Florida Lotto Probability

Reply #8

RJOh — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 22:06:46 GMT

That's pretty close. These are some full printouts of the program I wrote some years ago using GWBasic. I can use different variables to fit the game that I'm playing or the answers that I want.

combination size 6

basic pool size 53

(B) bonus numbers none

smallest match 0

tickets or chances per draw 1

possible combos of 6/53 numbers = 22957480

MATCHES ODDS WINNING COMBOS EXPECTED WINNERS

6/6 1 : 22957480 1 0.00

5/6 1 : 81410 282 0.00

4/6 1 : 1416 16215 0.00

3/6... [ More ]

Reply #7

FlLotto — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:03:45 GMT

Thanks RJOh!

My error is that I thought the probability formula is WaysToWin/TotalCombinations. The correct formula is (WaysToWin*WaysToLose)/TotalCombinations. The Permutations and Combinations code I put up are correct and this is the corrected table, now just like RJOh:

Odds

Hits Picks to Hit Ways to Win Ways to Lose Total Combinations

0 2.1 1 10737573 22957480

1 2.5 6 1533939 22957480

2 8.6 15 178365 22957480

3 70.8 20 16215 22957480

4 1415.8 15 1081 229574... [ More ]

Reply #6

FlLotto — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 01:15:35 GMT

Ok. I've put up my thinking; but I also ran a test. I took the first 100 Lotteries in the Florida Lotto history list and ran them against each other so that each Lottery took the other 99 as Quick Picks. The results confirm your calculations. Where did I go wrong?

Quick Pick Results Hits Count Percent Probability

1 4044 40.85 1 in 2.4

2 1170 11.82 1 in 8.5

3 118 1.19 1 in 83.9

4 10 0.1 1 in 990.0

Reply #5

RJOh — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:21:43 GMT

nCr=n!/[(n-r)!*r!]

I used the above formula to get my results which are the same posted on state websites that I've visited so I assume they are correct.

*Permutations aren't the same as a combinations. Permutations include all the different possible arrangements of numbers in a combination.

Reply #4

FlLotto — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:37 GMT

I don't know if you're a coder; but these are my visual basic routines -- p is permutations, c is combinations.

' P(n,k) = n! / (n-k)!

Public Function p(ByVal n As Double, ByVal k As Double) As Double

Dim i As Integer

p = 1

For i = ((n - k) + 1) To n

p = i * p

Next

End Function

' C(n,k) = P(n,k) / k!

Public Function c(ByVal n As Double, ByVal k As Double) As Double

Dim i As Integer

c = p(n, k)

For i = 2 To k

c = c / i

Next i

End Functio... [ More ]

Reply #3

FlLotto — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 23:22:22 GMT

* THat which happens most *

* is most likely to happen again *

is unlikely in a lottery.

Reply #2

FlLotto — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 23:07:12 GMT

C(53,Hits)/C(6,Hits)

Essentially, Make 2 lists ... one with all possible combinations using 53 numbers, in the other, all possible combinations using 6 numbers. Then divide the list counts.

You get a slightly better result if you do: 1/(1/53 + 1/52 + 1/51 + 1/50 + 1/49 + 1/48) = 1 in 8.4, but I prefer the picking entries in a great big list method.

Hits Odds Combos in 53 Combos in 6

Hits = 1 1 in 8.8 53 6

Hits = 2 1 in 91.9 1378 15

Hits = 3 1 in 1171.3 23426 20

Hits... [ More ]

Reply #1

RJOh — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 04:48:54 GMT

Where did you come up with those odds calculations?

possible combos of 6/53 numbers = 22957480

MATCHES ODDS

6/6 1 : 22957480

5/6 1 : 81410

4/6 1 : 1416

3/6 1 : 71

2/6 1 : 9

1/6 1 : 2

My odds calculations show you can expect to match one on every other QP or 1:2 or get a free ticket once a month or 1:9.

Florida Lotto Probability

FlLotto — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:47:14 GMT

Florida Lotto is a 6 ball, 53 number Lottery.

It's Odds are:

Hits = 1 1 in 8.8

Hits = 2 1 in 91.9

Hits = 3 1 in 1171.3

Hits = 4 1 in 19521.7

Hits = 5 1 in 478280.8

Hits = 6 1 in 22957480

There are around 104 drawings per year; so you could expect to Hit 1 ball on your quick pick about once a month ... 2 about once a year ... 3 about once a decade ... 4 about once a generation ... 5 once in a lifetime and 6 in the midst of the next ice age.