Rollover Probabilities for Powerball's current jackpot.

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Wed, 15 Aug 2012 22:53:04 GMT

because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen

First, what universe are you in where that's how it works?

Second, the increase in the jackpot is based on selling about 70 million tickets. Even if there wasn't a single repeated combination that would leave about 105 million unplayed combinations, and about a 60% chance of a rollover.

Reply #4

Prob988 — Wed, 15 Aug 2012 14:50:14 GMT

The new probabilities of various numbers of winners, reflecting the new jackpot figures of $213.3M Cash/$320M Annuity are given in the following table:

k, number of winners p(m,k)

0 68.25%

1 26.07%

2 4.98%

3 0.63%

4 0.06%

...if anyone's interested.

Also if anyone's interested, the pretax cash basis expectation value is 0.73.

Anything can happen, but the Poisson distribution (randomized) would seem to suggest that the most probable outco... [ More ]

Reply #3

Prob988 — Mon, 13 Aug 2012 20:39:50 GMT

This is certainly possible. If they sold the 169M tickets I spoke of above, the new jackpot would be approximately $225M cash/338M annuity.

I would expect it to end up somewhere in that neighborhood, but even so the most probable outcome would still be a rollover.

Reply #2

weshar75 — Mon, 13 Aug 2012 00:07:28 GMT

I am wondering if the cash value will increase before wednesday night since their is 4 days before the drawing.-weshar75

Reply #1

LottoBoner — Sun, 12 Aug 2012 22:17:04 GMT

based on thrifty anlalysis that all Qp GENERATE jackpot winners...then i would assume the jackpot will not roll...

somebody will win this draw...because duplicate Quick PIcks cannot happen thus making the probablity of a quick pick losing ticket infintesimal.

Rollover Probabilities for Powerball's current jackpot.

Prob988 — Sun, 12 Aug 2012 16:32:05 GMT

The current Powerball jackpot is $203M Cash/$305 million annuity as of this writing.

Based on these figures the anticipated sales, according to the Lottery, should be around 102.6M, yielding 56.3 million tickets sold.

The Poisson probability distribution for this number of sales (purely randomized) suggests the following probabilities for this many tickets sold:

k, number of winners p(m,k)

0 74.62%

1 21.84%

2 3.20%

3 0.31%

4 0.02%

Anything can... [ More ]