The Powerplay Option

Reply #32

jimmy4164 — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 15:52:26 GMT

No simulation was used to construct the tables.

Reply #31

jimmy4164 — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 15:43:43 GMT

Here is the updated Table displaying PB vs PP Odds.

The Jackpot of $112M was backed into using .500 as the target ROI.

$2 Powerball $3 Powerplay

Hit Odds Payout ROI* Payout ROI*

PB 1/55 4 .036 12 .073

1+1 1/111 4 .018 12 .036

2+1 1/706 7 .005 14 .007

3+0 1/360 7 .010 14 .013

3+1 1/12,245 100 .004 200 .005

4+0 1/19,088 100 .003 200 .003

4+1 1/648,976 10,000 .008 40,000 .021

3RD Tier Expected ROI .084 .158

5+0 1/5,153,633 1,000,000 .097 2,000,000 .129

2ND 3... [ More ]

Reply #30

SergeM — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 11:41:06 GMT

I suggest that you compare it to rolling a dice. The expanation is much simpler and you don't need a simulation.

Reply #29

jimmy4164 — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 07:41:36 GMT

It looks like the break even point is a Jackpot of $112M.

The total ROI, NOT including the 5+1 Jackpot, for

PB vs PP is .181 vs .287. (See above)

So, excluding the 5+1 Jackpot, the ROI for Powerplay is significantly better, nearly 60% better.

Increasing the Jackpot to $112M changes the

PB (Jackpot Only) ROI to .320 and the

PP (Jackpot Only) ROI to .213 .

.181 + .320 = .501 (PB)

.287 + .213 = .500 (PP)

.500 is the amount most lotteries claim they give back, so I think

Reply #28

Boney526 — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 04:19:22 GMT

The ROIs might be close (if you include the top two prizes, which I'd argue you should,) but you are increasing the total expense. If you don't count those - then Powerplay is a better bet, but both are terrible without the top two prizes inclusion (and are pretty terrible, anyway.)

And as the jackpot grows, I'd imagine the ROI of not taking powerplay to exceed the ROI of taking it, although, with a starting jackpot taking Powerplay is better from an ROI standpoint.

If I was forc... [ More ]

Reply #27

jimmy4164 — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 08:13:56 GMT

Boney526,

Please double check my calculations. If they're correct, it seems to me that the $3 Powerplay is a better bet than the $2 ticket, especially if you ignore the 5+0 and 5+1 Jackpots. It's still not much consolation though. I wonder how many people would play Roulette if the payouts there were structured in proportion to these?

As usual, choosing a payout value for the 5+1 is problematic. If they really do pay back 0.50, an adjustment would need to be made there. It's surprising th... [ More ]

Reply #26

jimmy4164 — Sat, 09 Feb 2013 07:54:39 GMT

dr san,

Thanks for the bibliography.

--Jimmy4164

Reply #25

dr san — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 19:49:19 GMT

I hope it will be inspiring for other lottery players. List contains also few terms related to gambling, like combinadic .

Classical views: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_definition_of_probability http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_probability

Alternative points of view: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_probability Empirical probability, also known as relative frequency, or experimental probability, i... [ More ]

Reply #24

Boney526 — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 19:21:18 GMT

I disagree. Your ROI may be higher, but your overall expense per ticket is also greater. If it's .30 and .50 return on the dollar, but you can spend $2 or$3 dollars respectively, the overall cost is larger playing the Powerplay option. And if you play when there are large jackpots only, the EV actually probably get's larger without the powerplay option. I didn't actually do the math to find out - I'm kinda just guessing because I don't wanna do the work right now (and b/c I don't really like to... [ More ]

Reply #23

dr san — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 19:14:24 GMT

Hello, this condition of sergem followed can also put vertically

Example =

01 02 03 04 05

06 07 08 09 10

11 12 ...

Depending on how it assembles an array, but this example = 01.06. Are consecutive numbers

Another example = 05.10, are numbers in a row vertically, there are also the delta value for the pair worth = two and three example = 01.03 = value delta 2 and delta value 04 01.04

So in addition to the sequel in horizonta, = we have in vertical sequences 01.02 (as array) 0... [ More ]

Reply #22

SergeM — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 19:07:47 GMT

You can prosecute and jail people working in the tobacco industry today. Same for resellers and mean smokers. People with master degrees are working in the tobacco industry, they should be lynched.

Reply #21

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 18:40:35 GMT

It is actually worse than that, SergeM.

Don't forget that the probability of 2 consecutives is quite a ways from 1.0, so your 55 tickets don't even guarantee that!

By the way, I agree with your signature line! And if any of the cigarette corporation officials who suppressed laboratory evidence of the hazards of smoking as far back as the 1930s are still alive, they should be prosecuted, and hopefully, jailed!

--Jimmy4164

Reply #20

SergeM — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 17:38:30 GMT

Even knowing the probability you will have hard to guess right based on that.

Let's say that you have a pick 5 game with 56 numbers. You think, hope, guess, dreamt, ... that there will be exactly 2 consecutive numbers drawn. 5-2=3 not consecutive numbers, but that is still unsure, you can have 5 consecutive numbers or just none.

Again, 2 consecutive numbers of 56 numbers, 55 tickets to get 2/5 right

Reply #19

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 17:20:33 GMT

Thanks Dr San,

That is a very interesting article. (Trying To Be Random in Selecting Numbers for Lotto - Boland) It could be subtitled, Where Psychology Meets Mathematics!

I wasn't able to access Speckman's article, Lottery Loophole Explained. Do you know what the loophole was, and how long after 1986 it took them to close it?

Here are a couple quotes from Boland's article that others here might enjoy:

For Lotto 6/42, P(MG = 1) = 0.56 is the probability of a selection containing tw... [ More ]

Reply #18

dr san — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 11:43:17 GMT

link=http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/secure/v7n3/boland.cfm#ziemba

Reply #17

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 05:21:00 GMT

Your weighting scheme using RAND() should provide you with sets more or less congruous with those in your input. Unfortunately, I suspect your reason for wanting to do this is firmly rooted in a belief in the Gambler's Fallacy. Unless the objects being selected are clearly not equal in weight, shape, or size, the value of your output will be of lttle or no value.

Reply #16

SergeM — Fri, 08 Feb 2013 02:29:55 GMT

Reply #15

LottoBoner — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 17:22:36 GMT

Main Entry:1ran dom Pronunciation:*ran-d*m Function:noun Etymology:Middle English, succession, surge, from Anglo-French randun, from Old French randir to run, of Germanic origin; akin to Old High German rinnan to run more at RUN Date:1561

: a haphazard course at random : without definite aim, direction, rule, or method *subjects chosen at random*

Main Entry:random walk Function:noun Date:1905

: a process (as Brownian motion or genetic drift) consisting of a sequence of steps (as movem... [ More ]

Reply #14

SergeM — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 16:05:23 GMT

There is no good random generated by computers following articles on Internet. If true would be the random from random.org, then I would want to play big cash money against it. Maybe there are a few patents that generate better random results, but then again, what is random? It surely doesn't have to follow any mathematical rule. That is what it is.

Reply #13

savagegoose — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 15:21:30 GMT

im not sure the return on $ is accurate. when you toggle between power play and not, it doubles the return on dollars. where as it should be based on actual results.

Reply #12

dr san — Thu, 07 Feb 2013 13:10:48 GMT

Random sampling

Referring to a simple Lottery 1 of 5 . Suppose the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, dropped to 20 circulations with frequencies of 2, 2, 4, 8, 4. To create a table that presents the data in a usable form.

_ N _ _ F _ _ RF _ _ _ CRF

1 2 0.10 0.10

2 2 0.10 0.20

3 0.20 0.40 4

0.80 0.40 8 4

4 5 1.00 0.20

How can you choose the numbers to select the number of probability is directly proportional to its frequency of occurrence in history (or, equivalent, is equal to its r... [ More ]

Reply #11

jimmy4164 — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 05:47:21 GMT

kenn,

This site provides wheels which you can navigate to from the Home page left panel, Lottery Wheels. Not sure if it has what you're looking for, but check it out.

http://www.Random.org definitely lets you generate Random sets for the KS Cash game. It's what I would use to play it if I didn't like the KS RNG.

On the Powerplay, I think the 4X incentive for a 4+1 hit is even more reason to use it.

--Jimmy4164

Reply #10

wordsmith — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 22:37:02 GMT

Hi jimmy,

i'm new to the forum and am actually looking for a wheel that allows for the difference in the number pools,

that is KS Cash has two pools, the set of five numbers is drawn from a pool of 32 numbers, the Cash Ball is

drawn from a pool of 25 numbers, however the Dimitrov system of 11 numbers (which produces five games)

does not take in consideration the two different pools...

Jimmy as to your mention of he powerplay, it does make sense to spend the extra dollar becau... [ More ]

Reply #9

jimmy4164 — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 06:24:00 GMT

Me too

Reply #8

jimmy4164 — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 06:22:31 GMT

I think so too, but I guess their research indicates they sell more tickets with the giant pots. Every time I decide to play my state's 5/43 Lotto only, the PB or MM goes out the roof, and I give in, and buy in

Reply #7

weshar75 — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 04:24:08 GMT

I powerplay my tickets so I would like to hit the $2 million prize this year please!-weshar75

Reply #6

Cupcake10 — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 03:00:51 GMT

I think it's bull. The odds are really against you. I think it would be better if more people won a million than half a billion.

Reply #5

jimmy4164 — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 00:16:47 GMT

Coin Toss,

Incredible! Isn't it?

I got lucky last night after only letting it run a couple of hours and hit a 5+0. Set to Powerplay, the $2M hit still only pushed the ROI to about $0.90. Without the Powerplay, it was significantly less. Which brings me to my reason for this thread:

Obviousely, if you hit a 5+0 or 5+1 within your lifetime you're going to be ahead of the game, but is the higher ROI with Powerplay (without a Jackpot) worth the tradeoff of having less chances at the big on... [ More ]

Reply #4

Coin Toss — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 06:06:57 GMT

Good find jimmy4164. Aloing with the Powerplay info this should be drilled into every player's mind, 2 tickets per week:

How often, on average, you can expect to win each prize when playing the real lottery.

Win Frequency Calculator

Match Odds Average Win Frequency

PB 1 in 55 Once every 28 weeks

1+1 1 in 111 Once every 1 year and 4 weeks

2+1 1 in 706 Once every 6 years and 41 weeks

3 1 in 360 Once every 3 years and 24 weeks

3+1 1 in 12,245 Once every 117 years... [ More ]

Reply #3

SergeM — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 00:39:13 GMT

I don't play Euromillions and I saw the simulations. It looks pretty nice.

I play the local Lotto twice a week, 1 to 6 combinations.

Reply #2

jimmy4164 — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 23:32:53 GMT

No, the credits are at the end of the Q A section.

Note the answer to the question about expectations for a Jackpot hit. They also have simulations for the UK and EU big games too.

Do you play the Powerplay

Reply #1

SergeM — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:04:31 GMT

Did you program it

The Powerplay Option

jimmy4164 — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 17:37:22 GMT

I'm sure the pros and cons of the Powerplay Option have been discussed here before, but I missed it. Regardless, this Powerball Simulator might give some people another way to look at it. It seems to support spending the extra $ for the Powerplay, unless your only interest is in hitting the 2 biggest prizes. The 4X incentive of the 4 + PB payout encourages me to start shelling out $3 instead of $2.

What do you think?

http://www.justwebware.com/powerball/powerball.html

--Jimmy4164