Will we ever see a double win?

Reply #46

DamGod — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 14:58:01 GMT

I think same set of numbers were drawn twice in a month once in a lottery game in Israel

Reply #45

RJOh — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 12:51:25 GMT

And too when I play the lotteries I try to play combinations that are most likely to be drawn of which there are many and avoid those most likely not to be drawn of which there are few and yet I've never won a jackpot. Came within one number twice in twenty years but like most games close doesn't count for much.

Reply #44

LottoMetro — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 06:33:42 GMT

Off the top of my head, Bulgaria in 2009. But the odds of it happening for that game were only like 1 in 4.2 million and it took 52 years.

Reply #43

Coin Toss — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 06:24:01 GMT

RJOh,

Yeah...for all the theories about the possibility of identical back to back drawings how often has it happened, if ever

Reply #42

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 05:44:45 GMT

True, after 50 consecutive reds on Roulette, the 51st spin has a 50/50 chance of red or black, but what would you bet on?

I would flip a coin.

Some of the links in here are helpful with this question.

Reply #41

RJOh — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 05:01:22 GMT

What are the chances of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row in the UK national lottery? About 1 in 200,000,000,000,000 (200 million million). Not great odds so you would have to be a real mug to choose last week's numbers again.... Well perhaps, but no more of a mug than if you chose any other six numbers. It's just another case of the gambler's fallacy, once a given set of numbers has already come up the chances of those numbers coming up again are no better or worse than any other se... [ More ]

Reply #40

Coin Toss — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 04:39:04 GMT

This is from book called50 Philosophy Ideas You Really Need to Know by Ben Dupre.

Ironically it's in the chapter titled the Gambler's Fallacy!

Here goes:

If you're in a lottery start digging.....

What are the chances of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row in the UK national lottery? About 1 in 200,000,000,000,000 (200 million million). Not great odds so you would have to be a real mug to choose last week's numbers again.... Well perhaps, but no more of a mug tha... [ More ]

Reply #39

onlymoney — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 03:08:50 GMT

We agree on the PB and MM, but I guess you and I disagree on your second sentence.

I like agreeing more than not, but life isn't perfect.

Reply #38

Stack47 — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 03:02:58 GMT

It's a fact that there are professional gamblers. What do they know that the 97% don't? What does Peter St. Pierre know that we don't?

For starters they know enough not to believe they will win PB and MM jackpots back to back. And I really doubt many professional gamblers make their living exclusively playing lottery games.

Reply #37

onlymoney — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 02:58:39 GMT

The Balance,

Reply #36

onlymoney — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 02:35:38 GMT

That's your opinion and the person who wrote the Gambler's Fallacy , not mine. Life is much too fluid to create boundries.

The reason most don't win is because it takes discipline, a hefty bankroll, and a little luck. But that luck won't show it's head unless the first two criteria are met. (exception to that rule is TOTAL luck, like a PB or MM JP winner for no apparent reason).

It's a fact that there are professional gamblers. What do they know that the 97% don't?

What does Peter St.... [ More ]

Reply #35

LottoMetro — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 02:22:44 GMT

What you describe is a perfect example of the Gambler's fallacy. If it worked, everyone would simply sit out until the opportune moment to jump in and bet. And betting systems can't work if you don't have an edge in the first place.

Reply #34

onlymoney — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 02:15:34 GMT

But if you ask what the probability of flipping a coin heads is for the next flip only, no matter what occurred previously, the answer is 1/2.

I disagree. Whether the successions occur consecutively, or with skips of days, weeks months or years apart, at the end of the day, they're still piling up for a lack of a better term. True, after 50 consecutive reds on Roulette, the 51st spin has a 50/50 chance of red or black, but what would you bet on?

There's a tendency for everything in l... [ More ]

Reply #33

Poo Nanny — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 02:04:50 GMT

I have no idea. Not likely to happen but it could happen. The odds are probably close to winning back to back jackpots.

Reply #32

Stack47 — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 01:01:14 GMT

When you ask about the probability of winning two games, back to back, BEFORE either are drawn, the odds get extremely high.

The odds depend on how many tickets are bought and if 1000 of the total combinations are purchased in each game the odds are reduced to about 4,515,000,000,000 to 1.

Reply #31

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 00:51:09 GMT

Exactly!

In a subtle way, the tendency of humans to make this mistake is close to the crux of Innumeracy.

Reply #30

Stack47 — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 00:47:24 GMT

What are the odds against the same five numbers and the same bonus number drawn back to back?

I never got an answer from Poo Nanny, but never clarified that when I explained why the calculations are different. I believe the odds of having jackpot winning tickets in the next two drawings is different than the odds against consecutive jackpots in any two drawings in the infinite future.

Reply #29

LottoMetro — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 00:28:16 GMT

Okay I think I get what you're saying.

If someone buys a PB ticket, the odds of them hitting the jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510 regardless whether they also bought a MM ticket and won/lost. Yet the odds of hitting PB given that you also hit MM if you only buy 1 ticket each (as you say, starting now) would be 1 in 45.4 quadrillion. It's almost paradoxical.

I've seen retrospective oohs and aahs here over people who had multiple big hits spread over years.

Similar to how the experts quote Gi... [ More ]

Reply #28

jimmy4164 — Fri, 08 Aug 2014 00:01:39 GMT

I'm surprised you don't see my point. Read your reply again. The problem here is semantic. Haven't you noticed how often people tend to multiply the probabilities of two independent events together and gasping at the large number, when the 2nd event was not predicted in advance? I've seen retrospective oohs and aahs here over people who had multiple big hits spread over years. It's easier to see flipping a coin. If your question is what is the probability of flipping a fair coin heads two times... [ More ]

Reply #27

LottoMetro — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 21:07:35 GMT

Help me out here and explain the difference.

Even if the probability of winning yesterday's jackpot is 1.0, the probability that you win today's jackpot too is conditional on the fact that you won yesterday's jackpot. It doesn't matter that you win after; the probability is the same as if you win at the same time.

Example, if MM and PB draws at the exact same time, there is no difference in probability compared to if they draw 5 minutes between one another or a day after one another becau... [ More ]

Reply #26

jimmy4164 — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 20:43:47 GMT

I agree. When you ask about the probability of winning two games, back to back, BEFORE either are drawn, the odds get extremely high. However, just be sure to remember that this differs from the case where someone asks, as an afterthought, AFTER they have won yesterdays jackpot, What is the probability of winning today's jackpot? The formula is the same, P(winning yesterday's jackpot) Multiplied By P(winning today's jackpot). The difference here is that the probability of winning yesterday's jac... [ More ]

Reply #25

Stack47 — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 19:07:50 GMT

You're correct and I should be more clear in that I was talking about the same results repeating. Maybe someone has the statistic of how many times PB and MM had jackpot winners in consecutive drawings.

Reply #24

RJOh — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 15:23:07 GMT

You know Jimmy, you and I have always agreed on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes, but I disagree when you say no strategy will prevail when using a system in the p-3.

When it comes to agreeing on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes it's hard for anyone to disagree because the odds of winning says the same thing. As far as I know, no one who claims to have won their first JP with a strategy or system such as Brad Duke has ever won a secon... [ More ]

Reply #23

onlymoney — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 13:59:58 GMT

You know Jimmy, you and I have always agreed on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes, but I disagree when you say no strategy will prevail when using a system in the p-3.

Using a random number generator is not the same as picking personal numbers based on a whole host of variables that can be taken advantage of when making selections.

Peter St. Pierre has been doing it for over five years now making an average of 70 grand a year playing the p-3 and p-4 in the N.H.... [ More ]

Reply #22

jimmy4164 — Thu, 07 Aug 2014 05:58:57 GMT

I had hoped you would have noticed that that strategy resulted in 14 straight hits over the 33 years, approximately what you would have expected by buying quick picks. Read further into the thread and note what happened when the winning draw from (2) days ago was consistently bet on. It might just occur to you that it doesn't really matter what strategy or system you use - your winnings will average out to be approximately the same no matter what you do. Also read the opening post of the thread... [ More ]

Reply #21

LottoMetro — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:27:11 GMT

That's irrelevant.....both games are independent events; thus, under the Multiplicative Rule, you simply multiple the odds of winning for each game by the other.

Assuming one ticket in each game, the odds of winning the jackpot on both are 1 in 45,363,763,000,000,000.

See http://www.mathwords.com/m/multiplication_rule.htm.

Reply #20

Stack47 — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:19:56 GMT

Those are the same odds I came up with, but then I realized there are several million MM results impossible for PB to match. MM has 12,253,004 five number outcomes PB can't match and including the bonus numbers, there are only 75,095,790 combos that are in both games. Of the last PB 100 drawing, a bonus number over 15 was drawn 61 times so there was a 1 in 45.4 quadrillion chance in only about 40% of the drawings.

If they keep on drawing both games, eventually it will happen, but I wouldn't b... [ More ]

Reply #19

onlymoney — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 18:22:45 GMT

Wow, talk about strange occurrences lately. I guess I spoke too soon. lol

Florida,

Wed, Aug 6, 2014 0-2-5 4-1-5-4

Tue, Aug 5, 2014 2-3-3 0-2-5

Reply #18

onlymoney — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 16:23:44 GMT

I'd have to say that would be one of the worst strategies in p-3.

Reply #17

jimmy4164 — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 08:31:46 GMT

This isn't for MM or PB, but if you're curious to see what happened when a Hypothetical player hoping for double wins played Yesterday's Winner every day straight in a Pick-3 game for 33 years,

Click Here...

Reply #16

onlymoney — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 01:49:35 GMT

But I don't play, so I'm not a sucker. The only thing I play is the p-3 and maybe once a month I'll play a Florida Fantasy Five for skits and giggles.

Actually I'm really a nice guy in real life. What other life are you talking about? This is the only real life I'm aware of.

Reply #15

Stack47 — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 01:40:11 GMT

If we all had enough time, we would all win at least one of the jackpots and possibly several. Each games has only 104 drawings a year and even with 208 combined drawings, plan on playing 81,730 years just to have a 10% chance. What are the odds against the same five numbers and the same bonus number drawn back to back

Reply #14

sandia — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 22:57:34 GMT

The chance of that happening might be steep but, I don't think it will be impossible, nearly impossibly maybe but, not impossible.

Reply #13

Poo Nanny — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 22:43:29 GMT

You are just as much a sucker for playing as I am. Frankly, I am sure you are a douche in real life.

Reply #12

Poo Nanny — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 22:41:25 GMT

Well I know the odds of winning one jackpot but not two back to back. Anything can happen, that's why I think it will happen at some point if the lotto is played long enough.

Reply #11

RJOh — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 20:34:35 GMT

They'll never have a better chance if they can't do it doing their lifetime.

Reply #10

onlymoney — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 16:12:09 GMT

I CAN imagine what the odds are. This thread is proof positive of how uninformed the majority of the public is regarding the astronomical odds against them winning.

I wonder what the odds are in the uninformed masses getting a clue in my lifetime. I'd estimate it would be in the hundreds of trillions.

Suckers

Reply #9

Stack47 — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:57:08 GMT

If a players buys one ticket in each game, the odds of winning something in both games is 457 to 1. Sometimes I think this type of thread is started to see how creedy people can be.

Reply #8

Stack47 — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:42:04 GMT

If you can't imagine the odds or even do the math, why do you think it will happen

Reply #7

RJOh — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:31:21 GMT

Just do the math, (the odds of winning Magamillions) x (the odds of winning PowerBall) x (the odds of winning both on a specifics day).

Reply #6

Coin Toss — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:22:15 GMT

If it ever does happen people will be yelling FIXED

Reply #5

LottoMetro — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 12:15:33 GMT

Assuming one ticket each, the odds are about 1 in 45.4 quadrillion. So although possible, it is extremely unlikely to happen. Fun to think about it though

Reply #4

sully16 — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 11:57:49 GMT

We've seen stranger things in the world of lottery.

Reply #3

mrcraft — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 06:34:29 GMT

Most likely not. I doubt we'll see anyone win both jackpots in their lifetime, let alone back-to-back.

Reply #2

ThatScaryChick — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 06:06:34 GMT

It could happen but I think it's highly unlikely.

Reply #1

noise-gate — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 00:50:08 GMT

I hope you pull it off as well Rorschach.

Will we ever see a double win?

Poo Nanny — Mon, 04 Aug 2014 23:59:20 GMT

I can't imagine what the odds might be, but do you ever think we will see anyone pull of a mega million win and then on the next draw hit the powerball? Or vice versa? I say it has to happen at some point and I want to be the lucky one to do it.