Help with Prediction Needed

Reply #18

martor854 — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 05:44:15 GMT

Hi billibuoy,

Thanks. I already have the file from you. Please, see my PM.

Hi SergeM,

That's an interesting viewpoint. Thank you for the contribution. I'll check it.

Best regards to you both,

martor854

Reply #17

SergeM — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 13:03:58 GMT

If you use Bayes for pick 3, then you might think that all combinations will happen in 1000 drawings for pick 3. In the real world, that would just be too easy. Here we passed 3000 drawings and several combinations did not appear.

By randomness for 3000 drawings it could be 000 in pick 3 every time. In the real world, I cannot believe that the organizers of a lottery will let this pass.

Reply #16

billybouy — Thu, 02 Aug 2012 12:38:45 GMT

Hi martor854,

Try this it may help.

https://www.box.com/s/cae29ed0dfeff2eb0145

Reply #15

martor854 — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 09:00:31 GMT

Hi AlgorithmGuru,

Thanks a lot for the info. It is exactly what I've been looking for. I'll get the book somehow and... get my nose on the grindstone. It is obvious you do know your stuff. Thanks again for your help.

Best regards,

martor854

Reply #14

AlgorithmGuru — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 04:43:42 GMT

Hey martor. There is a wealth of information online about XmR charts or Individual moving range charts. It basically means you are charting data that has one source, (for instance daily sales, or in your case, daily frequency of an event and NOT an average recording, such as the average temperature today). It's a great method because it not only tracks the individual readings but also the movement between readings. Which is what can help to show patterns. If all the numbers plot within the limit... [ More ]

Reply #13

martor854 — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 06:59:11 GMT

Hi AlgorithmGuru,

Thank you for your contribution. I find it very fair and sensible. I have my doubts, too, that past, independent occurrences can help with predicting new ones. So, all that remains is probability. But, maybe I m wrong.

Your view is interesting but I don t know what an XmR chart is. I d appreciate it if you could give an example or indicate where I can get one.

Intuitively, I m inclined to go for Markov chains/model (like somebody else suggested) as I think our problem

Reply #12

AlgorithmGuru — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 04:09:05 GMT

quote 'm looking for help on the following problem (it's similar to the lottery): I'm following a phenomenon and I'm taking readings 15 times a day. Each reading can be classed A, B or C. So, every day I'm getting a string of 15 readings. The readings are evenly spread during the day and they are independent. They don't influence each other in any way. So far, I have n days and n readings. I need to predict the string (the whole row) on day n+1 /quote

Hey Martor854, I like this problem and s... [ More ]

Reply #11

martor854 — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 06:24:41 GMT

Hi RJOh,

That is the best answer yet. It should be applicable to almost anything of the sort, including the lottery. Could you give me an idea on how I should start? Some indication on what to read, maybe? Also, we can on it together. I can do a bit of programming in QBasic. It may not be much but it's simple and fast.

Thank you.

martor854

Reply #10

RJOh — Sat, 14 Jul 2012 02:20:10 GMT

Then your best bet is to backward engineer each result and see if one algorithm comes up more than any other. This won't be 100% but I think if it's concerning lotteries then even 10% would be excellent.

Reply #9

martor854 — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 16:38:49 GMT

Hi RJOh,

It all started from a real phenomenon but I'm after a generally applicable algorithm.

Regards,

martor854

Reply #8

RJOh — Sat, 07 Jul 2012 10:26:51 GMT

Without knowing more about the phenomenon that's giving you those readings, it would be hard to say.

Reply #7

martor854 — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 18:16:35 GMT

Thanks billibuoy,

Got it. I'll have a look and get back to you. Keep well and keep up the good work.

Best regards,

martor854

Reply #6

billybouy — Thu, 05 Jul 2012 16:30:22 GMT

Hi martor854,

I have sent you a sample worksheet, if that is not what you are looking for please advise.

Regards,

billybouy...

Reply #5

martor854 — Wed, 04 Jul 2012 05:12:46 GMT

Hi RJOh,

Sounds interesting. Can you suggest anything? Any direction I can start searching?

Thanks. Regards,

martor854

Reply #4

RJOh — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 19:59:34 GMT

Sounds like something I did years ago when working as an industrial engineering technician taking work samples. You need to chart your data to see if any occurs most often or can be associated with a particular time. You may come up with even more ideas once you start charting the data.

Reply #3

SergeM — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 17:25:27 GMT

A, B and C have to show the readings.

What did you measure with A, B and C

Reply #2

martor854 — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 17:11:21 GMT

Hi SergeM,

Thanks for taking the time to have a look at my problem. Here are your answers:

Y1, Y2,... = Column headers, instead of ordinal numerals (I, II,... or #1, #2,...).

A, B, and C are readings. Imagine a meter that shows A at the moment of the first reading, C for the second, B for the third, a.s.o. This meter can only show A, B or C. The readings are independent of each other. It's like a random generator problem.

day is a day (24 hours or a working day). I don't think it's... [ More ]

Reply #1

SergeM — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 16:17:03 GMT

What does Y stand for?

What do A, B and C stand for?

What does the word day stand for

Help with Prediction Needed

martor854 — Tue, 03 Jul 2012 06:11:31 GMT

Hi,

I'm looking for help on the following problem (it's similar to the lottery): I'm following a phenomenon and I'm taking readings 15 times a day. Each reading can be classed A, B or C. So, every day I'm getting a string of 15 readings. The readings are evenly spread during the day and they are independent. They don't influence each other in any way. So far, I have n days and n readings. I need to predict the string (the whole row) on day n+1.

Here's an example of what I'm getting:

Y1... [ More ]