Listings of Jackpot > odds?

Reply #12

jwhou — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:48:17 GMT

Using the ratio of the jackpot to the odds as a decision maker as to whether or not to purchase a ticket has it's roots in what people remember of University probability courses. Basically many of us were taught to sum up the product between the value of the outcome and the probability of the outcome as the expected return of an outcome and indeed this is how many large business decisions are made but when used for a typical pick style lottery, there are two fundamental flaws.

The first flaw... [ More ]

Reply #11

cablepunk — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:45:23 GMT

test jst a test

Reply #10

Coin Toss — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:28:08 GMT

RJOh,

Maybe population plays a part.

The Little Lotto gets pumped up pretty good when it gets around $360,000 or so. I'm not sure if it's the formula used to add to the jackpot or just increased play.

The Pick 6 on the other hand, just grinds.

Reply #9

RJOh — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 03:19:06 GMT

Ohio Rolling Cash5 is a 5/39 game too but I don't ever remember its jackpot getting over $575,757. Illinois Little Lotto must have a different formula for contributing to its jackpot 'cause it seems to get over that amount often. It's that or players in Ohio are better at picking winners. The jackpot always starts out at $100,000 and once in a while rolls to over $300,000.

Reply #8

Coin Toss — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 23:15:29 GMT

Here's two examples from actual results in the Illinois Little Lotto this year.

It's a 5/39 game , odds against that are 575,757 to one.

QP means the ticket was a QP, if there's nothing behind it, then it was the player's pick.

The jackpot for this draw was $1,025,000, 4 players split it

LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 05, 2009

WINNING NUMBERS: 03 - 05 - 06 - 11 - 18

PLAYERS MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS

INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS 4

EACH PLAYER WILL REC... [ More ]

Reply #7

Coin Toss — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:00:21 GMT

goododds,

Jackpot than odds doesn't really happen that often, for one thing.

For another, it doesn;t do anything to change the odds, the jackpot is more, that's all. You''re still up against odds of 176 million or 195 million to one (5 + 1) and 20 million to one in many Pick 6 games.

You also can't assume you'll be the one to hit.

And you can't assume no one else hits if you do. Here's why I repeatd that;

Let's say there's a Pick 5 game with odds of 100,000 to one. No one has hit... [ More ]

Reply #6

goododds — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 15:55:19 GMT

The odds against winning any substantial prize are steep enough that the logic of considering the odds is rather illogical

to me, i'm rationalizing the reason to play. lotteries are a tax on the stupid unless they're playing for entertainment (ie: like $10 to watch a movie), unless the jackpot odds.

so when jackpot (pre-tax) odds, then that's the trigger point at where i play.

Makes sense in my mind

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:59:59 GMT

But why include taxes? everyone pays taxes, no?

I took taxes into account because they determine how much you actually get. You're balancing risk and reward, and the point at which they're equal is when buying every combination would result in breaking even by recovering what was spent. In other words, buying all 175,711,536 combinations by spending $175,711,536 would win back the $175,711,536 that was spent. Of course much of the money is returned to players in the form of smaller prizes, b... [ More ]

Reply #4

goododds — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:34:41 GMT

thx.

i did mean lump sum odds, but did not mean taxes.

ie:

MM is like 1:175M. Usually lump sum is ~1/2 jackpot advertised. So jackpot would have to be ~$350M for it to be odds.

But why include taxes? everyone pays taxes, no

Reply #3

RJOh — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:56:40 GMT

A few years back there was an international group that looked for such jackpots. They played the Virgina lottery and won by attempting to play all of its possible combinations and were featured on the TV show How they do that .

They were the only winner and did so by taking over three Seven Eleven store terminals for three days in a an attempt to run cards with all the possible combinations. Afterward, most states changed the rules of their games to limit the length of time a group or indivi... [ More ]

Reply #2

Coin Toss — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:49:34 GMT

goododds,

Everything KY Floyd pointed out above, and let's add this, we can never assume a solo jackpot. So even if it ws one of those cases where there is more in the kitty than the odds against hitting it (happens in Pick 5 gamesa few times a year), if you did hit it, and have to split it, the payout greatehr than odds factor goes right out the window.

Reply #1

KY Floyd — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:08:45 GMT

If there is one it would probably have been mentioned, but I don't recall ever seeing anything about one. If one exists, it would be a lot of effort for very little information, because it's an extremely unusual situation.

The way I see it, if you're going to compare the jackpot to the odds you need to look at the actual net, which is usually no more than 40% of the advertised jackpot. The record MM jackpot paid about $230 million in cash. After paying 35% in federal taxes that would have lef... [ More ]

Listings of Jackpot > odds?

goododds — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 16:45:18 GMT

Is there a listing where the JAckpot is greater than the odds of winning