Anyone else find the jump in MM j/p surprising?

Reply #52

KY Floyd — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 03:42:55 GMT

Not at all. They aren't very concerned with what happens in a small number of drawings at minimum or low jackpots. They have 104 drawings per year and they're trying to find the balance that makes them the biggest yearly profit. Wouldn't you be happy to work the first week of the month for free in exchange for getting paid 25% more the 2nd and 3rd week and 75% more the fourth week? How about if you only had to work the first week for free 2 months of the year? That's about what PB is going for.... [ More ]

Reply #51

maximumfun — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 02:04:33 GMT

Not winning it very often means that some win it seldomly.

I don't need a 100M$CV j/p in order to make all my dreams reality.

Simple dreams, expensive (paying for school for all kids and g'kids is expensive! - let them all get as many degrees as they want and then go into basket-weaving for all I care - a mind once stretched...)

A nice annual family vacation for 2 weeks to visit extended family who are stationed in Argentina.

Fully funding the retirement account (first priority).... [ More ]

Reply #50

THRIFTY — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 23:15:42 GMT

PB is generating more jackpot winners than MM below $100M annuity.

What's the point of playing MM below $100M annuity if lottery players do not win it very often.

Reply #49

Stack47 — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 19:45:55 GMT

This isn't the first time a starting $12 million jackpot has jumped to $20 million for the second drawing, but this time the sales are averaging almost $25 million a drawing compared to around $18 million after other large jackpots were won. Sales don't usually hit $25 million until the jackpot reaches $80 million. It usually takes four drawings to get the jackpot over $30 million and this time it only took three.

It's very possible many PB players came to the conclusion the $1 MM ticket is a... [ More ]

Reply #48

THRIFTY — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 15:00:53 GMT

It is hard for a jackpot not to be won very often nowadays because millions of players are spending billions to win a life changing jackpot.

Reply #47

maximumfun — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 05:04:46 GMT

ok... so the new MM is 31M$ with a 22.3M$CV. This is growing faster than normal. I am getting the 'halo effect' from the last big jackpot, but since MM is growing faster than expected, and PB is being won at lower levels that expected... this must mean that there are alot of newly BALD execs who work with PB from pulling their own hair out.

So, in lottery terms, this is becoming the 'perfect storm' of worst possible scenario's for PB...

The faster a 1$ game grows the less argument there c... [ More ]

Reply #46

maximumfun — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 04:38:16 GMT

Ok - so the PB guru's set up a game with poorer odds than they want because they expect that they will not have to pay out at that level. However, there is still the very real chance that the jackpots will be won at lower levels than they wanted , which will make them find this to NOT be as profitable of a game-change as they wanted/expected.

Am I getting this correct here

Reply #45

KY Floyd — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 04:31:29 GMT

They didn't really lose money, but they didn't make the 50% profit that they normally do.

For the last PB run that resulted in a winner at $70 million sales for the first drawing were $32.4 million, not including powerplay sales. Roughly 32% of sales go to the jackpot prize pool. That gave them a bit lerss than $10.4 million in cash for a $40 million annuity jackpot with a cash value of about $24.3 million. If somebody had won the starting jackpot the available funds would have been about $14... [ More ]

Reply #44

Stack47 — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 00:58:21 GMT

Why don't you spend the $24 or $32 monthly on one particular game? Thereof increasing your chances based on your $6 or $8 weekly budget without spending extra money.

You're missing my point; you buy a $1 dream on Tuesday, a $2 dream on Wednesday, another $1 dream on Friday, and another $2 dream on Saturday. Total cost for the week $6 for four Dreams. You already know the odds against winning something so you sure can't classify that type of wagering as gambling.

The yearly cost is $312 fo... [ More ]

Reply #43

tntea — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 22:37:45 GMT

My thoughts exactly

Reply #42

ryanm — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 22:24:37 GMT

Tomorrow's PB jackpot is actually OVERFUNDED by $1.4 million (based on estimated draw sales of $30 million), but PB has to steal from the jackpot fund at times in order to maintain its emergency fund to pay the secondary prizes in excess of allocated funds as well as guaranteed jackpots. Per their rules, they can skim as much as 2.5% of draw sales from the jackpot in order to maintain its set prize/guaranteed jackpot reserve.

Reply #41

maximumfun — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 16:55:30 GMT

The last 2 jackpots were in the red? The lottery actually LOST money on those 2 jackpots? So what level does the jackpot have to reach for them to be in the black? Will tomorrow's draw - at 80M$ be black or red

Reply #40

Stack47 — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 15:58:26 GMT

Organized crime knew that over time if they paid $600 to $1 odds on a game with 1000 chances, they would make 40% profit on every bet they took and created the numbers racket. The state governments legalized that and other games of chance by promising the revenues would benefit all the residence of the state. Almost all the state lotteries get a 50% profit by only paying $500 to $1 and designed Lotto and other games with about the same or higher profit percentage. The multi-state games like PB a... [ More ]

Reply #39

THRIFTY — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 15:27:41 GMT

Thanks for the tip. I am going to spend my weekly MM and PB budget of $1 and $2 on one shot monthly, $4 on MM and $8 on PB. Thereof increasing my chances without spending extra money.

How about spending $52 on MM and $104 on PB on one shot yearly?

I do not mind dreaming monthly or yearly. Do you

Reply #38

THRIFTY — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 15:00:02 GMT

How about spending $312 or $416 on one shot every year? Is that going to be a problem for you? You are just playing for the dream.

Reply #37

THRIFTY — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 14:31:34 GMT

$6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream.

Why don't you spend the $24 or $32 monthly on one particular game? Thereof increasing your chances based on your $6 or $8 weekly budget without spending extra money.

Spending $24 or $32 on one drawing is not going to be a big deal for you?

You can play like a high roller by spending $24 or $32 monthly on one game drawing. How about this, why not spend $24 or $32 weekly instead of monthly on the lottery?

How do you fe... [ More ]

Reply #36

THRIFTY — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 14:22:31 GMT

As with any lottery, the government runs it as a revenue source. They can do this because if they sell enough lottery tickets, they come out ahead. The reverse is true for you. If you purchase enough lottery tickets in each drawing, you will always come out behind. In other words, the lottery is a game that can only be won in the short run.

Reply #35

ryanm — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 02:37:12 GMT

You're getting it now, Stack47. In fact, the last two Powerball jackpots awarded (the guaranteed pots of $60 million and $70 million annuity) were in the red.

Reply #34

Stack47 — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 00:42:08 GMT

It takes $27 million in sales to cover a cash value of $8.6, then every starting jackpot is in the red. Maybe people really believe the lotteries have money trees. The lotteries will always make money over time because of the take, but they won't give it away even if Thrifty calls their starting jackpot a joke.

Reply #33

rcbbuckeye — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 00:37:18 GMT

Exactly why I play EVERY draw. Even $250,000 retires all of my debt with some left over to fix up the house.

Reply #32

dallascowboyfan — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 23:14:18 GMT

Welcome to the LP Talisman

Reply #31

ryanm — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 22:36:14 GMT

Mega Millions allocates 31.8% of ticket sales to the jackpot winner. $14 million in ticket sales would therefore equate to a cash jackpot of $4.45 million if the opening level wasn't guaranteed, so from the states' point of view, a $8.6 million opening cash jackpot would be underfunded by $4.15 million if it were won. If the state pays out more than 50% of its sales in prizes, it is said to have lost money on the draw (of course, since the non-jackpot prizes are set prizes, there are expected to... [ More ]

Reply #30

Stack47 — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 18:48:32 GMT

The jackpot doesn't have to be huge because for a buck you can still win $250,000 or $1 million for $2 four nights a week. $6 or $8 a week isn't that high of a price for a dream. The advertised jackpot is a ploy but they clearly point out the prize is paid out in yearly installments and state and federal taxes will be deducted each year.

Reply #29

SergeM — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 17:14:26 GMT

The reasoning behind is, you can't win and lower ranks don't pay. When the jackpot is huge, the player feels justified to play.

I think that it is a commercial trick.

Reply #28

Stack47 — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 15:12:48 GMT

MM has 104 drawings a year and while I don't know the exact average of jackpots, 20 is less than 20%. In over 80% of the drawings you have a zero% chance of winning the jackpot.

I'm still willing to pay $1 on MM or $2 on PB for a dream, but I fully understand that out of the 651,915,940 $1 dreams bought on the last MM jackpot, only 3 came true.

Reply #27

Stack47 — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 14:59:25 GMT

The lowest ticket sales I saw for the MM starting $12 million jackpot was around $14 million and the cash value is under $9 million. The individual states are responsible for paying the secondary prizes out of their sales so while collectively they show a small profit, some states could be in the red. With 5 + 0 paying $1 million in PB, that could definitely create problems for lotteries with smaller ticket sales.

Back in the day when Lotto games started at $1 million, but paid the winners in... [ More ]

Reply #26

THRIFTY — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 14:09:41 GMT

Why would i spend $1 on MM with a $12M starting jackpot when it takes less time for me to play for a life changing POWERBALL jackpot? It takes MM a while to reach $40M, Yes PB costs more to play, but you get to play for a life changing jackpot every time it resets.TIME IS MONEY.

Reply #25

maximumfun — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 13:59:32 GMT

I would be thrilled with winning a 12M$ j/p with a 8.6M$CV. And yes, I do realize that by the time I was finished paying taxes and tithes and professional fees that I would have a scant bit over 4.3M$, which would fully fund my retirement. I could then work happily for another 20 or so years - live on what I earn, rather than have to save, ration, and budget. And then in 20 years, retire comfortably on MORE than I was earning previously.

Now THAT is worth it for me with a dollar and that drea... [ More ]

Reply #24

THRIFTY — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 13:50:11 GMT

THE LOTTERY 50/50 RULE=PLAYING THE LOTTERY IS A WIN/LOSE SITUATION NO MATTER HOW MANY TICKETS WE BUY.

BUYING 1 LOTTERY TICKET GIVES YOU A 50/50 CHANCE OF WINNING A LOTTERY JACKPOT.

THE SHOTGUN PLAYING METHOD TO WINNING A LOTTERY JACKPOT.

HITTING THE TARGET.

when a shotgun is fired all those pellets that are crammed into the cartridge spread out so it's easier to hit the target.

Yes you can increase your chances of winning by buying... [ More ]

Reply #23

ryanm — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 02:01:01 GMT

Stack47, you forgot to note that since neither the Mega Millions or Powerball jackpots have doubled at any point in the past five years or more, neither game ever sells enough tickets to fully fund their opening jackpots. Therefore, the opening jackpot is considered a loss leader, or in the case of Powerball, the first three or four draws are loss leaders, since the officials obviously don't expect the opening jackpot to be won often.

Reply #22

Stack47 — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 01:17:45 GMT

MM $12M starting jackpot is a joke.

After thousands of pages discussing the PB and MM jackpots, you still don't understand it. The current $20 million prize is an annuity based on the cash value of $14.3 million from the $25 million wagered on the last drawing combined with what is expected to be wagered on the next drawing. Neither game has a money tree so their starting jackpots are based on expected ticket sales. MM had larger sales following the last run, but it was expected because sale... [ More ]

Reply #21

haymaker — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 00:15:41 GMT

similar problem w/ pic.6 in jersey, very rare for it to hit at less than 6mil.

more often than not it hits in the 12/18 range, thought about waiting for it to get to 8mil. before i play,

if so i would have to pay more attn.to budget tracking,

and then the odds don't change, just the # of tix sold.

Reply #20

THRIFTY — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 23:43:25 GMT

only problem is there is rarely a winner at the start amount,

cause not enough #combos are being bought.

That is my point. NY sweet million rarely has jackpot winners because the playership is very low. Low playership means that less #combos are being bought. I noticed that high playership starts at $40M for Mega millions and at $60M for Powerball.

That is the reason why we have a $2 Powerball game with a $40M starting jackpot. Players have to contribute $2 equally if they want... [ More ]

Reply #19

haymaker — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 23:27:27 GMT

not a joke to me, i will gladly accept the 4mils clear,

only problem is there is rarely a winner at the start amount,

cause not enough #combos are being bought.

Reply #18

ryanm — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 23:19:22 GMT

Actually, what WOULD make sense for Mega Millions, considering it's still $1 to play and that for any given ADVERTISED jackpot, the cash value is 25% higher than Powerball's, would be for the game to increase its opening jackpot to $16 million and have minimum increases of $4 million per draw (double its current minimum increases). That would make it the $1 low advertised jackpot: jackpot cash value equivalent of Powerball.

Reply #17

THRIFTY — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 22:51:08 GMT

MM $12M starting jackpot is a joke. I do not blame those players that wait until MM and PB reach $100M annuity to start playing. When MM and PB hit $100M annuity a higher number of combinations have gone into play.

I usually wait for the $100M plus jackpots because I hate going to lottery retailers frequently, and I do not like to use the advance play feature. I know many players feel the same way. Time is money in this world, it is a matter of time before we able to play the lottery onlin... [ More ]

Reply #16

rad242 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 21:53:56 GMT

I agree with increasing the starting amount with MEGA MILLIONS but there is a price differential here. So either POWERBALL increases even more or MEGA goes up to around $25m.

Reply #15

rad242 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 21:50:45 GMT

I definitely agree that this is a major contributor and then all the press the game has been getting along with the fact that a few very average people have been taking home the money this year.

Maybe a few rookies don't know 3 people won the big jackpot as yet - lol (off the wall I know

Reply #14

NoShame — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 21:43:44 GMT

I admit I never got into playing the lottery seriously and obsessively until last year after that big $390 million jackpot. So I was you last year.

Reply #13

RJOh — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 21:14:57 GMT

In my area there are people who don't play MM but it's hard to believe anyone doesn't know about it with every gas station having a terminal and signs next to the cash register on their counters and every grorcery store having a terminal and signs at the manager booth where every one goes to cash checks or get money orders.

Reply #12

maximumfun — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 20:53:07 GMT

Welcome to Lottery Post Talisman

Reply #11

Talisman — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:35:17 GMT

Maybe it's because there are more people playing now? I didn't even know about MM until the record and I just started playing. I assume there are others like me.

Reply #10

haymaker — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 18:18:17 GMT

ditto.

Reply #9

ttech10 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:35:32 GMT

That was my thought as well.

Reply #8

maximumfun — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:17:20 GMT

Wow 652 million down to 25 million. That is more than mind boggling.

Reply #7

mcginnin56 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 16:35:02 GMT

Your advanced purchases theory is advanced in nature.

Reply #6

RJOh — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:56:26 GMT

When I use to travel out of state to buy BigGame and PowerBall tickets, I would always buy advanced tickets because the time and cost of travel cost more than the tickets. I imagine there were players who brought advanced tickets to avoid the time and hassle of buying tickets again if the jackpot rolled. I would expect that because large jackpots attract people who don't play the lotteries regularly.

Reply #5

dk1421 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:38:24 GMT

That's what I think - advanced purchases.

Reply #4

mcginnin56 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:29:20 GMT

Me to

Reply #3

THRIFTY — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:25:25 GMT

I feel that MEGA MILLIONS and POWERBALL with odds of 1 in: 175,711,536 and 1 in: 175,223,510 should have a $40M starting jackpot for $1.

Reply #2

CDanaT — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:20:03 GMT

Could be because of advanced purchases by players believing of a possible rollover on the 650 million jackpot

Reply #1

Stack47 — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 14:08:30 GMT

A year ago after the $312 million jackpot was hit, the jackpot went from $12 to $19 million so it looks like the sales for last night's drawing were slightly higher. According to the charts on Lotto Report, the ticket sales for the starting jackpot after a big win average over $20 million and there were several jumps from $12 to $19 million.

Considering it was a record jackpot, there are many logical reasons why almost 25 million tickets were sold for last night's starting jackpot. The most s... [ More ]

Anyone else find the jump in MM j/p surprising?

maximumfun — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 12:56:27 GMT

The j/p went from 12M$ to 20M$ - which surprised the thunder outa me.

I was expecting it to go to 16M$-ish... is this a result of the BIG j/p that was just won?

Are people still playing MM in surprising numbers