Streaks and the " HOT HAND "-article from Ny times

Reply #10

jimmy4164 — Mon, 30 Jun 2014 18:59:10 GMT

LuckyMick,

I do not know what Dr. Wilke is doing, but i have many years of experience in seeing hot hands play.

I'm sure his statistical analyses assumes the average number of consecutive scoring shots expected from an NBA Superstar will exceed the number expected from grade schoolers, and then proceeds from there. Your observations are common, as Dr. Wilke points out, so you're not alone and should dig deeper into his and others' research. However...

In lotto i can go 2 weeks... [ More ]

Reply #9

LuckyMick — Mon, 30 Jun 2014 13:03:23 GMT

As a former HS and Collegiate Athlete I can say there is such a thing as a hot hand and streaks in baseball are well known. Athletes will tell you that they are in a groove things come much easier without as much effort. Everything is a chance, but the fact that some are so much more obviously streaky, while others are more consistent can be plain seen.

The article tries to separate several things that are really combined to make a streak and therefore not separate at all! Psychology ha... [ More ]

Reply #8

jimmy4164 — Mon, 30 Jun 2014 05:31:36 GMT

Win D,

These researchers didn't forget...

Our ancestors were constantly searching for food, either gathering plants or hunting animals. As they searched, they had to continually decide where to look next. The wrong choice could mean starvation. Dr. Wilke argues that this threat led our ancestors to evolve some rules of thumb based on the fact that animals and plants aren't scattered randomly across a landscape. Instead, they can be found in clumps. That meant that if our ancestors pi... [ More ]

Reply #7

WIN D — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 20:00:59 GMT

Mankind has always seen patterns that were not there. Yes, but Science forgets to mention the other part of these old type stories.

Always remember .... Man has always seen patterns that really were there as well !

Win d

That's the part that kills ya! LOL

That's also the part that takes Mankind forward.

Reply #6

Teddi — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 19:46:04 GMT

I think when so many jackpot winners talk about buying their winning tickets on a hunch, I can understand why they would discount scientific evidence. Nothing about playing the lottery is logical.

Reply #5

jimmy4164 — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 18:19:23 GMT

Igamble,

Thanks for posting that. Lottery players need an injection of science once in a while. Unfortunately, there are many here who will reject this research because their need to believe otherwise is just too strong.

--Jimmy4164

P.S. Thanks LottoMetro for your contribution.

Reply #4

LottoMetro — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 18:12:00 GMT

Interesting article. It was briefly touched on, but monkeys also believe in winning streaks (another study performed by the same people in your article).

Over at the Ask a Mathematician / Ask a Physicist blog, they put together a short post addressing the confusion surrounding the likelihood of hot/cold streaks.

You can read it here.

Reply #3

Teddi — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 18:00:48 GMT

I just watched a documentary on the stock market regarding something similar. The argument was that analysts and laypeople alike invested based on past performance and not on facts. If a stock had a good history, people continued to buy it even when facts indicated that the stock could not continue to do so. The economists felt that this emotional investing was what created bubbles and why so many people get caught when that bubble bursts.

Your article helps explain why we do that and why I

Reply #2

Igamble — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 16:19:07 GMT

Thanks Tialuvslotto ! I like your simple and concise explanantion .

Reply #1

Tialuvslotto — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 11:25:45 GMT

Interesting article, Igamble.

Sometimes it is rational to expect streaks, sometimes not. You have to know the odds.

For example, in Pick3, if you get zero digits repeating from the last game the odds of it happening again in the next game are 44%. So you tend to see streaks of 2 or 3 in a row.

OTOH, for 2 digits repeating from the last game, the odds of another 2 digit repeat are only 14%, so streaks are rare.

So, if you know the odds you won't be expecting streaks when they are less... [ More ]

Streaks and the " HOT HAND "-article from Ny times

Igamble — Sun, 29 Jun 2014 03:57:23 GMT

SCIENCE

That s So Random: Why We Persist in Seeing Streaks

JUNE 26, 2014

Photo

N.B.A. legend Walt Frazier, right, has been vocal about the powers of hot hand.CreditDave Pickoff/Associated Press Continue reading the main story

Continue reading the main story

Carl Zimmer

MATTER

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From time to time, athletes get on a streak. Suddenly, the basketball goes through the net every time, or a batter gets a