Do You Think That 1 Quick Pick Ticket Is Random Enough To Win A Mega Millions Or Powerball Jackpot?

Reply #39

Ronnie316 — Sat, 26 May 2012 01:39:13 GMT

No problem media,

do whatever you need to do. It is your time and energy to do as you wish.

I was just thinking that a person with your expertise and talent could try a couple of different approaches to selecting lines and see which ones work best.

It doesn't even seem like you should have to wait for each draw as you could use the previous 700+ winning draws as hits, to see which methods would have hit over the past few years.

There are numerous people here that have methods that th... [ More ]

Reply #38

mediabrat — Fri, 25 May 2012 22:41:53 GMT

I explained my motivations and objectives in the first blog entry. (Side note: I'm surprised it's still up; I thought LP blog entries for standard members weren't visible after 60 days, and it's been a little over 60 days now.)

I had a very specific curiosity and I was able to satisfy it much faster than I expected. I apologize if my abandoning the project upset you in any way.

Reply #37

RJOh — Fri, 25 May 2012 19:06:10 GMT

I think mediabrat tried to answer that in his response. My comments were about similar threads never running long enough to prove anything.

Reply #36

Ronnie316 — Fri, 25 May 2012 18:24:21 GMT

What was the point of one in a 100 really? This is not a liberal arts class room where everything is subjective and you can change definitions at will. This is the real world where the Lotteries pay back 10% (or less) of their take in small prizes. So he went to all that trouble to find out that? if you spend $175,000 you get back $17,000 month after month, year after year? I hope the project can be resurrected with better objectives.

Reply #35

Ronnie316 — Fri, 25 May 2012 16:45:25 GMT

I think this idea would have been genius if the objective had been to win a jackpot.

Here is a way to scientifically test various hypothesis arguments like:

Is it better play the same numbers over and over, compared to using a new set of QP every draw?

Is it better to play all random lines or a group of lines with the bonus ball wheeled?

And these are just 2 questions that My pea shaped brain came up with, I'm sure the LP family could come up with many better questions than mine.... [ More ]

Reply #34

RJOh — Fri, 25 May 2012 05:20:54 GMT

It seemed like a good idea at the time, but I got bored with it and didn't feel like keeping it up.

That happens a lot at LP. Someone comes up with an idea telling everyone that it will change forever how lotteries are played and then they drop it never staying with it long enough to prove if it was any good or not. Six months later some one else comes up a similar idea and start the cycle all over again.

Reply #33

Ronnie316 — Fri, 25 May 2012 02:59:11 GMT

Its a shell game

Reply #32

Stack47 — Fri, 25 May 2012 02:45:55 GMT

overall odds 1 : 39.8

That's the one figure most players overlook. That figure means 97.5% of every ticket sold wins nothing.

Reply #31

RJOh — Fri, 25 May 2012 02:27:50 GMT

I'm talking about all combinations, losers and winners for both games. As you can see in the calculations below there could be up to 45 MM combinations winning second prize and 38 PB combinations.

I've never seen all the possible second prize winners actually win, not even when PB had that fortune cookie incident which had the most second prizes winners ever for either game. There were a few duplicates since all the second prize winners didn't include all the other possible powerballs.... [ More ]

Reply #30

Stack47 — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:49:14 GMT

When you said many duplicates , I thought you meant several duplicates of the same combo. There are many tickets with a twin but if the QP RNG is truly random, shouldn't there be several of the same combination?

Only the people running lotteries have any idea of the number of duplicates printed per game because they are the only ones that have access to the list of all combinations sold.

Some lotteries won't publish the amount of their ticket sales, some have the payoffs, and Tennessee a... [ More ]

Reply #29

Stack47 — Fri, 25 May 2012 01:29:16 GMT

I hit 5 out of 6 before they gave that option. Any winning ticket over $600 had to go through a regional office.

I hit the Pick-4 straight right after they gave that option. It took the clerk over an hour to fill out the claims form, had to get it notarized, and then handed it all to a snotty bank teller. That was probably 20 years ago, but I'll bet even today most clerks have never filled out a claims form and probably don't even know where they are in the store.

Reply #28

THRIFTY — Thu, 24 May 2012 23:09:01 GMT

I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice.

You are talking about MM and PB jackpot winners not second prize winners.

Reply #27

RJOh — Thu, 24 May 2012 22:13:31 GMT

If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was there only 3 winning tickets when 652 million tickets were sold?

How many duplicates do you think are created if only 20% of the losing tickets are printed twice? Why do you think duplicate tickets would be more likely to win than others. While there may be hundreds of duplicate tickets, I doubt if any single combination is ever duplicated more than once or twice. That's the reason PB had an investigation when a combination of five was dupli... [ More ]

Reply #26

Stack47 — Thu, 24 May 2012 21:24:43 GMT

Nationwide, multi-state games probably have many duplicates every day, they just aren't sold at the same terminals at the same time.

If it can happen nationwide but can't on one terminal, they are programing the QPs RNG to do something different than they have defined as random using live ball drawings. Any five number combo plus any bonus number can be drawn, but apparently any five combo plus any bonus number until the program recycles

If there are as many duplicates as you say, why was... [ More ]

Reply #25

Ronnie316 — Thu, 24 May 2012 20:51:19 GMT

Too bad, I thought it was the most innovative and interesting thing on all of LP.

Reply #24

mediabrat — Thu, 24 May 2012 20:29:06 GMT

However, if people takes the time and energy (they wont) to play the same lines every time the odds of hitting increase with each passing draw. ( the one in 1000 blog will never hit because of the RNG used)

That was never the point of the blog. I suppose the name was misleading, and that's my fault, but I was trying to see what you could get in lower-tier prizes when you played that many lines.

I very well could have generated one set and used those for all drawings rather than making a f... [ More ]

Reply #23

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Thu, 24 May 2012 19:51:30 GMT

rdgrnr

I have the same problem, at least I think I do, can't remember.

RL

Reply #22

RJOh — Thu, 24 May 2012 18:35:42 GMT

In Ohio with any match that pays less than $5000, you have the option of going to any designated bank on a business day with your ticket verified by a retailer and picking up your money.

Reply #21

Ronnie316 — Thu, 24 May 2012 17:04:40 GMT

I do think 1 is enough BUT I think 20 on one draw is BETTER. QP gives the lotteries a very distinct and unfair advantage over the general public for the simple fact that people almost NEVER repeat the lines.

When people change there picks every draw (using QP or otherwise) They in essence create a moving target for the winning numbers to hit.

Secondly, buying 46 random lines does NOT create a true 1 in 3.9 million chance, it only creates 46 independent 1 in 175 million chances. (like a slo... [ More ]

Reply #20

RJOh — Thu, 24 May 2012 17:03:20 GMT

They called it a glitch when a player bought multiple ten combo QPs and two of the tickets had the same ten combos. They even showed the odds against that randomly happening. Because they called it a glitch, it must mean the QP RNG is programed to randomly select from combos not already sold.

You obviously didn't get that explanation from any official lottery source. You took the explanation of the glitch and made some conclusions of your own.

A RNG is a mathematical formula that produces... [ More ]

Reply #19

Stack47 — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:54:57 GMT

I hit 5 out of 6 twice, once using self picks and won what turned out to be one of the lowest payoffs in the history of that lotto game. Had to wait six weeks for the check and paid taxes on it the following year. The second time it was a QP playing in a pool. My share of that $1500 prize was 50 bucks.

Reply #18

Stack47 — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:44:28 GMT

The only guarantee the lotteries make about one QP is, the player will get five random numbers between 1 to 56 and one random bonus number between 1 to 46. QPs generated from unsold combos doesn't change that guarantee or prevent the live ball drawing from having one of those combos.

They called it a glitch when a player bought multiple ten combo QPs and two of the tickets had the same ten combos. They even showed the odds against that randomly happening. Because they called it a glitch, it m... [ More ]

Reply #17

PoeticJustice32 — Thu, 24 May 2012 04:33:06 GMT

How can there be several billion combinations if the chances of winning are 1 in 175,000,000. Isn't the total number of combinations 175,000,000?

As for the original topic. Yes I believe one ticket is enough to win. Many people have won with just one ticket, but that doesn't stop me from buying more per draw. I don't know why....maybe its just a sickness.

Reply #16

Lucky Loser — Thu, 24 May 2012 03:26:46 GMT

Well, we're talkin' about over several billion combinations in total first of all. Then, while it may SEEM that tons of numbers were sold, 191 million isn't a terrible dent when compared to the total amount of possibilities. One number changes everything when considering a single line also. How many people matched 3 and 4 numbers? How many got the power ball only?

I'm certain that lots of tickets got all or most of the winning numbers scattered on various lines...not very hard to do at all. 4... [ More ]

Reply #15

RJOh — Thu, 24 May 2012 03:07:50 GMT

Lotteries don't guarantee that there'll be no duplications of combinations until after every combinations has been printed. If their terminals are like most RNG and even their drawings, after about 2% of the combinations have been printed or drawn, duplications start happening. I would be surprised if they would print all 175 millions possible combinations before over 200M lines had been printed.

Reply #14

Stack47 — Thu, 24 May 2012 02:55:02 GMT

But the theory doesn't explain why there were no winners when 191 million tickets were sold the drawing before the record was set unless about 20 million tickets were self picks and they didn't sell every combo.

Reply #13

RJOh — Thu, 24 May 2012 02:53:48 GMT

Write it down in a computer file with a name that easy to remember, that what I do. I don't need a pad or a pencil. If I ever forget where I left my desk top computer then I won't need the information.

Reply #12

Stack47 — Thu, 24 May 2012 02:50:09 GMT

I've always looked at buying QPs as a random drawing (1 out of 175 million or whatever the matrix is) so I have to match two equally random drawings to win the jackpot. It's possible each QP is unique and can only be matched by a self pick or if more tickets are sold than the number of combinations in the matrix.

Reply #11

rdgrnr — Thu, 24 May 2012 02:45:52 GMT

...you have the advantage of picking several combinations and a memory of what has happened in the past.

Not me.

I have a terrible memory.

And don't say, well, write everything down then, cuz I'll forget where I wrote it down at.

I can't remember where my pen is anyway.

Reply #10

RJOh — Thu, 24 May 2012 02:24:50 GMT

OR...

Your TICKET match the drawn numbers.

I think it's easier trying to pick a combination that will match the drawn numbers rather than picking combinations randomly with no strategy hoping the drawn numbers will match your numbers. After all, there is only one set of drawn numbers but you have the advantage of picking several combinations and a memory of what has happened in the past.

Reply #9

CajunWin4 — Wed, 23 May 2012 23:10:05 GMT

You're looking at it WRONG !! It does not matter about your ticket numbers , all that matters is if the Drawn numbers match your TICKET !!!!!! You could have 1 ticket or 10,000 tickets all that matters if the Balls Drawn Match your Ticket .....

Reply #8

rad242 — Wed, 23 May 2012 22:23:33 GMT

The when would certainly firm things up!

This theory would definitely explain why outside of record setting jackpots that only one person wins.

Reply #7

Stack47 — Wed, 23 May 2012 22:18:03 GMT

652 million tickets were sold and divided by 175 million = 3.725 but that includes self picks so it sure looks like it. Though I suspect it was much higher, for that drawing, PB says 70% to 80% of all ticket sales are QPs. 80% of ticket sales was 522 million and divided by 175 million = 3.

If we knew when the ticket were sold we could make a case for Unsolved Mysteries.

Reply #6

jeankedemetser — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:27:53 GMT

Everything is possible...

Reply #5

rad242 — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:10:43 GMT

3 Random QPs won the historical jackpot.

Are you suggesting that all possible combinations have to be pulled by the system in order for it to issue that same QP again

Reply #4

Stack47 — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:05:12 GMT

Arizona printed tickets with the same 10 QPs and said it was a glitch and were fixing the problem. If I can't get the same QP combination as you by happenstance, the QPs can't be really random.

The TN Lottery had a do not repeat numbers command on their Pick-5 drawing RNG and the same program was used for the Pick-3 and Pick-4 games. It's very possible all the QP generators are programed not to duplicate any previous combination for that drawing. Any type of command that would influence the s... [ More ]

Reply #3

RJOh — Wed, 23 May 2012 20:53:42 GMT

Any combination is random enough to win, even a self-pick. The odds of it winning are not changed by its randomness.

Reply #2

dallascowboyfan — Wed, 23 May 2012 20:38:14 GMT

Yes, all it takes is one...

Reply #1

mcginnin56 — Wed, 23 May 2012 20:15:13 GMT

Who cares if it's random, as long as it's the winning number.

Do You Think That 1 Quick Pick Ticket Is Random Enough To Win A Mega Millions Or Powerball Jackpot?

THRIFTY — Wed, 23 May 2012 20:02:42 GMT

I feel that 1 Mega Millions or Powerball Quick Pick ticket is random enough to win the jackpot because of the large field of numbers.