Calculating odds for a subset of numbers

Reply #11

time*treat — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 02:59:06 GMT

Ha! Yeah, that.

Reply #10

mega-mega — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 21:58:59 GMT

Pct = Percent of times this super set has jackpot winning combo (0.75 or 75%)

Odds = Num * Pct / Set

Simple and I think I think these are the right odds.

And I think you meant Odds = (Num / Pct ) / Set

Or 266666 = (200000/.75) / 1

Thanks

Reply #9

mega-mega — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 21:57:59 GMT

You are misreading the odds on that chart. They are saying the odds of the winning 5+1 combination being among your 200K combinations are 1:879 not 75% and your odds of picking the winning combination from them could be zero. You made an assumption that the charts shows is not true. If you physical have 200K combinations, check them again with previous drawings.

No, I did not misread the odds, not sure what I posted that made you think I did. 173M / 200K ~= 879. Makes sense as i said(if I wer... [ More ]

Reply #8

time*treat — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 06:03:19 GMT

Num = Number of tickets you play out of 200,000

Set = Set of 200,000 super candidates

Pct = Percent of times this super set has jackpot winning combo (0.75 or 75%)

Odds = Num * Pct / Set

extrema:

let Num = 1, then odds of winning a jackpot become 1 in 266,666

let Num = 200,000, then odds of winning a jackpot become 1 in 1.333 (three out of four

Reply #7

nickbrownsfan — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 05:48:02 GMT

your trying to mix in different equations without a given peramiters. Basic if you played all 200K numbers your odds on any given draw should be 1-250000. Again your trying to mix in 2 totally different related peramiters so Im not even sure if that is right. I just used the 1-200K and added in 25% because that is the miss rate.

Reply #6

RJOh — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 19:16:44 GMT

CALCULATE ODDS

combination size 5

basic pool size 56

(B) Bonus pool size 46

smallest match no (B) number 3

largest match with bonus 5

smallest match with bonus 0

tickets or chances per draw 200000

possible combos of 5/56 + 1/46 numbers = 175711536

MATCH ODDS WINNING COMBOS ODDS 200000 CHANCES MATCHES

5/5+B 1 : 175711536 1 1 : 879 0.00

5/5+0 1 : 3904701 45 1 : 20 0.05

4/5+B 1 : 689065 255 1 : 3 0.29

4/5+0 1 : 15313 11475 13 : 1 13.06

3/5+B 1 : 13781 12750... [ More ]

Reply #5

RJOh — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 21:26:55 GMT

You are misreading the odds on that chart. They are saying the odds of the winning 5+1 combination being among your 200K combinations are 1:879 not 75% and your odds of picking the winning combination from them could be zero. You made an assumption that the charts shows is not true. If you physical have 200K combinations, check them again with previous drawings.

When MM had a jackpot of a half billion dollars, don't you think if players had a 75% chance of winning it with only 200K of tickets... [ More ]

Reply #4

mega-mega — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 20:48:57 GMT

Yes, 879 to 1 makes sense but I'm not playing all 200K numbers(that would be nice though!).

I'm trying to calculate my odds of picking the winner out of the 200K ticket pool if I play X number of tickets and

I know the pool contains the winner 75% of the time. The odds are 200K to 1 at least if I play a single

ticket but the part I'm not getting my head around is how the 75% changes things. Does it increrase the

odds 25%? So instead of 200K to 1 on a single ticket it's now 250K... [ More ]

Reply #3

RJOh — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 18:43:57 GMT

tickets or chances per draw 200000

possible combos of 5/56 + 1/46 numbers = 175711536

MATCH ODDS WINNING COMBOS ODDS 200000 CHANCES EXPECT MATCHES

5/5+B 1 : 175711536 1 1 : 879 0.00

5/5+0 1 : 3904701 45 1 : 20 0.05

4/5+B 1 : 689065 255 1 : 3 0.29

4/5+0 1 : 15313 11475 1 : 0 13.06

3/5+B 1 : 13781 12750 1 : 0 14.51

3/5+0 1 : 306 573750 1 : 0 653.06

2/5+B 1 : 844 208250 1 : 0 237.04

1/5+B 1 : 141 1249500 1 : 0 1422.22

0/5+B 1 : 75 2349060 1 : 0 2673.77

Reply #2

mega-mega — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 17:30:25 GMT

I'm not hitting 75% of the time. I'm hitting one time out of a pool of 200K 75% of the time.

I think I'm pharsing it poorly maybe. Let me try to restat it.

Here are the givins:

1. I create a pool of 200K tickets using my system.

2. At least one of the tickets in the 200K pool is a jackpot winner in 75% of the drawings.

Overall my odds seem to be 1 in 200K but only 75% of the time. So what I'm asking is how

do I take the fact that my system is only able to produce... [ More ]

Reply #1

nickbrownsfan — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 01:06:52 GMT

im probably not understanding the question correctly but youve already given your odds by saying you'll hit 75% of the time. The amount of tickets played becomes moot at that point. If you play only 1 ticket or 10 million tickets each draw if you hit 75% of the time your odds of hitting in any given draw are .75:1

Calculating odds for a subset of numbers

mega-mega — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 00:39:44 GMT

Assuming I'm playing 56/46 MegaMillions and I'm able to pick 200,000 tickets for each drawing

that cotains the Jackpot winning ticket for 75% of the drawings. How would I calculate my odds for each drawing?

I've calculated this several different ways and nothing seems right. It's obviously more than 200k/1 but

less than 173m/1.