If you had 10 bucks to bet...

Reply #132

JADELottery — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 11:51:07 GMT

We've posted in our blog, What's the difference between Science and Pseudoscience?

The answer:

In Science you Test the Hypothesis.

In Pseudoscience you Prove the Conclusion.

What we have seen so far are many anecdotal analogies at best that attempt to prove a conclusion.

They are mostly in the realm of Pseudoscience; the objective in that is to Prove a Conclusion rather than Test the Hypothesis.

We read a lot of very interesting stories of a variation of the o... [ More ]

Reply #131

jimmy4164 — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 03:07:32 GMT

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

When you wrote, To make this test unbiased you would need 11 identical RNG's running in sync where all 11 numbers were drawn at the exact same time but even this would have an effect that was based on seed value used which could also be construed as time or any nonconstant measure.

...in response to JADELottery, it appeared to me that the code I linked you to was exactly what you were suggesting was needed.

http://www.cs.wm.edu/~va/software/park/

And given JADELotter... [ More ]

Reply #130

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:08:49 GMT

Jimbo

Why take someone elses work when I can do it on my own? What you don't understand is that it makes

no difference if it's done with one machine or a thousand, you cannot produce a random number without

some element of space, time, distance, movement, ect.... Without this you would have nothing but a counter,

In a RNG P-5 lottery, each number can only be drawn once so some bias must be included and even and in a ball

tumbler each ball that drops out has a effect on the rest. N... [ More ]

Reply #129

ameriken — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 16:28:37 GMT

I guess I'm jumping into this thread way late, and only read the first page or so, but based on my own unscientific and unprovable observation, I would prefer 10 lines in one game over 1 line per game 10 times.

Good day and good luck.

Ken

Reply #128

jimmy4164 — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 16:24:23 GMT

RL,

How did this work out for you? Were you able to translate them from C into Basic without too much trouble?

--Jimmy4164

Reply #127

dr65 — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 23:12:11 GMT

Anything that takes the time you've invested in this experiment has to be meaningful in some way. There

is usually a side the poser of the question takes...sometimes it's not immediately stated and they

would just like opinions from others before stating their own and then presenting their facts or test results.

Since you have facts..ie test runs and results...the information is no longer opinion..you have something

solid to compare. I believe, while I was popping in and out for a qu... [ More ]

Reply #126

jimmy4164 — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 22:47:05 GMT

I don't think it's necessary, but here is the source code for a random number generator that provides up to 256 random parallel streams, which seems to be what you're asking for.

http://www.cs.wm.edu/~va/software/park/

--Jimmy4164

Reply #125

JADELottery — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 14:40:31 GMT

No, we agree with what you've written.

You've come up with a test.

Now, we're waiting for your results.

Reply #124

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 14:22:13 GMT

Jade

OK

This is all I get, I was hoping to get beat up a little or maybe as jimmy says enlightened. Maybe the point was

just to get us to think a bit which is always good. I would also like to say that I thought your circles/arrows graphic

was a very good example of the lottery process. I ran another test using a simple RNG and in 30 million random

sets I did get 3 sets that matched in series but they were do to incremental advances in the systems ticks.

RL

Reply #123

JADELottery — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 01:49:59 GMT

Hmm, interesting observation.

Reply #122

JADELottery — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 01:48:50 GMT

Ok.

Reply #121

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 00:26:35 GMT

jade

I have been watching this post with interest but have yet to get the meat of it. The calculated probability

would show a very small advantage playing 10 plays 1 day. This however would not be a winning strategy

by any interpretation. I ran many test using a RNG which was set up to count every time the rng generated

two exact sets in series. I don't remember that it ever happened in millions and millions of attempts. However

within the list seperated by time there were many ma... [ More ]

Reply #120

JADELottery — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 19:57:00 GMT

We will be making some changes to our site.

So, if you want to run the test, do it soon.

The test will become unavailable after we make the changes.

Reply #119

jimmy4164 — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 03:19:13 GMT

How many more chances do you think you will have to win?

BTW, the answer is displayed for you in the results of 150,000,000 draws above.

Reply #118

Hermanus104 — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 02:38:48 GMT

I voted, 1 play / 10 draws because, even though you will not win as large a prize, you have more chances to win.

Reply #117

JADELottery — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 15:02:09 GMT

Here is one our test run for Pick 3.

Reply #116

JADELottery — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 14:55:56 GMT

Here is the Source Code for the recent update.

______________________________________

Public Class Pick3Pick4Tests

Public Class StatusUpdate

Public ProgressPercentage As Integer

Public ProgressIndex As Integer

Public ProgressInformation As String

End Class

'Holding structure for both Straight and reduced Box Selections

Private Structure ComboList

Dim Straight As String

Dim Box As String

End Structure

Public R, X As Integer 'R - 3 for Pick 3 an... [ More ]

Reply #115

JADELottery — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 14:46:55 GMT

Ok, we've finished the Pick 3 and Pick 4 tests.

Link - http://www.jadexcode.com/SpecialTest.aspx

You might have to clear your browser cache to get the test to refresh properly.

We've seen this problem on Firefox, but not Internet Explorer.

Reply #114

jimmy4164 — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 02:34:32 GMT

JADELottery is saying it's a toss up, but that does not mean the simulation will result in identical winnings after 150,000,000 draws.

What criteria will you use to decide whether you are right or wrong

Reply #113

ressuccess — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 16:36:47 GMT

My vote is one play for 10 draws.

Reply #112

JADELottery — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 16:03:31 GMT

We'll be making some changes to the test program later today, so the program may be unavailable while we crash test the code.

We're getting the Pick 3 and Pick 4 tests ready.

The programming is a little different than the usual combinatoric stuff.

Permutations add a little shuffle to the mix.

Reply #111

JADELottery — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 22:22:07 GMT

Ok, here's one of our tests we let run while we were at work.

Reply #110

jimmy4164 — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 21:32:27 GMT

I agree with CARBOB, Nice work!

I will be attentively watching how you deal with challengers since I'm working on a program to illustrate another aspect of this myself in another thread. I hope my praise for your work is not a kiss of death

Reply #109

CARBOB — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 20:04:09 GMT

Thanks Doug, very nice work.

Reply #108

JADELottery — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 19:43:04 GMT

Looks like you ran a 5 of 36 with a minimum 2 numbers or better matching between a play and a draw to win.

Each test, 0 to 9, runs 15,000,000 draws while counting the wins for each strategy of 1 Play / 10 Draws and 10 Plays / 1 Draw.

From your example, Test 0 shows: 1 Play / 10 Draws win counts | 10 Plays / 1 Draw win counts | which strategy had the advantage at the end of the test | how much of absolute difference there is between the two strategies.

In your Test 0: 1 Play / 1... [ More ]

Reply #107

CARBOB — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 17:04:34 GMT

Explain the results from a 5/36 game.

Reply #106

JADELottery — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 10:54:36 GMT

we're running it right now.

we'll post this test run later today.

Actually, here's where we are right now in the tests.

Reply #105

truecritic — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:04:12 GMT

I am going to fully accept your word. I refuse to install Silverlight.

Reply #104

tiggs95 — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 04:41:25 GMT

Wow this is great..Just what tiggs has been looking for..Now on to bed and will study this in the AM..if tiggs wakes up...and if tiggs isen't lucky to wake up so be it..no more lotto tickets to worry about..to the end of the line tiggs....

Reply #103

rdgrnr — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 03:33:33 GMT

Holy Moly.

I'm gonna be hittin the sauce tonight.

Reply #102

markp1950 — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 03:14:20 GMT

He said it right.....

IF I has 10 dollars

Reply #101

JADELottery — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 02:34:27 GMT

Below is the code for the Pick 5 and Pick 6 part.

_______________________________________

Public Class Pick5Pick6Tests

Public Class StatusUpdate

Public ProgressPercentage As Integer

Public ProgressIndex As Integer

Public ProgressInformation As String

End Class

Public N, R, W As Integer

Const IndexMax As Integer = 12

Private Numbers(IndexMax, 12) As Byte 'Draw - Numbers(0, x) , 1 Play - Numbers(1, x) , 10 Plays - Numbers(2 to 11, x)

Public Sub RunThePick5Pic... [ More ]

Reply #100

JADELottery — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 02:30:57 GMT

Ok, the Pick 5 and Pick 6 tests are coded.

You can try the test yourself and yes, we made it so it's visible to all.

Link - http://www.jadexcode.com/SpecialTest.aspx

We will be working on the Pick 3 and Pick 4 part.

Reply #99

JADELottery — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 02:10:28 GMT

We've got the Pick 5 Pick 6 part running now.

We are testing it and will post when we are done with that part so everyone can try.

Early test show though, this program runs pretty slow because of the large number of combinations.

We'll get back to you when we are done testing the program for any bugs.

Also, some of the data layout may be a little different, but the overall layout is the same.

Reply #98

truecritic — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 01:02:10 GMT

Looks great!

Just so you know: It is visible to me and I am not an Administrator

Reply #97

JADELottery — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 11:22:08 GMT

We have the basic layout to display the results.

Now we have to setup the code for both different tests.

Below is a screen shot of what it will look like.

Each test will run 15,000,000 draws.

Reply #96

jimmy4164 — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 04:48:40 GMT

Unless you've won a jackpot prize using either of these methods..you will never know which one was the better play 1/10 or 10/1...even if you won, you would only be able to say playing 1 set for 10 days or 10 sets for one day was good only for the day you won. Do it again and I might be impressed, do it yearly and hey you might have a believer.

In that case, when he shows you the results of doing it (playing it, not winning it) 15,000,000 times, you should surely have what you need to make a... [ More ]

Reply #95

joker17 — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 23:59:37 GMT

Like I said before, i believe 10 people saying WE at once is better....

I think he has a mouse in his pocket...lol

Reply #94

tiggs95 — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 22:06:31 GMT

tiggs has always wondered why people talk like that..We this we that..tiggs will never understand that..ridge please explain it to tiggs will yah..tiggs will be back tiggs is out and tiggs thank's you..from tiggs...

Reply #93

rdgrnr — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 21:36:29 GMT

Ten French wimmins saying oui oui at the same time.

Reply #92

truecritic — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 21:30:10 GMT

All famous celebrities do that!

The question: is it better to have 10 people saying we or one person saying we, 10 times

Reply #91

JADELottery — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 20:59:59 GMT

We cannot answer that question at this point in time.

Someone else here might know part of the answer, but it's not quite what you might think it is... close but a variant.

Do some research on it and you might find a very eye opening answer to it.

Reply #90

joker17 — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 19:55:24 GMT

Why do you always refer to We ? Not trying to be a smartass, but I've been wanting to ask that question for a while now....lol

Reply #89

JADELottery — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 19:52:00 GMT

We will do the program first and come back to your reply later.

It's an easier test and less costly.

Keep talking amongst yourselves... we'll be back in a bit.

Reply #88

dr65 — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 18:32:28 GMT

Unless you've won a jackpot prize using either of these methods..you will never know which one was the

better play 1/10 or 10/1...even if you won, you would only be able to say playing 1 set for 10 days or 10

sets for one day was good only for the day you won. Do it again and I might be impressed, do it yearly

and hey you might have a believer.

But just toss it around without being able to get to the point and I wonder what you are after.

JADELottery are you reeling people into so... [ More ]

Reply #87

JADELottery — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 16:34:52 GMT

Great question, start a Poll topic and ask everyone.

Sorry, our topic does not deal with that since we are just working with the probability of winning, not how much you've won.

Good question though, good...

Reply #86

Stack47 — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 15:56:40 GMT

Sounds like the Bluejay Challenge where you must make $1 million worth of bets on a $5000 bank roll to prove a the system shows a profit.

But back to the original questions; is it better to have 10 chances to win one jackpot or 1 chance to win 10 jackpots

Reply #85

JADELottery — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 22:22:12 GMT

Well, looks like we're going to have to make a program that tests these 2 different Strategies.

We will use RJOh's 5/39 Lottery example to start and work in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 as an example, too.

The goal is to show the difference (if any) there is between the 1 Play / 10 Draws Strategy and the 10 Plays / 1 Draw Strategy.

To make it a Statisically sound test, we'll run 15,000,000 trials of each Strategy and do it multiple times; maybe 10 or so.

We may even post a link so you can run... [ More ]

Reply #84

JADELottery — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 18:25:30 GMT

We'd like to clarify a few things about the plays.

This about the typical average Joe or Jane lottery picks.

Something you'd find if you went in to a store and asked a clerk for 10 buck quick pick on single ticket.

It would be very improbable to see every play the same combination ten times over and if you did, that would really raise some alarms about the machine's picking algorithm.

Improbable meaning it does not happen to everyone, all the time; common experience shows... [ More ]

Reply #83

joker17 — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 17:37:09 GMT

I understand your point, but I was thinking from the beginning of this thread that even in the p-3 I would be playing 10 different combos all at once, not the same combo 10 times at once.

Reply #82

truecritic — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 17:15:18 GMT

It would depend on your definition of better bet in the original question. If a better bet is the same as more likely to win then I think KYFloyd is correct in his original post. If a better bet is the same as most possible money to be won then 1 ticket for 10 separate games is correct.

I think those statements can apply to either Pick3 or jackpots.

Reply #81

Stack47 — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 15:23:29 GMT

If you're playing pick-3 and bet one number 10 times straight, you can win $5000 but the most you can win betting $1 a game is $500. If the object is to win $5000, betting the same number 10 times is the better bet.

I believe the question is for average play on a lotto, MM, or PB game and the only difference I see is what Floyd pointed out, you only can win one jackpot playing the $10 one time.

Don't the playing objectives dictate which is the better bet

Reply #80

joker17 — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:56:23 GMT

I don't believe that was clarified, but my supposition was that each of the 10 separate draws scenario, should contain different combos, since the 10 combos for one draw had to have 10 different combos also. So why would they differ in characteristics?

Altering what the single combo bets contain....(10 separate times), compared to having a lump sum of the same combos in one draw bet scenario, could possibly contaminate and/or change the dynamic thus causing erroneous readings to possibly occ... [ More ]

Reply #79

KY Floyd — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:44:12 GMT

What's the maximum number of times you can win the jackpot with the first method? What's the maximum number of times you can win the jackpot with the second method

Reply #78

JADELottery — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 00:32:57 GMT

Don't know if this is available in your state, but we can select to play more than one draw using the same ticket, see below.

Reply #77

JADELottery — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 00:12:26 GMT

That would be an interpretation of it, but in general it's just 1 Play / 10 Draws and 10 Plays / 1 Draw; where Play(s) are something the Lottery Customer would choose and Draw(s) are something the State Lottery would choose.

Reply #76

gsc5 — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 00:01:35 GMT

I guess there's something I am not understanding about this question. One play 10 draws imply using the same number. Ten plays one draw imply using different

numbers. Am I correct

Reply #75

Coin Toss — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 22:34:01 GMT

joker,

You have to consider the depth of ones' pockets or beyond that how much they're willing to throw at something that most likley loses.

JADELottery

Fish might not be a good choice.

Indeed. Especially when the lottery may be looking at the players as the fish

Reply #74

rdgrnr — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 20:27:35 GMT

I know Gill.

He's working at the marina fixing outboard motors now.

I took mine in to have him work on it.

He said it looked like I'd blown a seal.

I told him to fix the dam motor and leave my personal life out of it.

Reply #73

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 19:55:00 GMT

Reply #72

joker17 — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 19:46:07 GMT

Let's say there are 53 fish mongers in town, and only one of six of them have tartar sauce. Would you rather have 10 scouts checking out which of the mongers have it, or send one scout out at a time to find the six who have the tartar sauce?

I'm gonna ask my friend Gill this question and see what he says. Unfortunately, he flip flops on his answers most of the time.

Reply #71

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 19:22:03 GMT

To really twist your noodle, Which contestant has the Advantage, 1 or 2

Reply #70

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 19:11:53 GMT

Let s assign some names.

Contestant #

Fisher Folk Name

Tournament 1

Tournament 2

1

Lottery

Catch 10

Catch 1

2

Player

Catch 1

Catch 10

Can you still say which has the advantage?

How about now?

Contestant #

Fisher Folk Name

Tournament 1

Tournament 2

1

Player

Catch 10

Catch 1

2

Lottery

Catch 1

Catch 10

Reply #69

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 18:51:27 GMT

Aright, back from the break.

Now that we ve had some time to think about who s doin the catchin , we can look at this a little more closely. The Tournaments need some rules that must be followed; if not, then it s a free for all and the Tournaments are hereby nullified and canceled. Also, these are really-really hungry fish; you catch em within the first minute.

Tournament Rules

1 The Lottery and the Player must choose sides, either Catch 10 or Catch 1, not both.

2 The... [ More ]

Reply #68

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 16:16:58 GMT

Ok, here's our Fish Story.

Going back and looking at what you said, we need to relate the net and the fish to the posting we made. First, what is a fish? Does it represent combinations or just numbers? Second, how does your net work and does it have limitations or attributes other than just size? Can a rod and reel work better in place of a net? How does the lottery relate to this whole Fish Story and what are their choices? These are some things that have us wondering about how to best ex... [ More ]

Reply #67

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 14:40:32 GMT

Actually, a net is not a good choice either as it relates to our posts.

We've had a enough time to think this one out and have come up with a better Fish Story that best explains what we posted.

We'll post it a little later.

Reply #66

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 14:32:40 GMT

Just one more thing to consider.

Keep in mind that this is catch and release.

Also, the lottery is casting a net just like you are.

Reply #65

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 14:21:31 GMT

One more note.

Fish might not be a good choice.

They have a mind of there own and are likely to evade capture.

That gives rise to some kind of sentient thinking, which could be an indication of a rigged lottery.

Reply #64

JADELottery — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 13:53:33 GMT

Once again, good anecdotal summary, but you have not established a relative frame of reference to what we demonstrated.

How does your Net relate to anything we posted?

How do the Fish relate?

And more importantly, where and how big is the Tank your holding these fish in?

The lottery by definition is a finite set of choices: known, bounded, calculated, and generated; finite like a Tank.

Open water fishing introduces additional unknown quantities and probabilities that are not part

Reply #63

joker17 — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 06:08:21 GMT

Bottom line...

Would you rather throw a 100 foot diameter net into a pool with 50 fish once, or would you rather throw a net with a diameter of 10 feet into the same pool ten separate times?

I think I would rather throw the 100 foot diameter net into the water once.

If you've ever seen shows on the Discovery channel that show enviornmentalist type folks explode nets over an area on the beach where certain birds feed and are caught for research, they use large nets, not small ones.

Reply #62

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 21:36:13 GMT

That's it.

Well put.

Reply #61

rdgrnr — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 21:12:04 GMT

After my Great Great Papaw, Pumpi Schleppensteinbergenfelcherhausenliebengleeber

Reply #60

jimmy4164 — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 19:05:41 GMT

This could cause me to rethink my logic of not playing a set of numbers more than once.

You're getting closer to Enlightenment.

When you realize that my 2 scenarios are analogous to Doug's,

you will be even closer

Reply #59

rdgrnr — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 18:16:10 GMT

LOL, I was drinking heavily reading it.

Reply #58

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 18:14:05 GMT

I was drinking when I posted the Arrows example.

Vodka and Cranberry Juice.

Pretty buzzed, too.

Reply #57

rdgrnr — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 18:11:36 GMT

This could cause me to rethink my logic of not playing a set of numbers more than once.

It could cause me to drink.

And for that I'm thankful.

Reply #56

RJOh — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 15:50:40 GMT

For the 10 Draws/1 Ticket each scenario, just assume you purchase all $1 Tickets in 10 different (5,39) games in 10 different states ON THE SAME DAY! What are the odds for these 10 Tickets? The same as the other 10!

Thanks for your efforts to help me understand Doug's logic but the above scenario wasn't in the question. it was a 10/1 or 1/10 in the same game. I think I understand his logic now.

It turns out both scenarios are 10 trys to match a combination but from opposite directions. In... [ More ]

Reply #55

RJOh — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 15:26:58 GMT

I think I get it now.

Buy one ticket with 10 combinations for 1 draw, you get 10 trys ( ) to match 1 winner ( )

Buy one 1 combinations for 10 draws, 10 winners ( ) try to match your 1 combination ( ).

Both strategies are the same but from opposite directions

Reply #54

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 13:16:09 GMT

Or this?

01 13 16 29 31

06 13 18 33 36

03 06 15 23 26

07 10 16 24 31

01 14 18 29 35

03 06 20 25 31

08 18 20 33 38

12 17 23 24 25

01 07 09 11 19

01 17 23 25 29 02 04 08 15 20 - Which is What Strategy? - 01 13 16 29 31 02 04 08 15 20

02 09 22 23 27

03 12 16 25 30

01 05 19 23 39

02 16 22 24 33

01 03 07 16 32

08 29 20 35 39

11 21 26 35 37

11 12 17 20 23

04 09 25 28 36

Reply #53

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 13:13:18 GMT

How about this?

01 13 16 29 31 02 04 08 15 20

02 09 22 23 27

03 12 16 25 30

01 05 19 23 39

02 16 22 24 33

01 03 07 16 32

08 29 20 35 39

11 21 26 35 37

11 12 17 20 23

04 09 25 28 36 - Which is What Strategy? - 01 13 16 29 31

06 13 18 33 36

03 06 15 23 26

07 10 16 24 31

01 14 18 29 35

03 06 20 25 31

08 18 20 33 38

12 17 23 24 25

01 07 09 11 19

01 17 23 25 29 02 04 08 15 20

Reply #52

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 13:03:20 GMT

Ok, let's put it this way.

Below is an example of the two different playing strategies.

Can you tell me what example belongs to which strategy?

02 04 08 15 20

02 09 22 23 27

03 12 16 25 30

01 05 19 23 39

02 16 22 24 33

01 03 07 16 32

08 29 20 35 39

11 21 26 35 37

11 12 17 20 23

04 09 25 28 36 01 13 16 29 31 - Which is What Strategy? - 02 04 08 15 20 01 13 16 29 31

06 13 18 33 36

03 06 15 23 26

07 10 16 24 31

01 14 18 29 35

03 06 20 25 31... [ More ]

Reply #51

ttech10 — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 07:40:50 GMT

Having not won with ten lines in a draw and not having won with one line in ten draws, I think I would go with ten draws with one draw each. At least that way I still have something to look forward to, rather than having played my ten lines on one draw without winning and continuing with the next nine drawings thinking what if .

Reply #50

joker17 — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 05:27:08 GMT

Ran out of time to edit, but I wanted to say that's it not exactly 100% proportional, but close enough. Pretty much a 10 to one ratio compared to a 9 to 1....Just wanted to clear that up....lol

Reply #49

joker17 — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 05:04:29 GMT

After much thought I came to the following conclusion, and i'm sticking with it. Unless someone can convince me otherwise, this makes much sense.

The scenario shows one side having 10 bets in one draw, compared to one bet a draw for 10 consecutive draws. Here's my solution to this. I think the best way is to use simpler games like the P-3 with a 1000 to 1 odds for a straight bet to better illustrate this.

I believe that the scenario that involves 10 bets for one draw seems to be the best... [ More ]

Reply #48

jimmy4164 — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 04:28:51 GMT

RJOh,

I think I know what might be keeping you from following Doug's logic. When you think of betting on 10 Draws, 1 Ticket each, you probably subconciously think of time, that the scenario will take 10 days to complete. On the other hand, when you think of purchasing 10 Tickets for 1 Draw, your mind sees it happening in 1 day. This can be confusing when trying to equate the two scenarios.

To make things simpler, because of parimutel complications, let's assume you buy ten unique Tickets f... [ More ]

Reply #47

RJOh — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 01:17:44 GMT

I'll have to start over and read this thread again and then maybe I'll have a clearer understanding of your graphs.

RJOh

Reply #46

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 01:06:12 GMT

Your statements have many flaws.

They both look the same because there is one target and 10 arrows in each circle (10 plays per one draw).

Incorrect because the large circle is not a draw, it is the total possible outcomes and each arrow is a selection or sample from those outcomes. The draw is an arrow just like your play is an arrow.

If you are representing 10 arrows shot at 10 different targets (one play per draw for 10 draws) then you should have 10 large circles with one

Reply #45

RJOh — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 00:29:33 GMT

They both look the same because there is one target and 10 arrows in each circle (10 plays per one draw). If you are representing 10 arrows shot at 10 different targets (one play per draw for 10 draws) then you should have 10 large circles with one target and one arrow in each. That might be interpreted as hitting the target is more likely if all ten arrows were shot at the same target since it allows more misses of the same target.

Reply #44

JADELottery — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 00:00:48 GMT

Alright, using your example of hitting a target we ll setup a simple expression of what we are proving by generalizing a similarity.

First, we have the target shown below. The target is the total possible outcomes for a lottery of N numbers taken R at a time.

Next we have an arrow that represents a selection that is to be made from that total possible set of outcomes. The selection could be a Play or it could be a Draw; either way, they are the same R selections from N numbers.... [ More ]

Reply #43

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 21:25:25 GMT

Well, we are almost there.

We have something to go on.

We're getting something ready, so it may be a bit.

Hopefully, we can make a better understand of what we've shown as proof.

Reply #42

RJOh — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:35:13 GMT

shots = picking lottery combinations to play

invisible = combination will be from any of 575,757 possible combinations but unknown at the time

position = combination different each drawing thus it's new/has positional change each time

Playing lottery is similar to trying to shoot a moving target in the dark. Using a gun that can cover the whole area with a burst of unlimited fire power will hit the target for sure but if you only get ten shots, is it a better strategy to have a burst o... [ More ]

Reply #41

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:20:10 GMT

That's an intersting anecdotal summary of confusion.

In order to clear up the confusion, we need a common frame of reference.

So, please relate the following key words to the posts we made: shots, invisible, position.

How do you quantify or equate those to our post?

shots = ?, invisible = ?, position

Reply #40

RJOh — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:49:19 GMT

Now I'm more confused. How would you use that formula to evaluate taking 10 random shots at an invisible target all at once verses taking 10 random shots one at a time at an invisible target that changes position after each shot

Reply #39

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 05:03:31 GMT

Thanks.

It's been a long night.

While I was doing this, I was also doing my laundry.

I have to check the final load now.

Reply #38

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 04:58:12 GMT

Don't you want to expand on that by detailing all the 2nd tier prize probabilities in a lotto game?

Just kidding!

Nice work Doug

Reply #37

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 03:53:24 GMT

Ok, now this gets a bit more abstract.

When we posted the poll, we could have said, What s the better bet? 1 Wingdebing / 10 Zibdo or 10 Wingdebing / 1 Zibdo

In that, could you say for absolute certainty that a Wingdebing is or really determine what a Zibdo is?

I could have reversed the order from what you may think it is.

Ultimately, you can t say what they mean, and I won t say either because I don t speak Jibber-Jab.

To that end, when we look at the probability,

Reply #36

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 03:03:36 GMT

Let's apply the (C(P, M) * C(N P, D M)) / C(N, D) probability to the 5 / 39 lottery pointed out by RJOh.

We won't reduce the fraction to a decimal value, we'll just leave it as an integer fraction.

Running through the number by substitution, we can assign some of the variables: P = 5, N = 39, D = 5.

Next we can work the M variable for {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, then see if the sum of the fractions (probabilities) equals 1.

M (C(P, M) * C(N P, D M)) / C(N, D)

0 278256 / 575757... [ More ]

Reply #35

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 02:26:36 GMT

First, we have to calculate the Probability of M - matching numbers from P - played quantity in D drawn quantity within an N - Numbers pool. Below is a diagram of how this looks graphically. M is how many individual combination numbers played match the drawn numbers. P is how many numbers you are playing per combination. D is the quantity of numbers being selected for a draw. N is the quantity of numbered balls in the bin for the drawing.

The probability of matching is, where C(?,

Reply #34

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 02:03:59 GMT

Correction: Just a typo, Pick should really be Play.

We're getting things ready.

Just have to get our Duckies in a row.

We'll post this in a few parts.

1 - The Calculation of Probabilities for matching a Play to a Draw with Picking a Quantity of Plays.

2 - The Play-Draw Symmetry.

3 - The Indeterminate Association Soloution.

Also, we'll relate this to RJOh's example.

Reply #33

JADELottery — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:41:58 GMT

We're getting things ready.

Just have to get our Duckies in a row.

We'll post this in a few parts.

1 - The Calculation of Probabilities for matching a Pick to a Draw with Picking a Quantity of Plays.

2 - The Pick-Draw Symmetry.

3 - The Indeterminate Association Soloution.

Also, we'll relate this to RJOh's example.