Are Mega Millions sales really that bad now?

Reply #55

Stack47 — Fri, 07 Nov 2014 03:07:09 GMT

You're right, it looks like I included 8 drawings from the previous run.

Sales are about the same since the matrix change a year ago and my point is all things being equal , sales are about the same. It looks like overall, players are looking at both PB and MM jackpots differently because the last MM $321 million jackpot had slightly less sales than a $241 million jackpot in early 2012.

PB lowered their odds, but doubled the price of a ticket. And while PB players spent $60 million on a $2... [ More ]

Reply #54

alexnt55 — Fri, 07 Nov 2014 02:11:18 GMT

Stack you are right about that since the matrix changed there is not that much of a difference in ticket sales. But for the early 2012 run you are getting your numbers mixed up on that one. You said for the 18th drawing on that run there was a $94 million jackpot which had sales of $28 million. The jackpot was hit after 18 rollovers and on the 18th draw the Jack pot was for $363 million and the ticket sales were for over $190 million. It was the 10th drawing on that run where the jackpot was $94... [ More ]

Reply #53

alexnt55 — Fri, 07 Nov 2014 01:17:50 GMT

Ticket sales are quite a bit smaller then they were just as recently as 2012. The MM jackpot that was hit Tuesday for around 321 million was the result of 20 rollovers. Ticket sales for the drawing with an advertised JP of 321 million were a little more then $75 million. The 3/30/2012 jackpot of $640 million was hit after 18 rollovers. In 2012 there had been 14 rollovers and the JP was at 200 million and for that drawing there were over 66 million in ticket sales for that drawing. The past run h... [ More ]

Reply #52

Stack47 — Mon, 03 Nov 2014 18:46:27 GMT

I already compared three jackpot runs since the game changed and there was no significant difference so monthly sales is the only sales figure left to compare. The real problem here is as usual you're arguing for the sake of arguing presenting zero facts showing that MM sales are really that bad now and giving an accurate comparison.

The current Mega Millions prize is on it's 18th draw and about two years ago, that amount of draws with no winner would have most likely had a billion dollar pri... [ More ]

Reply #51

KY Floyd — Mon, 03 Nov 2014 16:04:17 GMT

so monthly comparisons is all there is

Are you actually telling us that your ability to reason tells you that it's valid to compare sales for 2 months without regard to what the jackpots were

Reply #50

rcbbuckeye — Mon, 03 Nov 2014 01:08:44 GMT

LOL. If I'm standing in line to buy my tics, it's because the person in front of me is buying cigs, or sending money by Western Union.

Reply #49

RJOh — Sun, 02 Nov 2014 23:09:40 GMT

Standing in line to buy a MM or PB ticket ended for me when those games came to my state. There aren't many states any more where one has to drive to a neighboring state to buy a ticket so there aren't any lines any more.

Reply #48

zinniagirl — Sun, 02 Nov 2014 22:54:46 GMT

For those who think no one us playing, they dont hAve to stand in the lines I stand in just for one ticket.

Reply #47

Stack47 — Sun, 02 Nov 2014 20:20:12 GMT

And yet sales for September 2014 were about $192 million. Do you think that in only 30 days people just suddenly decided MM is a better product than it was based on the general attributes of the game, or do you suppose there might be a specific reason?

The last matrix change was just a year ago so monthly comparisons is all there is. And I already mentioned possible reasons why sales in one month were $91 million more than the previous month. Do have any actual sales statistics proving MM sa... [ More ]

Reply #46

KY Floyd — Fri, 31 Oct 2014 17:00:18 GMT

Where did you find those far more potential players

I found most of them in the 23 states that didn't sell MM until January 2010. You know that doubling the number of states selling tickets increases the number of potential players, right? For the 10 starting jackpots before those states were added sales totaled about $154 million. The 10 starting jackpots immediately after adding those states had sales of about $183 million. The most recent 10 starting jackpots have racked up sales of about... [ More ]

Reply #45

zinniagirl — Thu, 30 Oct 2014 14:21:43 GMT

If the news ,ecia gets in on the act, extra people pkays which generates the 400+ jackpots overnight. It's not people aren't playing, it's advertising to drawin those 'this is my first time playing' winners.

Reply #44

Toronto — Wed, 29 Oct 2014 20:43:37 GMT

Thank you. That's all folks.

A headline jackpot is what people see, sales should be comparable (or less, given people know of worse odds). I've played in 11 states; billboards, sides of busses, window LEDs, and the terminals only ever gave headline number. It doesn't matter that there was a matrix change (aside from what I mentioned about worse odds leading to spend less). If increased playing population and increased headline due to annuity schedule show lower sales for comparable levels, th... [ More ]

Reply #43

Stack47 — Wed, 29 Oct 2014 20:16:48 GMT

The sensible comparison, and what the OP appears to be asking, is whether or not more recent changes have resulted in slower sales.

It says really that bad now which to me means terrible overall sale compared to another period of time. Current sales, October 2014 are $281.59 million compared to $167.1 million in October 2013 and $142.6 million in 2012. When someone asked how bad , we should ask compared to what because the matrix change is just one-year-old. And now MM Friday sales are compe... [ More ]

Reply #42

KY Floyd — Wed, 29 Oct 2014 17:48:58 GMT

If the subject isn't clear enough, the discussion is about whether or not MM sales are worse than they used to be. Changes to the game may explain why sales are different, but they're irrelevant to whether or not there is a difference. Offering tickets to 50 or 100% more potential customers should increase sales regardless of the quality of the product, so sales should obviously be higher than they were when far fewer states sold the game. If nothing else resulted in less player interest in buyi... [ More ]

Reply #41

Stack47 — Tue, 28 Oct 2014 23:47:03 GMT

I though I was clear when I said There were many MM changes in just the last 3 years like new states added, matrix changes, PB competition, etc., but apparently you missed it. Why nit pik when it's comparing apples to oranges?

The figures I used for comparison were after the last matrix change. Ten years ago ticket sales on a $149 million jackpot were about the same as last Friday's $226 million jackpot. Sales in 2004 were around $10 million for the starting $10 million jackpot compared to $1... [ More ]

Reply #40

KY Floyd — Tue, 28 Oct 2014 16:24:49 GMT

If the advertised jackpots are really growing about the same as in the past that's clear proof that average sales are lower than they used to be. Changing the annuity schedule resulted in a significant increase in the advertised jackpot relative to sales, and the actual cash value is now significantly lower for any given amount.

Reply #39

KY Floyd — Tue, 28 Oct 2014 16:23:08 GMT

This just tells us that you've got no clue what random means. Random means that nothing is skewing the results that are determined by probability, not that probability doesn't matter

Unless you think that flipping a coin 100 times shouldn't result in about 50 heads and 50 tails, how can you think that something with a 10% chance of happening isn't random because it actually happens about 10% of the time

Reply #38

Coin Toss — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 05:12:49 GMT

Oh, aren't you just all pc. Interesting since you called the PB FAQ page a 'liberal spin'.

Gee, I thought a hunyak was someone of Eastern European ancestry living in Wisconsin, silly me. That's what the cheese heads in the Army called each other. Guess they weren't as touchy.

I'm not stalking you, put your ego in park.

Reply #37

pickone4me — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 04:49:47 GMT

Well, cointoss, hunyak is a derogatory term, since you had to resort to that level....So any argument you have just went up in smoke. You and a few others here need to stop stalking me from topic to topic, it is getting old.

Reply #36

Stack47 — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 02:47:01 GMT

I understand there is a $1 million secondary prize and some players will play every drawing just for it, but the odds of winning it are over 18 million to win and the probability of multiple prizes in one drawing depends on ticket sales. To get a 50% chance (over half of the possible combos), means a one drawing sales of $130 Million. It's easy to assume a $230 million jackpot might have enough in sales to get a 50% chance, but it's usually not even close and most of us are just contributing to... [ More ]

Reply #35

PrinceRene — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 01:10:31 GMT

a hunyak

Reply #34

RJOh — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 00:57:25 GMT

I prefer to look at the growth of the cash values rather than jackpots alone because jackpots can vary with interest rates and their cash values.

Reply #33

bigbear29 — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 00:25:55 GMT

I would agree but, if it's only one winning ticket cash 153.5, I hope the jackpot is hit on Tuesday.

Reply #32

Coin Toss — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 23:48:08 GMT

pickone4me.

Well since your opinion overrides facts all that rcbuckeye said a few posts above is oh so true.

Also, it's still quite entertaining that some hunyak from Wisconsin is so jealous of California winning.

Maybe you should go to Fond du Lac and bug off.

Reply #31

weshar75 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 22:56:49 GMT

I would like to see this jackpot run go into the $300 million range at least. Maybe roll into november past halloween's drawing because big jackpots are fun to play for especially if I win a prize.-weshar75

Reply #30

Stack47 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 22:20:42 GMT

The jackpots do grow very slow, but on average about the same as in the past. There were many MM changes in just the last 3 years like new states added, matrix changes, PB competition, etc. so the only real expectations is the average sales on at certain levels regardless of how many drawing it takes to get there.

Reply #29

Stack47 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 21:52:40 GMT

You're only looking at one drawing here or there.

I clearly compared the only three runs with jackpots over $200 million since the last matrix change.

The sales at the start of a run are much lower even with more states.

Did you miss the memo saying there are now a possible 258,890,850 outcomes, sales for Friday were 44 million, about a 17% of chance of a winner, and the numbers on the tickets are only valid for the day of that drawing?

While a portion of the amount of sales is ap... [ More ]

Reply #28

helpmewin — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 20:41:47 GMT

Reply #27

PrinceRene — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 20:15:26 GMT

More tickets sold in one state means that state has a greater chance of winning. But no matter what state you live in, with one ticket, your odds of winning Mega Millions by matching 5 numbers plus the Mega number is the same as everyone else, 1 in 258,890,850. A simple concept but some people just can't grasp it.

Reply #26

hearsetrax — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 18:40:18 GMT

remember to count your few and many blessings and put your money down like every other dreamer

Reply #25

Poo Nanny — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 17:27:40 GMT

Well I guess I am wrong. No conspiracy theory from me. It just seems like the Jackpots are growing slower to me. One day I will get lucky and hit one...I hope before I am 80 and can't enjoy it as much

Reply #24

pickone4me — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 16:31:42 GMT

Alright, listen up!

Here is part of the FAQ

Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticket or where a ticket is purchased.

If the defined group buys 10% of the tickets, then they will win 10% of the prizes - on average and over a reasonable period of time.

Then it is not truely random.

Commonsense, and facts, don't apply to lottery games.

The more times the same state, or states win, a small minority of people are going to notice, and wonder WTF is going... [ More ]

Reply #23

Toronto — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 16:04:48 GMT

Once again, selecting data (2 data points) to support your argument. All anyone has to look at is the rest of the year, which you seemingly failed to draw attention to, or 2013 and 2012. On top of that, your statement doesn't even disprove what I am saying.

Reply #22

Romancandle — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 15:58:29 GMT

I see South Dakota got in on some action last night- one # away from taking it all...

Now how did that happen? Such a small population in that state... the lotto folks must be listening to you... reprogramming the machine world

It's inevitable Mr. Pickone4me...

Reply #21

Theox- — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 15:57:00 GMT

I don't understand everyone screaming conspiracy. Logic would dictate that more players being in an area would cause more winners to be in that area. The lottery is random, California just has more players than other states do.

Reply #20

rcbbuckeye — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 15:51:20 GMT

CT.....

Again, you are letting facts get in the way of lack of common sense. You are pi$$ing up a rope trying to convince pickmynose or the others that higher populations have more winning tics. If they don't believe the PB's website, they are simply too closed minded. Actually calling PB FAQ page liberal garbage tells you everything you need to know. LOL.

I spit coffee out in laughter this morning when I read jjprince's comment that California has their cheat codes ready.

Really... [ More ]

Reply #19

Romancandle — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 15:46:09 GMT

Ahhh... thanks for posting some facts to put this back in perspective.

It still feels like MM grows too slowly draw to draw, I don't know why, but it just does for me.

Reply #18

pickone4me — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 15:28:22 GMT

No, I am not envious...The powerball website FAQ page is garbage, it is just liberal spin to cover for those states that win too often...I have read that page way back ago, I take it with a grain of salt!

Now bug off, already

Reply #17

Coin Toss — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 15:13:23 GMT

Alright then, NY or Florida just to hear you whine some more.

If you don't even play the game why are so envious of California?

This is from the Powerball website FAQ page (also applies to MM), read on:

HOW COME THE ONLY JACKPOT WINNERS ARE FROM THE [EAST - WEST - NORTH - SOUTH - CITIES - RURAL AREAS]?

HOW COME ONLY [WHITE, BLACK, TALL, SKINNY, YOUNG, OLD] PEOPLE WIN?

Powerball is a random game that knows nothing about who buys a ticket or where a ticket is purch... [ More ]

Reply #16

pickone4me — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 12:51:00 GMT

Sorry dude, that state has had more then enough wins, time for other states to win ( no I don't mean mine, I don't play the MM or PB just to clarify that again

Reply #15

Stack47 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 08:16:47 GMT

When someone asked if Mega Millions sales are really bad and then gives false information, I decided to check the numbers. I agree with you that how much is bet on jackpots especially under $300 million is useless information, but apparently that's all they have to talk about.

Reply #14

Stack47 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 08:08:48 GMT

You really ought to look at the sale figures before saying The sales at the start of a run are much lower even with more states . The sales at the start of this right are HIGHER than the last two runs. Where are you getting your figures

Reply #13

Stack47 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 08:04:04 GMT

Lotto Report.

Reply #12

TinkerMazell — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 07:41:05 GMT

WOW! You guys really get into the statistics! I don't know how to do all that. I just buy a ticket every now and then. And I only buy ONE. I do invest in the megaplyer or power up. I don't care how much it is because I know any win would be awesome :)

If the jackpot is so high that it's all the talk on the news and at work and etc., then I make sure I don't miss buying at least one ticket. I'd rather not win if it's so high unless I have the option to remain anonymous. That's not an opti... [ More ]

Reply #11

Toronto — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 05:41:52 GMT

You're only looking at one drawing here or there. The sales at the start of a run are much lower even with more states.

Reply #10

Theox- — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 04:11:55 GMT

Stack47, where are you pulling those sales numbers from

Reply #9

Stack47 — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 03:06:20 GMT

Sales were $44,498,322 for last night compared to the 3/14/2014 sales of $43,702,292 for a $240 million jackpot. And is more than the $36,816,769 in sales for a $230 million jackpot on 11/29/2013. The $230 jackpot was increased to $270 million and the $230 jackpot went to $257 million. It sure looks to me like the sales for last night's $224 jackpot were HIGHER than larger jackpots and jackpot increases were about the same.

The current Mega Millions prize is on it's 18th draw and about two y... [ More ]

Reply #8

morning — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 01:32:31 GMT

I live in California. I need some of that luck, it seems the central valley and bay areas are winning the most. SoCal needs love.

Reply #7

jjtheprince — Sun, 26 Oct 2014 00:14:13 GMT

California has been losing on purpose. They've got their cheat codes ready and setting themselves up for the big one.

Reply #6

Romancandle — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 23:19:49 GMT

And.... PB beats the pants off of MM... Time for MM to go away... One game starting at 50M 4x per week with PB odds and Megaplier type payouts... Is it possible

Reply #5

RedStang — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 22:45:41 GMT

It takes a rare jackpot to spike sales. We haven't seen that in awhile.

Reply #4

pickone4me — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 22:04:50 GMT

Reply #3

pickone4me — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 22:04:21 GMT

Oddly enough I am really surprised that there was no jackpot winner friday night.

Reply #2

whiteballz — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 15:08:32 GMT

The $100 million jackpot mark was usually when casual lottery players jumped in and started buying tickets. $100 million jackpots were rare but now it seems like a $100 million jackpot happens every month. Powerball needs only 6 rollovers to hit the $100 million mark. So if you miss a $100 million jackpot, just wait about a month and you'll get another opportunity. There is no sense of urgency like before for casual players.

Now the jackpots need to be $250 mil or more to get the casual playe... [ More ]

Reply #1

bigbear29 — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 14:36:45 GMT

It could be all the above plus, may-be, people are getting tired of the same places winning. Ca. Had 4 second tier wins in a row. The wealth need to be spread out to other places to keep people interested. The new millionaire's club game started yesterday too, and if that is the case, people want more winners.

Are Mega Millions sales really that bad now?

Poo Nanny — Sat, 25 Oct 2014 13:21:13 GMT

What happened to the Mega Millions sales? Last nights draw the prize amount was 226 million and with no winner it only increased to 252 million. That seems low to me when compared to the past drawings. The current Mega Millions prize is on it's 18th draw and about two years ago, that amount of draws with no winner would have most likely had a billion dollar prize amount. Is it lottery fatigue or is it the new matrix that people quit playing as much