Odds on Misinformation

Reply #60

nickbrownsfan — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 16:50:28 GMT

I don't need to do any coin flips. The facts are right there, I copied and pasted them so you could see what I was talking about, you either believe what I posted to be true or you do not.

Either way we are wasting everyone's time continuing on about this and we can agree to disagree if need be and move on to a more perductive conversation.

Reply #59

SergeM — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 16:07:56 GMT

Stop the copy-paste! Did you do the 100 coin flips

Reply #58

nickbrownsfan — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 15:40:55 GMT

The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a fair coin. With a fair coin, the outcomes in different tosses are statistically independent and the probability of getting heads on a single toss is exactly 1 2 (one in two). It follows that the probability of getting two heads in two tosses is 1 4 (one in four) and the probability of getting three heads in three tosses is 1 8 (one in eight). In general, if we let Ai be the event that tossi of a fair coin comes up hea... [ More ]

Reply #57

SergeM — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 12:15:45 GMT

You don't understand what is written on your pages.

1) I know the math behind and don't need your links.

2) I was a dealer for a year.

3) I play myself.

4) I program myself.

I say that you have got it wrong. We are talking about YOU! You are just one SAMPLE.

Take a coin, flip it on the table until you get a series of ten times face. After the tenth face continue flipping until the series breaks.

Write down every outcome and post it. Use the math of your links and show me the... [ More ]

Reply #56

nickbrownsfan — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 02:42:52 GMT

So wanted to add how was my post wrong?

I love math.. flip a coin you should have 50-50 chance right? the Farther you go out the closer you will get yet the more you will lose. This is a fact. Do the math.

So if you want to disagree with those 2 links then please do so and provide evidence to do so as well and prove that I am wrong.

Reply #55

nickbrownsfan — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 02:10:39 GMT

Perhaps I didnt explain myself to well so I will direct you here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

and also here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Large_Numbers

Reply #54

Cautious — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 21:07:54 GMT

Well said.

Reply #53

SergeM — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 19:49:00 GMT

My stemplot generated in Excel with VBA.

9988766655444333221 0 1133455689

99776533210 1 00112222344455567889

999977666543310 2 01122223344557888

999888766644432211000 3 0011122333345668888999

7776666544332221111 4 00111334467789

988876655432211100 5 011113344566667799

776555544322210 6 0011244556677778899

00 7

Takes a few seconds to make on any sheet with a few clicks. Here Keno.

Reply #52

SergeM — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 19:42:45 GMT

a) 4-6 for 10, that can be 0-10 or 3-7 or anthing.

b) You can be winning 10 times of ten times.

c) If you bet tail for 100 times, you might eventually win 55 times and lose 45 times.

d) On 10 000 times, you probably were right around 5 000 times, if you stuck to the same bet; but you can also have lost every single bet by betting on the same chance.

If 50 of 100 firemen die in the fire in some city, that doesn't mean that none dies in the fire in another city.

You have got the... [ More ]

Reply #51

butch2030 — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 19:18:17 GMT

Take a look at any of my posts in Pick 5 and/or Jackpot Games - They all begin with Combos Patterns . We all know what the odds for a given game are, but certain combinations and patterns come in more often then others. Take the Wisconsin Badger 5 game - To date there were 3,316 games played - I will give you a list of only the 5 of 5 that hit more than once. These games make up 97 of the 3,316 games to date.

2003-02-26 6 10 21 22 28

2006-10-03 6 10 21 22 28

2008-08-08 6 10 21... [ More ]

Reply #50

BlueDuck — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 12:04:57 GMT

Correction.

It is my hope that I can prove to myself, at another time, that 7s hit more times in dice for the same reason that sums combinations of 150 hit more often in a 6/49 Lottery should read:

It is my hope that I can prove to myself that sums combinations of 150 hit more often in a 6/49 Lottery Game for a different reason than why 7s hit more often in dice.

Using the dice game analogy to support the theory of Most Probable Sums doesn't work.

BlueDuck

Reply #49

BlueDuck — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 12:47:18 GMT

Cautious:

Appreciate your well thought out posts. I'm still trying to make sence of it all.

The thread listed uses stemplots made from the past 15 draws for the Badger 5/31 Lottery game. No longer works.

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/238180/2260893

BlueDuck

Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

Reply #48

BlueDuck — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 05:17:33 GMT

Cautious:

Don't want to be rude so please excuse my suspicion, but what do you plan to do with this information once revealed?

Thank you in advance,

BlueDuck

Reply #47

nickbrownsfan — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 04:34:43 GMT

Ok you have to really think about this. IF you are flipping a coin betting on a 50=50 prop then if the first 10 come out 4-6 then you are at 40% on the losing end ignore heads or tails now take the game out t0 100 the final is 42 -58 your closer having now reduced the odds to 42% thus gaining an advantage right? Wrong the other side has turned up 52-38 after the inital 10 draws. Take it out to 1000 lets say you now get 450-550 you have again increased to being within 3 more % yet you are bleedin... [ More ]

Reply #46

dr san — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 02:03:04 GMT

Hello, caution, if you get 10 draws of all lotteries in the world since pick4. pick5 pick6 etc ... view all results of the world, and divide into 4 parts, in 87% of lottery numbers will be in three sections, until the eurominhao, from today until 10 draws of all lotteries in the world, you can create up to simulate more lotteries

And make billions of pairings, 80% of the draws will be in three sectors or three groups,

Are 1,2,3,4,5,6, is dead,

Reply #45

RJOh — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 01:59:30 GMT

Absolutely not!

You assume something to be a fact that you do not know.

I think of MegaMillions as two lotteries, a 5/56 with 3,819,816 possible combination and a 1/46 with 46 possible combinations. The odds of hitting them both on one ticket are 1: 175,711,536. While the odds of any two combinations that have hit together ever hitting together again are unlikey, the odds of combinations repeating in one of the two games are very likely. The megaballs are always repeating and I suspect one... [ More ]

Reply #44

dr san — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 01:38:44 GMT

Hello, it's just a suggestion, the rl randonic, example of a lottery 49/6

Studying the digits separated from the front digits 0-4 and the final digits of 0 a9

But to hit 4 of 6 numbers drawn

We have 15 positions =

1,2,3,4 1,2,3,5 1,2,3,6 3,4,5,6 = up to 15 positions are

Leaving only two numbers to hit at each position

All conditions from 0000 to 4444, 100% of the draws of course is a part of the system

Lack endings from 0000 to 9999, but this part would be for later

Altho... [ More ]

Reply #43

SergeM — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 01:08:14 GMT

There are also odds for the order of appearance.

Reply #42

BlueDuck — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 00:25:11 GMT

Dice Game and Lottery Game Comparison

same odds 1:36

or

Why to choose or not to choose 1-2-3-. . . in Lottery

Here is a sums chart for a Dice Game using two die, one white and one red. The sums chart list all 36 combinations.

SUMS CHART for dice game

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 2-6 3-6 4-6 5-6 6-6

2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 3-5 4-5 5-5 6-5

3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 4-4 5-4 6-4

4-1 4-2 4-3 5-3 6-3

5-1 5-2 6-2

6-1

Any of the 36 combination... [ More ]

Reply #41

dr san — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 20:00:41 GMT

Hello sergem, a lottery of 49/6 have 4 groups

12,12,12,13, sergem, you can see the database of sweepstakes

Either 49/6, of the groups or have zero or a number

And one of the groups is 100% in two or more numbers. I know that a group

It has 13 numbers, but it does not matter what matters, the division by 4

Example you can see units (a number) pairs and trios, each of the four

Groups because doing statistics divided into 4 parts, the weather gets better

Forecast I say, is 80/2... [ More ]

Reply #40

SergeM — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 19:06:00 GMT

7*7 = 7 groups of 14%

1-7-49

You have to use to much math for irregular parts, that is a bad system.

Reply #39

jimmy4164 — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 18:10:41 GMT

I hope you have better luck in your endeavor than I did.

There is more going on here than innumeracy.

Reply #38

Stack47 — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 17:59:19 GMT

I think you'll find in this chain at least one posting saying that one number combo has better odds

Because we have members who also believe two or even ten chances of winning are not better than one chance, I should have said Nobody should be saying any other one combo has better odds of winning . Players exchange QPs because the numbers don't look right . Instead of saying odds, it's probably better to say more likely to be drawn because of the statistics . I only have the last 2500 Rollin... [ More ]

Reply #37

dr san — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 17:26:46 GMT

sergen= 12 12 12 13 = 3 grups 87

Reply #36

Cautious — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 16:57:49 GMT

I think everyone knows that if you start looking for numbers that have resulted in wins in the past you are on the wrong track.

Let's again use the MM as an example: Odds of winning with any numbers are 1 in 175,711,536. That means there are approximately 176 million plays you could make. If I check the winners in previous games winning numbers will be only a tiny portion of all those 176 million possibilities - because we haven't played 176 million games yet. Does this mean those previous wi... [ More ]

Reply #35

SergeM — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 14:58:36 GMT

You cannot split 49 in 4 equal parts.

Reply #34

SergeM — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 14:55:39 GMT

Coin flip: p(face) = 0.5

I love math.. flip a coin you should have 50-50 chance right? the Farther you go out the closer you will get yet the more you will lose. This is a fact. Do the math.

What do you mean? Explain yourself.

Reply #33

dr san — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 11:46:45 GMT

Hello, cautions, if you split a lotto 49/6 into 4 parts or 4 sections, or four groups, Statistics show that in 87% of all sweepstakes, you can simulate billions of sweepstakes That in 87% of the six numbers will be distributed in three sectors, one sector (groups of 12 numbers) only 13% of the sweepstakes, I prefer to play in 87% than 13%, the largest eating less, even in lower premiums need not be numbers, other symbols can take 49 The sequence is used to filter only within the matrix, and also... [ More ]

Reply #32

nickbrownsfan — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 04:46:59 GMT

I love math.. flip a coin you should have 50-50 chance right? the Farther you go out the closer you will get yet the more you will lose. This is a fact. Do the math.

Reply #31

Cautious — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 03:20:36 GMT

Thanks for your response nickbrownsfan.

1) Knowing what numbers are being played a lot is good info to have. No sense betting on numbers that will likely produce sharing of the pot. In my first post I suggested that, from what some players had told me, they don't bet on sequenced numbers because they believed the odds were worse and sequences never hit. Of course we all know the odds are the same for sequenced and unsequenced numbers. But my sample of people saying they don't play sequenced n... [ More ]

Reply #30

nickbrownsfan — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 01:27:29 GMT

I may have missed your point (although I totally understand it) and I think you understood my point perfectly. The numbers I gave you I just make up as I posted it. No reason from them nothing just put them into a group and said ok lets see who wins more. You know I will hit more times on smaller prizes unless the unthinkable happens and either of our numbers comes out and hit the big prize. Hence why I said 1 win to 1 play.

You can look at sums and think Ok I created a good sum number (not s... [ More ]

Reply #29

BlueDuck — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 21:51:45 GMT

A Very Small Lottery Game: 2/12 odds 1:66

Choose 2 different numbers from 1 through 12.

No QUICK PICK available at this time.

Choose how many draws you want. Each ticket costs nothing

No BusterBall available but always double check playslip.

To help here is a SUMS CHART starting at 3 and ending at 23 . Under each are listed all possible winning combinations.

GOOD LUCK

SUMS CHART

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 1-11 1-12 2-12

2

Reply #28

SergeM — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 20:13:21 GMT

When you can't eliminate or select your numbers, then mix them all in the blender and poor them into a form. All the winning numbers will be in that form.

Reply #27

Cautious — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 20:10:03 GMT

Stack47. Thank you. I agree with the first part of your post.

Knowing that some numbers are often played, we could avioid those numbers and have a better chance of not having to split the pot if we do win. Does anyone have a list of the most popular plays?

Re your comment that Nobody is saying any other one combo has better odds of winning . I think you'll find in this chain at least one posting saying that one number combo has better odds, for example nickbrownsfan post below. He sure sou... [ More ]

Reply #26

Stack47 — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 18:39:36 GMT

My point is that each and every play is equally a probable winner, and placing numbers into arbitrary subsets has no impact on the odds.

You're making it sound like people are just playing to beat the odds when their eye is on the prize. Gary mentioned 10,000 players picked 1-2-3-4-5+6 so it's reasonable to expect 200 tickets will have that combo in the next $200 million MM drawing. Nobody is saying any other one combo has better odds of winning, but everyone of them will get a better payoff... [ More ]

Reply #25

Cautious — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 04:01:44 GMT

nickbrownsfan,

Thanks for the offer, but you missed my point.

My point is that each and every play is equally a probable winner, and placing numbers into arbitrary subsets has no impact on the odds.

Here's an example. The numbers you would select 4-16-27-32-36 = 115. If we take all the plays that would add up to 115 we could call them a subset; an arbitrary subset that we defined, which has no impact on the odds. But we could also say you are less likely to win with this subset than wit... [ More ]

Reply #24

nickbrownsfan — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 02:30:05 GMT

using another post I in probably in 10 minutes of looking at some numbers the distribution of those numbers hit 2 of 5 in a 3/39 game on this site late last night today in a 5/39 game. The odds were the same every ticket yes as the odds of 1-2-3-4-5 being drawn the difference was I won money with the pair 3-19 the player using 1-2-3-4-5 lost.

Your assumtion is based on the fact that a player would make 1 (one) single pick per draw which isnt the normal case for most players that pick their ow... [ More ]

Reply #23

GASMETERGUY — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 02:12:07 GMT

Everyone here knows what the odds are and that odds never change. That is (or should be) a given.

What most of us do here is go beyond the odds. We go beyond the math and statistics. We go where angels fear to tread. We do into the unknown and the unprovable.

When we do, we tend to twist the meaning of words because there are no words to describe where we are or where we might be going.

So when a poster says eliminate 5 numbers and your odds will move away from zero and toward one , we

Reply #22

Coin Toss — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 01:49:14 GMT

Cautious,

Yeah, I'm very aware of what casino owners would do. (17 years in Vegas and five on river boats). If you think they're that 'sporting' consider Caribbean Stud. What are the odds of being dealt a five card royal, and what's the average progressive jackpot?

As for the sequential nnumbers, posted by garyo1954:

Camelot, the corporation who operates the UK National Lottery released the most common combinations played. No surprise. 1,2,3,4,5,6 was, quoting from an online source (whi... [ More ]

Reply #21

Cautious — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 01:48:17 GMT

garyo1954,

Maybe we actually agree. The calculated odds of winning Mega Million Lotto are posted as 1 in 175,711,536. How we define arbitrarily categorize doesn't matter. The only category that matters is the able.one with 175,711,536 possibilities. Those are the real odds when you put down your $ or $$$. There are no camels, only 175,711,536 choices - each and every one is equally a probable winner.

Reply #20

garyo1954 — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 01:38:07 GMT

RJOh,

There are several references online.

Ian Saliu wrote an in depth discussion on this combination to describe the difference between probability and degree of certainty.

Camelot, the corporation who operates the UK National Lottery released the most common combinations played. No surprise. 1,2,3,4,5,6 was, quoting from an online source (which can be found by typing 1-2-3-4-5-6 into any search engine), if I recall correctly, at some stage there were about 10,000 tickets purchased for... [ More ]

Reply #19

Cautious — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 00:54:33 GMT

garyo1954,

It's not clear to me what you are suggesting. I was saying that if you pick a large set of numbers your odds of being correct are higher than if you pick a small set of numbers. But to play all those in the large set of numbers it will cost you more $$$. Ever dollar played increases your chances of winning. What don't you agree with here?

Using the mega millions lotto as an example, the calculated odds of winning are posted as 1 in 175,711,536. Are you trying to tell us that the... [ More ]

Reply #18

RJOh — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 00:06:10 GMT

Sorry I don't remember any of those sources, just general reading about lotteries. Didn't seem worthy of knowing at the time since I never play such a combination.

I do however remember reading that 70-80% of all lottery tickets are quick picks in the Q A section on the PB website and consequently so are the winners.

Players picking their own numbers have successful strategies that some times make no sense like the two guys from W.Va who recently picked a PB combination, played it seven ti... [ More ]

Reply #17

SergeM — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 23:31:10 GMT

39-6+1=34

Reply #16

BlueDuck — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 23:27:22 GMT

Coin Toss:

Forgot a few:

1-2-3-4-5-6

2-3-4-5-6-7

3-4-5-6-7-8

4-5-6-7-8-9

on-and-on for 33 more then

34-35-36-37-38-39

Think that's a total of 38 sequential draws.

BlueDuck

Reply #15

SergeM — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 23:20:44 GMT

...

Reply #14

garyo1954 — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 23:20:22 GMT

You've just explained why your point it moot.

You suggest breaking the entire matrix into two subsets.

Set one being consecutive sequence combinations/permutations.

Set two being non-consecutive sequence combinations/permutations.

At this point you defeat the purpose of deriving the subsets by stating the odds of the overall matrix.

Like RJOh and CT have both stated, once you divide the matrix into a large pool (non-consecutive), and a small pool (consecutive sequence) the odds ch... [ More ]

Reply #13

BlueDuck — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 23:11:53 GMT

Coin Toss:

Wisconsin SuperCash is a 6/39 game with odds of 1:3,904,701. Think this is a list of all possible numerical sequential draws:

1-2-3-4-5-6

6-7-8-9-10-11

11-12-13-14-15-16

17-18-19-20-21-22

22-23-23-25-26-27

28-29-30-31-32-33

34-35-36-37-38-39

All others draws not in sequence.

BlueDuck

Reply #12

Cautious — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 22:21:16 GMT

Coin Toss,

The casino owners would laugh at you for suggesting such a bet. They understand that there are far more non-sequenced numbers. The bet you're suggesting is like asking that someone bet on 10 numbers for $1 and you'll bet on a 100,000 numbers for $1. Let's see now who should win most often - daa?

The casinos would suggest that you pay proportional to the number of plays; $100,000 for your bet on 100,000 numbers and they pay $10 for their bet on 10 numbers. Then they only need to... [ More ]

Reply #11

Coin Toss — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 21:37:49 GMT

Cautious,

How about a wager between you and me.

You pick the game and the state, Pick 5, 6, or multi-state 5 + 1.

I'll pay you $1 every time all numbers in sequence hit, you pay me $1 every time the winning numbers are not in sequence.

Bet?

Naw, I didn't think so.

PS,

Almost everybody here at LP knows not to play 1 2 3 4 5 6 because if it did hit it would indeed bre split many ways.

Reply #10

Cautious — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 19:09:01 GMT

I never said that I don't believe winning is possible. Obviously there are winners. I'm sorry if facts and reality upset you. Don't take it personally, it's just life.

Reply #9

Cautious — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 19:03:56 GMT

That is certainly possible, but I could not find any such info on the web. I did find a statement on a State Lotto website that indicates that few people pick their own numbers, most use quick pick. Winners using self pick or quick pick are proportional to how many tickets each buys. So if 1 thousand people buy a quick pick for every 1 that buys a self pick, over time there will be 1 self pick winner for every 1000 quick pick winners. The odds are simple statistics.

Would you please identify... [ More ]

Reply #8

SergeM — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 18:54:56 GMT

Where does the strategy come from? Comparing odds to history, or using the history and simply analyse it? The non lotteryposter will probably play quickpicks only, or just the same combinations until death puts him apart from the lottery.

Some believe in math and statistics so much, that they are unable to imagine a different outcome than E(X). Let met put this straight, odds are averages!

If you check out the Belgian Keno, you will find 1 to 6 several times, in pick 6 it would have paid 2... [ More ]

Reply #7

RJOh — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 18:18:28 GMT

I've read from several sources the combination 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 is the most popular combination played in most lotteries and if it ever hits, there could be hundreds of winners.

I don't eliminate combinations based on their numbers because numbers aren't important the way I generate combinations to play, they are only used to mark the play slips. I doubt if a 5 or 6 sequential numbers combination would ever be generated, but if it was I would probably play it because I've been happy with the... [ More ]

Reply #6

Cautious — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 17:24:41 GMT

RJOh, You've hit on a key misunderstanding about the odds of winning. Lets start with something concrete; the odds of winning the Mega Million lotto is 1 in 175,711,536.

The odds don't change if you pick a sequence of numbers (7,8,9,10,11; 12 for example), or pick random numbers (19, 25, 29, 33, 51; 18 for example). This is not my opinion, it is fact and reality. If you'd like to hear it from an authority I suggest you check with a casino in Los Vegas - they do not loose money, that's because... [ More ]

Reply #5

RJOh — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 07:09:25 GMT

While it's true any set of numbers can hit, a player picking his own numbers needs a strategy for eliminating some combinations since he can't play them all. Eliminating combinations with all sequential numbers seems like a good place to start since the odds of such a combination ever hitting is way less than 0.1%.

Reply #4

lakerben — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 02:57:33 GMT

Well, I think it was the NM roadrunner cash that had 1 2 3 4 5 . A couple of years back. Anything can happen.

Reply #3

CajunWin4 — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 02:37:39 GMT

The Odds does not Matter . All that matters is if you have the Winning Set of Numbers . Winning is possible its just a matter of the right system and right wheel and filters ..

Reply #2

Scott311 — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 02:25:09 GMT

Great first post! Since you don't believe that winning is possible is it safe to say that this will be your last post on this forum? I hope so.....

Reply #1

dr san — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 00:00:15 GMT

Hello.cautions, I agree with your opinion, but, but how everything is 80/20, because we get 20%? Or is it only looking at the bell curve is where its central range of 80% of the draws, because going against The tide?, Play sequence numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6, play well, it's like in indianapolis race against the direction of the race, we also have positions, example of a lottery 49/6 The numbers 01,02,03,04 numca will never be the 5th and 6th place, understand! 80% of the repetitions Are within the cen... [ More ]

Odds on Misinformation

Cautious — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 23:30:55 GMT

Much misinformation has been posted about the odds of winning the lotto with specific strategies. A common mistake, seen many times, promotes the false idea that the odds of winning the lotto by selecting a sequence of numbers (2, 3, 4, 5, 6; 7) is lower than selecting non-sequenced numbers (8, 15, 24, 31, 48; 5). This idea is false. Any numbers you pick, sequenced or not, have exactly the same probability of winning. This statistical fact seems to be counter intuitive to many people. I ve seen