Who has better odds of hitting 3 of 5 ?

Reply #52

Ronnie316 — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 18:17:47 GMT

Reply #51

Ronnie316 — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 18:17:22 GMT

The other thing is that I don't mind losing whatever money I decide to spend on tickets, as I consider it a step toward making a winning purchase no matter how many times it takes to get the winner in my hand.

Reply #50

Ronnie316 — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 18:15:06 GMT

For me its a good test of intuition and timing.... Just my thoughts......

Reply #49

Ronnie316 — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 18:13:20 GMT

This is one of the reasons I visit casino machines on occasion...... There is a instant confirmation as to if the timing was good or not good within just a few short pulls. I have won small jackpots on casino machines many many times and its always been within the first 10-12 pulls. If a person knows how to cut loses and run its not too hard to hang around a casino and win some cash or lose a small amount.

The hard part is when ZERO of the machines are about to hit and what to do with the ext... [ More ]

Reply #48

Ronnie316 — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 18:07:59 GMT

As I said earlier, I think your timing was just off a bit when you walked up to the machine.....

Reply #47

Ronnie316 — Sun, 11 Nov 2012 18:06:36 GMT

Oh, sorry to hear that Lucky...... Perhaps your luck was working in reverse that day as the more seasoned lottery LP members have pointed out it would be more difficult to NOT get a small win with so many tickets that perhaps you could consider NOT winning a very big win and try your luck again...... Perhaps

Reply #46

LuckyFloridian — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 04:32:26 GMT

Yea.. I did..

Reply #45

Ronnie316 — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 22:48:45 GMT

Try buying them all at one time and see what happens......

Reply #44

CARBOB — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 18:18:43 GMT

Thank you!! My wife once had 4/5 QP. Missed position 1, draw was a 2, she had a 3.

Reply #43

Stack47 — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 17:50:21 GMT

Assuming the 5/36 game pays off $1 for a two number match, 5 QPs have about a 66% chance of winning something every drawing so they should win something in about 240 of the drawings. If it's Florida Fantasy 5, the majority of those wins will be free tickets so the actual number of wins is much smaller because to win something, those free ticket have to win something.

Last time I was in Florida, I played the Grouper and won a F5 free ticket that won free tickets in the next four drawings. Had... [ More ]

Reply #42

Stack47 — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 16:53:58 GMT

The Harry Potter math I'm talking about is when someone believes buying 5000 MM will give them 35,000 to 1 odds of winning the jackpot; as if the over 175 million losing combos magically disappear. On paper it looks much better than their actual 0.00285% chance of winning.

The odds against 5000 QPs having a five number match are about 780 to 1 but a group of 28 numbers played in 4 if 4 wheel with at least 5 four number matches (when 5 of the numbers are drawn), has 4.6 to 1 odds of matching f... [ More ]

Reply #41

CARBOB — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 16:01:53 GMT

Stack,

If I were to buy 5 QP each draw, 7 draws per week, 5/36 tkts. How many times can I expect to win something in one year

Reply #40

Stack47 — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 15:44:36 GMT

Buying 300 QP and winning nothing is almost as hard as buying 1 QP and winning something.

Statistically there should be at least five tickets winning something so I'm guessing the 300 tickets weren't bought for just one drawing. Even 30 at tickets a drawing for ten drawings should produce five winning tickets. The overall odds were higher with the $1 ticket. but that's still a 80% chance 30 tickets should have at least one winner of something in each of the ten drawings.

It would be incre... [ More ]

Reply #39

RJOh — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 20:49:23 GMT

Buying 300 QP and winning nothing is almost as hard as buying 1 QP and winning something.

Buying 300 QP and winning only a couple of dollars is more likely but probably feels like winning nothing.

Reply #38

Ronnie316 — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 15:39:36 GMT

I don't think it was stupidLuckyFloridian. Your timing was just off a bit when you walked up to the machine.

I have played 100 QPs and had two 3 of 5s...... Its all in the timing..........

Reply #37

LuckyFloridian — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:22:45 GMT

I played 300 qps on the 1 dollar power ball and didn't win anything.. I was pretty stupid to buy 300 qps though and expect to win something. I pick my own numbers in cash 3 and play 4, and get lucky sometimes! I was thinking 3 of 5 on the roller of 10 lol

Reply #36

Ronnie316 — Sat, 03 Nov 2012 15:50:28 GMT

I happened to like Harry Potter, any math that's good enough for him is good enough for me.......

Reply #35

Stack47 — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 22:36:55 GMT

For clarity, there is only one combo that will match five numbers so no matter how many tickets are played, the to 1 can't be changed. If you play 10,000 tickets without multiples there is still only one way you can get a five number match. There are five ways to match four numbers and the to 5 can't be changed, but can be reduced to the lowest common denominator as the to 10 for two and three number matches.

There are 3825 different ways the two number match the wheel guarantees can get a th... [ More ]

Reply #34

Stack47 — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:43:30 GMT

I believe I made a mistake by reducing the odds to the lowest common denominator when the true odds are much higher. It's really doing Harry Potter math by pretending many of the chances against winning magically don't exist. The odds against matching three numbers are 306 to 1 so the usual approach is to divide 306 by the number of tickets played. In this example it would be 306 divided by 46 or 6.65 to 1. Odds should be expressed as chances to lose compared to chances to win so the odds might... [ More ]

Reply #33

Ronnie316 — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 16:21:21 GMT

OR perhaps 3 times worse odds is a fair price to pay for not having to fill out play slips.....

Reply #32

Ronnie316 — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 16:19:51 GMT

Perhaps a QP gives a greater sense of accomplishment when they do eventually win something......

Reply #31

Ronnie316 — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 16:16:28 GMT

Perhaps only a mathematician can figure out the difference between 18 to 1 and 60 to 1......

Reply #30

Ronnie316 — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 14:59:17 GMT

Thanks for helping me clear this up Stack........

mcginnin56 and I had a challenge on the predictions forum for one draw and I tried to explain to him that my 46 lines had much BETTER ODDS of hitting a 3 of 5 than did his smelly QP lines........

My cursory observations was that my odds were around 3 times BETTER......

The contention is still quite sharp as (after losing) he went on to post in his signature that

QP ODDS ARE THE SAME AS SELF-PICK ODDS ........

Reply #29

Stack47 — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 01:58:27 GMT

Since your wheel is guaranteed to have 1 two number match and uses every number, your odds are 18 to 1 (3 chances out of 54). 46 QPs could have up to 460 three number combos so divide the number of possible three digit matches (27,720) by 460, The odds of 46 QPs having a three number match are about 60 to 1.

Reply #28

Ronnie316 — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 00:17:21 GMT

OOpsadaisy.... Im sorry to hear of your heart breaking mistake. I hope you will sleep at night

Reply #27

Ronnie316 — Fri, 12 Oct 2012 00:15:32 GMT

He also said his pool had gone private, so he wont be accepting $2.50 from anyone else.

Reply #26

RJOh — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 22:48:57 GMT

May be he thought someone outside his pool was using the information he was posting better than they could. In one of his post he said he would continue answering their questions using his private forum.

Reply #25

RJOh — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 22:34:15 GMT

I've seen that happen before and every time you can tell they're back the minute they post a response because everything they do is the same as before, only the name is different. Maybe he's just lurking, he doesn't need any identity to do that.

Reply #24

mcginnin56 — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 22:33:50 GMT

Ahhh yes, playing the old hard to get routine. I've seen this happen many times in the past. I wouldn't take it too personally.

Reply #23

mcginnin56 — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 22:23:32 GMT

My sources tell me he's already back with a new identity, but he's lurking and lying low for now.

My sources also tell me, he thinks it's very easy to get back in the door with a new identity.

Reply #22

mcginnin56 — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 22:19:37 GMT

Whoops....sorry Ronnie316, how could I have over looked not giving you your well deserved five star rating?

Consider it done right now! Wanted to give you 6 stars, but management refused to budge, sorry buddy.

Reply #21

RJOh — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 21:54:58 GMT

Two other LP members thought Ronnie deserved five stars so two out of three isn't bad. I hope you still gave Jade his five stars.

Reply #20

frenchie — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 21:40:07 GMT

Ronnie,

I made a mistake by giving you 5 stars, it was for Jade's tread, I asked Todd to removed it but he said it couldn't be done, just letting you know.

Frenchie.

Reply #19

riscknight — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 20:02:31 GMT

He propably could, you're right.

Problem is, if you do bad things all the time, lie to people etc... in the end you'll get what you deserve. Its all about balance in this life.

What you give, is what you'll eventually receive . And the scariest part is, that you always get back the bad with the worst case scenario .

Reply #18

RJOh — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 19:46:17 GMT

As the IndianaKid, he's probably on a permanent leave of absence. He might be able to snick back in with a new name and IP address.

Reply #17

riscknight — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 19:25:30 GMT

Ronnie the best way to output the results you'd like regarding the odds, is to backtest the 46 + 46 combinations you mention through all the 3.819.816 combinations that a 5/56 LOTTERY game has. If it was a pick 6 game from a maximum of 49 numbers for example, I could do that for you. Still, I might be able to provide some info and data from older programs; I'll let you know.

Keep in mind though that it is a 2 out of 5 wheel; with 46 combinations. Don't hold your hopes too high for getting a... [ More ]

Reply #16

Ronnie316 — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 15:35:26 GMT

Hi Rick.

The question is in regard to the 46 combinations produced by the LP 2 if 5 of 56 wheel VS. the 46 combinations produced by the LP (high quality, grain fed) QP generator........

What are the odds (for each) of hitting 3 of 5

Reply #15

Ronnie316 — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 15:30:40 GMT

Thank you mcginnin56,

Perhaps RL already knows and he just simply will not tell us

Reply #14

riscknight — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 13:49:00 GMT

Hello Ronnie316.

You select 5 numbers from 56.

In order to have 3 numbers correct, your chances are 1 in 300. That equals to 12.750 combinations that you'll have to play.

For getting 2 numbers, 1 in 18 and 208.250 combinations.

Would you like to let me know how many numbers you're thinking about wheeling? And, if you can copy paste those numbers here in order to test verify them on some filters?

Regards.

Reply #13

mcginnin56 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 23:32:23 GMT

Sounds like you need a certified mathematician/Lotto Guru/programmer analyst to assist you in this area.

Normally I would recommend speaking to the reputable IndianaKid, but he is temporarily on a leave of extended absence.

You might consider running this by THRIFTY, RJ, or Stack for further analysis.

Good luck Ronnie316

Reply #12

Ronnie316 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 23:03:21 GMT

Sure...... In some alternate reality......

Reply #11

Coin Toss — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 21:57:10 GMT

Happens all the time, doesn't it

Reply #10

Ronnie316 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 21:30:03 GMT

Thats like saying it doesnt really matter if I play 60 tickets and you play 20 tickets because you could have more winners on your 20 tickets than I have on my 60 tickets

Reply #9

Coin Toss — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 21:28:08 GMT

Free Range QP's?

Boy would that look great on a playslip:

QP

FRQP

Reply #8

Ronnie316 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 21:18:25 GMT

If I'm just dreaming here I will be happy to find out that I'm wrong........ But when I have a 2 number match guaranteed on 46 lines and the other 54 numbers have 3 chances to land on that same line my odds are 3 in 54 of hitting 3 of 5 and that's about 3 times BETTER than the 46 in 308 chance that your QPs have.........

Someone do the math please, and tell me if I'm wrong

Reply #7

Ronnie316 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 21:07:28 GMT

In other words, why are the odds of hitting 3 of 5 BETTER on a 2 if 5 of 56 wheel than on QPs.

Am I to understand that the odds are NOT better?? Its just the luck of the draw

Reply #6

Ronnie316 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:54:46 GMT

Finding a reliable mathematical solution is not the objective.

If a 2 if 5 of 56 wheel is guarenteed a 2 of 5 match on 46 lines, someone plaease explain why any random 46 lines is NOT guarenteed a 2 of 5 match

Reply #5

mediabrat — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:47:09 GMT

That's the thing with random, though: you can't predict random. I could play two QPs and hit 2 out of 5 on one or both of them. I could play 10, 15, 20 QPs or more and not get two matches on any of them. There is no reliable mathematical solution.

Reply #4

mcginnin56 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:15:07 GMT

Thank you for that informative and educational response Algo.

I agree with everything, and was just giving 'ol Ronnie316 a run for his money.

He did very well last evening in the predictions board for MM's. Accordingly he should be treated with the highest level of respect and dignity.

Reply #3

Ronnie316 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 14:12:09 GMT

Thanks for the lengthy response,

but I came to this thread asking for a math solution not semantical digression.

Lets look at it this way. How many random lines can be played WITHOUT getting 2 of 5 on a single line

Reply #2

AlgorithmGuru — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 07:28:25 GMT

LOL. so I'm going to jump in and play a little semantics game really quick (this isn't an attack, just a semantical note lol). So the reality is, all the numbers have the exact same OODS of hitting in any drawing. The QP's don't have better odds, they have a better statiscal win history. That does not mean that the best numbers to play are QP's. Actually you could argue that QP's hit the most because the most people play them. All this is indicative of is the natural order of the randomness. In... [ More ]

Reply #1

mcginnin56 — Wed, 10 Oct 2012 00:52:29 GMT

Quality raised, range free, grain fed, wholesome, pure random QP's, will always have the better odds.

Who has better odds of hitting 3 of 5 ?

Ronnie316 — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:30:52 GMT

Playing the 5/56 game with 46 QPs....

OR

Playing the 5/56 game with a 2 if 5 of 56 wheel with 46 lines....

I believe the wheel has almost 3 times better chance of hitting 3 of 5,

Im just not sure about the math.....