Grading a Lotto System

Reply #4

RJOh — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:56:01 GMT

Those overall odds sound similar to those of a 5/39 game that pays for a match 2.

combination size 5

basic pool size 39

(B) bonus numbers none

smallest match 2

tickets or chances per draw 100

possible combos of 5/39 numbers = 575757

MATCHES ODDS WINNING COMBOS EXPECTED WINNERS

5/5 1 : 575757 1 0.00

4/5 1 : 3387 170 0.03

3/5 1 : 103 5610 0.97

2/5 1 : 10 59840 10.39

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overall odds are 1... [ More ]

Reply #3

Todd — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:20:49 GMT

Reply #2

Stack47 — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 15:37:54 GMT

Most lotteries give ticket odds so 1 in 8.1 means one ticket should win something for every 8.1 tickets sold. If you buy 100 tickets, you should expect to get 12 or 13 winners (100/8.1) and if the something you won on each ticket was free ticket, you'll lose $87 or $88. A profitable system for that game would be a way to win more than a $100 for each $100 bet.

how much over odds would you have to be - before anyone would care?

Just to win even money , you'll need a return of 200%.... [ More ]

Reply #1

jimmy4164 — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 06:16:30 GMT

jason-eagle,

What you would get back is called the Expected Value of the wager.

Expected Value is the Probability of Winning multiplied by the Payoff IF you Win.

We need more information to answer your question in this case. Specifically, what the publisher means by 1:8.1. In most Pick-3 games, for example, the published odds are 1:1000 for a straight bet, and most states pay $500 for a winning $1 straight ticket. So, in these games, the Expected Value (EV) of a $1 straight ticket purch... [ More ]

Grading a Lotto System

jason-eagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:21:12 GMT

For example - if you buy/develop a system for a particular game with published overall odds of: 1:8.1

And you bet say - $100 on the system.

How much would you expect to get back,

and how much over odds would you have to be - before anyone would care?

Thanx, Jason

(P.S. would have jumped on this back in college -but stats class was a long time ago..