomes Odds Probability of Probability of

Coin Tosses No Back-to-Back Back-to-Back NBB : BB No Back-to-Back Back-to-Back

2 3 1 1 : 0.33 75.0000% 25.0000%

3 5 3 1 : 0.60 62.5000% 37.5000%

4 8 8 1 : 1.00 50.0000% 50.0000%

5 13 19 1 : 1.46 40.6250% 59.3750%

6 21 43 1 : 2.05 32.8125% 67.1875%

7 34 94 1... [ More ]

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 05:16:03 GMT

What is the probability of tossing a coin 38 times without getting 2 Tails in a row?

I guess a good way to frame this is to take it as ......( 2 tosses equal = 1 event) So far we have had 18 2 toss events

Nope. Tossing a coin 38 times gives you 37 2 toss events. Each event starts with the first of 2 consecutive tosses, and ends with the following toss. Toss 1 starts the first event and toss 2 finishes it, but #2 is also the start of the 2nd event:

1 2

2 3

3 4

.

.

.

37

Reply #4

WIN D — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 00:05:29 GMT

059 hit tonight ....... from the Mostly to ALL High group ...... again. Mostly Odd too.

Now the question will have to be.... What is the probability of tossing a coin 38 times without getting 2 Tails in a row?

I guess a good way to frame this is to take it as ......( 2 tosses equal = 1 event) So far we have had 18 2 toss events .....and 18 negative outcomes. If tomorrow is also another Mostly to ALL High..... it will be 19 negative outcomes in a row. wow...

Someone betting the

Reply #3

WIN D — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:51:03 GMT

The 500 Mostly to ALL LOW Group or The Tails side of the Coin . 50/50

Pure ALL LOWS ....10 singles +20 doubles and 5 trips 000 111 222 333 444

244, 334, 001, 344, 002, 011, 003, 012, 004, 013, 022, 112, 014, 023, 113, 122, 024, 033, 114, 123, 034, 124, 133, 223, 044, 134, 224, 233, 144, 234

The Mostly Low Group... 375 of them

005, 006, 007, 008, 009, 015, 016, 017, 018, 019, 025, 026, 027, 028, 029, 035, 036, 037, 038, 039, 045, 046, 047, 048, 049, 050, 051, 052, 053,

Reply #2

WIN D — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:27:59 GMT

Hello Ky Floyd ....good to know your around. This was a confusing term to someone not used to PICK 3 language. Sorry about that. I used a term which is pretty well known within the Pick 3 Hobby Player community.... Mostly to ALL HIGH ...Mostly to ALL LOW..... Mostly to all Even .....Mostly to all ODD.

What this pretty commonly used phrase indicates to mostly to ALL of us is.... LOL The 10 pure numbers in each of those groups...... as well as the numbers which contain 2 of the named group dig... [ More ]

Reply #1

KY Floyd — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:22:19 GMT

All high/ all low isn't a 500/500 proposition. High and low each have 5 digits, so there are 125 (5*5*5) numbers that qualify. That means that you should expect all high (as well as all low, all odd, or all even) in 1 of every 8 drawings. Since the odds of having it happening again in the next drawing would also be 1 in 8, we would expect it to happen twice in a row once every 64 drawings. Compare that to once in every 4 for flipping a coin.

The probability that it won't happen for any number... [ More ]

What is the probability of this happening again?

WIN D — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:06:48 GMT

Odds never change ......but the probabilities do.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Say ..... can you toss a coin 33 times in a row ......and never get 2 heads in a row ?

Well, Ga Eve Pick 3 game can.

Heads and Tails ..... Odd/Even High/LOw

Mostly to all High // Mostly to all Lows 500 of each out of the P3 1000 right ?

Ga Eve has not had back to back Mostly to all Low ........ since Aug 27th ! Today is Sept 30Th.