Actually, the probability of $300 M jackpots in MM is slightly higher with new states.

Reply #2

Prob988 — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:48:00 GMT

I agree with most of what you say.

The media however is claiming that they do know.

I just hope that MM and PB will be kept intact and not replaced by a $2 lottery with ridiculously higher odds, although the odds are already ridiculously high.

I choose to play, myself, based on expectation values, and such a move might effectively mean I will hardly ever play either lottery.

I like when the expectation value approaches 1, which it sometimes does with existing MM and, less often, with... [ More ]

Reply #1

chuck32 — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:02:17 GMT

Using pure numbers, the average jackpot will be the same. Just more more hits more often. As this writer points out, as coverage goes up, so do sales, so does coverage, and so on. More sales means more coverage and more hits, but is also means higher jackpots. One of those magical reciprocity things.

But there is an unknown. Where humans are involved, you can't use pure numbers. No one can predict exactly what will happen with four jackpot draws per week. You have to start over with sales ex... [ More ]

Actually, the probability of $300 M jackpots in MM is slightly higher with new states.

Prob988 — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 02:54:23 GMT

I did an analysis of the probability of $300M jackpots in MM with 1.7 as large a population as is currently obtained, using average sales for each drawing compiled over several years.

The number, 1.7, is all (PB states population + MM population)/(MM population).

I then used a poisson distribution for 0 winners (a rollover) showing with these sales figures for each drawing.

I then multiplied each previous rollover probability for all drawings (product) to find the overall probability of... [ More ]