Ideas for Bayesian Networks & prediction

Reply #14

LANTERN — Sun, 02 May 2010 01:19:45 GMT

GASMETERGUY

I do for sure have posted a lot.

For sure, filtering is not the only way to go, for one thing there is prediction by probability , there might be more than one way in which that might work.

One of those possible ways was used for the digits predictions posted on the Tx Tread some time ago and I guess that it worked fair enough, until the Tx Lottery found some way to defeat that method.

But know that predictions by filters is also another way of doing prediction by probabi... [ More ]

Reply #13

GASMETERGUY — Sat, 01 May 2010 17:18:54 GMT

Lantern

After your hiatus from Lottory Post, you returned with the comment that you would post again some of your thoughts. I replied at that time that you had a lot of posting to do. The reason I said that was due to the fact I search this site all the time. I will go back to day one and re-read all that was posted for many, many hours. I have yet to travel from Day One to Present Day in one sitting; there are just too many posts. But you had a lot to say back in the day and I found them ext... [ More ]

Reply #12

LANTERN — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 05:22:56 GMT

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/134410/606727

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/134410/607076

Hi!

GASMETERGUY

Click on those links, start with the first one.

That is one of the better samples of what can be done with filtering for the pick 3 game.

That was done with filtering and only filtering.

------------

I don't know what you mean by:

Filtering and stringing the filters together.

-----------

You said:

If you are into patterns/filters/character... [ More ]

Reply #11

GASMETERGUY — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 02:13:03 GMT

Now I concentrate on the P5 game and I know ya'll are talking about P3 games. However, the discussion carries over.

Filtering and only filtering will not, IMHO, accomplish what you are trying to find. Filtering and stringing the filters together might do a little better. I don't know at this point

We try to have as many characteristics as possible. If we can think of a filter as a pattern then, yes, you will need as many characteristics as possible. The more the better. But know this, the... [ More ]

Reply #10

LANTERN — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 03:51:44 GMT

Look, things are simple:

There is no such thing as prediction, unless one is such as Nostradamus or The Oracle At Delphi

For the rest of us, there is: Chances are that chances are .

That is Probabilities

What is easier (More accurate of a prediction), to predict 1 out of 10, or to filter out 1 out of 10?

To predict 1 out of 10 = 1/10 chance of being right.

To filter out 1 out of 10 = 9/10 chance of being right.

I don't know Math so maybe that is not right.

Anyhow, I nev... [ More ]

Reply #9

LANTERN — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 03:33:06 GMT

Mike wrote:

Many models used in order to forecast first number of next Pick3 combo and/or first number direction (higher or lower than last number).

--------------------------

First Digit = 1/10

Chances might also be 1/10

That is why I never predicted, instead I filtered out.

--------

Characteristics are needed

1 Digit out of 10 that is 1 characteristic

Higher or Lower than last, that is another

2 Charcteristics are not enough.

We try to have as many characterist... [ More ]

Reply #8

mikemerkury — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 03:00:00 GMT

Support vector machines are a valuable tool for

making classi?cations, but their black-box nature means that

they lack the natural explanatory value that many other

classi?ers possess.

No hard rules applied. Support vector machines are tool for making classi?cations, but their black-box nature means that they lack the natural explanatory value that many other classi?ers (i.e. Bayes probabilistic model) possess. What i did was to feed historical lottery numbers (and associated data, e... [ More ]

Reply #7

SerenityViolet — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 01:25:55 GMT

Thanks MikeMerkury, it's good to know that such options are available. Unfortunately, I don't have much more than some fairly broad ideas at present.

Trying to think about what to pursue. I'm fascinated to hear that you have investigated this angle. Interesting to hear about the types of rules you have applied. Sounds like you are also looking at Matrix math

Reply #6

SerenityViolet — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 01:07:03 GMT

Thanks for your post Lantern. I think that you touch on a crucial point.

The idea of the network is to create a way of extrapolating outcomes from incomplete information. It can be used to model strategies for example. The problem with lotteries is that I am not sure we know what the rules should be. If the rules are simply filtering strategies then is anything additional achieved by using a network? For example we may know that 80% of all potential lines in a pick 6 game contain 2, 3 or 4 o... [ More ]

Reply #5

mikemerkury — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 01:03:35 GMT

system shop with its skilled programmers to develop his ideas into a working program : i have access to analyst, programmer, modeler, etc. Do not hesitate to privately contact me and we can workout something if you have a new/great model that can be validated on historical drawing data. Signed confidentiality agreement, shared percentage profit, fixed cost, and many options available.

Reply #4

mikemerkury — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 00:52:30 GMT

Did many lottery number experiment with Bayesian Networks (Neural and Support Vector Machine) in the past few months . No great success so far. Many models used in order to forecast first number of next Pick3 combo and/or first number direction (higher or lower than last number). Experimented using rules extraction exploration of last 200 winning numbers, ephemeris data with various planetary longitude-lattitude (mercury, venus, mars, etc.) at date/location of drawing, earth geomagnetics data at... [ More ]

Reply #3

SerenityViolet — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 00:45:23 GMT

I think you are probably right. I've seen several posts where people think they are onto something but don't have the programming skills to implement it. While I did programming I don't use it regularly so my skills are pretty rusty - and I don't have the time, which means that I'm pretty much in the same boat. The good commercial products on the market do seem to pick up ideas as they become mainstream. The problem with single ideas is that you end up with a one-trick pony. I guess that's OK if... [ More ]

Reply #2

RJOh — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 17:46:51 GMT

Sounds like what is needed here is a lottery strategy and system shop, a shop that does for lottery players what a machine shop does for inventors. If an inventor gets an idea he makes a few drawings and hires a machine shop which has a group of skilled machinists to make a working model of his idea. Like wise a lottery player who has an idea for winning lotteries could write down his ideas and hire a lottery strategy and system shop with its skilled programmers to develop his ideas into a worki... [ More ]

Reply #1

LANTERN — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 17:04:37 GMT

Prediction rules?

I kind of made filtering rules, not exactly strict and I didn't write them down.

That was more or less how I used to predict.

The information used were of course the patterns made by past draws.

So you are on the right track.

But people and also those who make programs don't seem to be interested on it.

Ideas for Bayesian Networks & prediction

SerenityViolet — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 01:14:13 GMT

Has anyone looked at Bayesian Networks for tackling the prediction problem? As I understand it Bayesian Networks can offer predication based on incomplete information. The key is the rules that are put in place. For example in weather prediction certain conditions indicate rain, cloudiness, cloud type, humidity, temperature etc. When certain conditions are present rain can reasonably be predicted, even though the full information set isn't known.

I guess the problem with applying this to lot... [ More ]