https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174 Lottery Post Forum Topic: Rollover/Number of Winner Probabilities for a 600M annuity jackpot. en-us Lottery Post RSS Generator https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174/3079879 https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174/3079879 Thu, 23 May 2013 20:36:33 GMT ressuccess Someone in Florida won the Powerball Jackpot estimated at $590.5 million.

]]> ressuccess https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174/3069584 https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174/3069584 Fri, 17 May 2013 21:17:17 GMT Prob988 Powerplay does not enter into the jackpot calculation and is irrelevant to the Poisson calculation.

The sales calculation is based on the advertised cash values of this, and the previous draw, and is obviously an approximation, since the lottery often underestimates the sales.

Powerplay, which is always a bad bet when one measures the expectation value, applies to lower level prizes only, and does not affect the probability of winners of jackpot prizes..

]]> Prob988 https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174/3069521 https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174/3069521 Fri, 17 May 2013 20:32:15 GMT Toronto Based on empirical data, your projected sales is off. $563,131,974 + $26,218,974 from Powerplay was the sales from the November drawing and that was less than this PB jackpot

Mega in 2012 was $651,915,940 for their $600M+ drawing

]]> Toronto https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174 https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/261174 Fri, 17 May 2013 20:25:55 GMT Prob988 The Powerball now has an annuity jackpot of 600M, with a cash value of 377M, which suggests that the lottery expects to sell 457.4M dollars worth of tickets, with half that number being the actual tickets sold on this drawing.

The randomized Poisson probabilities for numbers of winners at this sales level, with 0 representing a rollover is as follows:

k, number of winners p(m,k)

0 27.11%

1 35.39%

2 23.09%

3 10.05%

4 3.28%

5 0.86%

6 0.19%

7 0.03

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