pick 3: You can control the probability distribution of your winnings

Reply #7

stribman — Thu, 31 Mar 2016 23:54:00 GMT

that's a lot of odds, makes me dizzy but if it works for you, I once used a 36 number box group not hard to figure out, there 36 boxed combinations using one number , not counting doubles. that way I pick one number to hit , play 36 or 18 bucks win 80 or 40 if number falls. I will do 0's for ya, so you understand.

012,013,014,015,016,017,018,019,

023,024,025,026,027,028,029,034

035,036,037,038,039,045,046,047

048,049,056,057,058,059,067,068

069,078,079,089,

Play those an 0 fall... [ More ]

Reply #6

adobea78 — Thu, 31 Mar 2016 22:43:12 GMT

Stats are facts, but the projected percentiles has lot of nuances. Focusing on percentiles may not be a good waging strategy, rather focus on 'bet option' , straight or box. a straight with a lead digit is 100 lines, with Front pair is 10 lines.

Reply #5

Wisconsin3054 — Thu, 10 Mar 2016 23:14:45 GMT

Ok so this question has been nagging at my mind and maybe somebody can help make sense of this for me.

I'm trying to figure out how often you can expect to hit over time playing one combo 6-way boxed. There's two ways I see it in my mind and each leads to a different result.

First, thinking out 1000 draws, since I have 6 of 1000 possible combos, I say I would expect to hit 6 times every 1000 draws. This amounts to 1 time every 166 and 2/3 draws. This number equals the odds per day, 1 in 16... [ More ]

Reply #4

Wisconsin3054 — Mon, 29 Feb 2016 19:07:15 GMT

Ok, finally have a chance to sit down with this.

How I'm using this is looking at what it takes to get to a 50% probability to win based on the number of plays. I think this number can tell you how often you can expect to win over time based on how many plays you are entering each drawing. The fun for me is winning. If I want to have that feeling on average once a month, then I need to play enough numbers per drawing to reach that.

Why 50%? 50% is essentially your coin flip. Over time, I c... [ More ]

Reply #3

Tucker Black — Sat, 27 Feb 2016 17:52:49 GMT

Thanks

Reply #2

Wisconsin3054 — Sat, 27 Feb 2016 17:28:33 GMT

I like this kinda stuff Tucker. I haven't had a chance to look real deeply at it yet but once I do I will post more about how I think we can use this kind of information.

Good stuff

Reply #1

Tucker Black — Fri, 26 Feb 2016 21:06:35 GMT

60 permutations in one drawing has a 36% chance of winning (half the 72% in the previous post) and a 64% chance of losing. Expected value is 0.36*83.33=$30, half of your $60 investment.

One permutation bet in the next 60 drawings:

win win amt probability

none $0.00 69.70%

once $83.33 25.24%

twice $166.66 4.48%

3 times $249.99 0.53%

4 times $333.32 0.0451%

5 times $416.65 0.0024%

6 times $499.98 0.0002%

This one is much better. Spend $60 trying t... [ More ]

pick 3: You can control the probability distribution of your winnings

Tucker Black — Fri, 26 Feb 2016 20:29:13 GMT

This is true for any game but here I will present results for pick 3. For one ticket and one drawing, it does not matter what numbers you pick. However, if you buy multiple tickets, you can adjust the probability of winning or losing based on whether you buy n tickets for one drawing or buy one ticket for each of the next n drawings. Let's say you bet $1 per ticket, bet on a permutation, and pick 3 digits that are different. The house edge is 50%, so the prize is $83.33.

Of the 1000 possible... [ More ]