Back testing systems

Reply #11

adobea78 — Thu, 14 Jul 2016 00:01:00 GMT

Thanks, very insightful

Reply #10

Wisconsin3054 — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 16:30:08 GMT

Very true

Reply #9

Wisconsin3054 — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 16:28:35 GMT

I don't expect the game to be any different looking back than looking forward. What I know is that the system could not have been designed just to fit the numbers coming in the future as those numbers haven't been picked yet. There is always the potential looking backwards that you could find a way that if you had just played it that way for the 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, whatever time period, I would have come out ahead. Its also too easy to say, oh it would have worked if i just had done the mi... [ More ]

Reply #8

RJOh — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 15:27:07 GMT

There's nothing wrong with back testing systems you find hard to believe have worked in the past but most reasonable systems probably have worked in the past and if played long enough will probably work again in the future. For example if some told me all six winning numbers in a 6/49 game are likely to be in a pool of 35 numbers or more 50% of the time I wouldn't back test it but if they said the same about a pool of 10 numbers I would.

Reply #7

bobby623 — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 15:04:04 GMT

I'm not sure I understand what 'back testing' means in the real world.

I have a workout and I know it works - now and then.

Sure, I could go back and second guess myself.

Oh, why did I choose 2 when 3 was the correct answer. Woe is me!!

Face it.

Lotteries are not predictable.

We can always make educated guesses about what might happen next, but we won't know what

the winning permutation is until it's known.

The 'randomizers' the lotteries use for the games are working as... [ More ]

Reply #6

Elliptic7 — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 14:08:51 GMT

Go ahead and test backward and or forward. The true test is with cold hard cash on the line

Reply #5

Sunglasses — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 13:52:30 GMT

Eventually your new system never worked in the past and just will work today and tomorrow the lottery shuts down. As you stopped for a pint in your local pub, you were too late for validating your ticket. You missed your chances, so you go back to the pub to have plenty of pints.

Reply #4

str8ca$hhomie — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 13:22:23 GMT

From a slightly different viewpoint if I may, destinycreation. Why should back testing be placed upon the prospective BUYER of the FREE SYSTEM. What else in the real world works exactly like that ??? If only we had rules and/or regulations in place that prevented someone (I won't mention any name) from posting twenty-seven (27) different free systems and then relying on other people to tell him whether his free system works or not ! Shouldn't it be the other way around. The individual wishing to... [ More ]

Reply #3

Tialuvslotto — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 10:26:39 GMT

Why would you expect the game to be any different tomorrow than it is today? The game is the game -- its the same everywhere. Its not tougher in Ohio than it is in Calfornia. It is exactly the same.

I agree with Wisconsin3054 that a 30 day period can display trends that may vary from the norm -- that is why 30 days is not a sufficient backtest. However, comparing year-by-year, every state will have approximately the same statistics -- same proportion of doubles, same sum distribution, same p... [ More ]

Reply #2

Wisconsin3054 — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 02:40:20 GMT

Hi Amber and Destiny,

My concern with simply backtesting, is that a system could be designed or created around satisfying those past results, in order to create an appearance that the system works. If I know the past 30 days results, I could make a system that happens to cover those 30 days very well. Or maybe a longer period if necessary.

As far as a replacement for backtesting? You can simply forward test without playing real money. If you are in this for the longhaul, then it makes... [ More ]

Reply #1

destinycreation — Tue, 12 Jul 2016 02:01:04 GMT

Back testing is very necessary, b/c it's the only way to find out how well a system works in the state that you are playing in. In my opinion, It would be STUPID to waste money playing a FREE system in forward motion, if there's no evidence that it works well enough in your state through back testing. I have eliminated many FREE systems posted here on LP through back testing, systems that allegedly worked in other states, but NOT in South Carolina.

If its a PAID system, and you don't have th... [ More ]

Back testing systems

amber123 — Mon, 11 Jul 2016 23:05:50 GMT

There are a few people on this site, won't mention names, who believe back testing systems are useless. What I'd like to know is how those same people who are opposed to it would rate a system. How would they know the efficacy of the system when they don't know how well it works in the past?

Although it's true that a good past performance is not a guarantee of how well the system will work in the future, I can't think of any other way to find out. Even the best systems have their dry periods,... [ More ]