When is there a positive expectation for playing Mega Millions?

Reply #10

SixChar — Mon, 22 May 2017 17:21:00 GMT

Variance be snip ed. A +EV gamble is all that I am concerned about. I don't like to gambler per se, just to bet on things that have a positive expectation, even if the odds of winning are terribly bad. At that point, it becomes a function of bankroll management. For example, if the MM was large enough to be +EV mathematically speaking, I would certainly purchase tickets. However, I wouldn't bet the farm on such a mathematically improbable thing. I would only bet an amount that I was comfortable... [ More ]

Reply #9

SixChar — Mon, 22 May 2017 17:13:06 GMT

Actually, I know pot odds and expected value quite well. Perhaps I didn't give the clearest of examples, but the point is that I'm attempting to ascertain exactly how much $ needs to be in the prize pool in order to have a positive expectation in gambling on it. Where $1 input = $1 expected return, mathematically, regardless of the variance which is of course, astronomical in scope and scale.

Reply #8

wander73 — Thu, 11 May 2017 04:44:40 GMT

Your percentage is about correct. 30%- 40% of what the lottery takes back depending on which games and depending on the tax bracket. The rest of what you post I am not clear to the answer.

Reply #7

LottoMetro — Sun, 07 May 2017 20:00:05 GMT

Most players don't realize the bulk of the expected value is only made up of the jackpot, so when they see a high jackpot or even positive expectation game they get very excited for no logical reason. The variance for the jackpot makes it too difficult to earn that expected value without millions of identical trials.

Anyway, the true breakeven jackpot for pari-mutuel games depends on sales, because you have to adjust the jackpot for more than 1 winner (of course multiple winners does not affe... [ More ]

Reply #6

RJOh — Sun, 07 May 2017 15:40:13 GMT

It would probably take a syndicate to cover the cost of play, but I believe using several 15 lines using all 75 numbers with each group of the 15 lines using all 15 bonus numbers, could show profitable results.

If such a feat could be done, it could be simulated on paper or in a computer program and I haven't been able to do either. Such a scheme might be possible with one of the games with a better overall payout average like Lucky for Life or Texas's AON which according to its webpage has... [ More ]

Reply #5

Sunglasses — Fri, 21 Apr 2017 18:53:23 GMT

15 * 5 = 75, using all extra ball numbers, all numbers, you can fit all in 15 lines. A fulllotto that I will put into code.

Reply #4

RJOh — Fri, 21 Apr 2017 12:00:01 GMT

Last night I played 10 line of Lucky for LIfe which I posted on the prediction board which paid $24, a profit of $4. That was the first profit I've made in a long time playing the lottery even though I'm still showing a profit over the long run. I'm starting to believe the only way to have a positive EV on any lottery game is to play only those games with smaller jackpots with a better than average10% play out.

When I play MegaMillions while I usually play all 15 megaballs I seldom managed to... [ More ]

Reply #3

Stack47 — Wed, 05 Apr 2017 06:35:01 GMT

Looking at the systems on LP, most are nothing more than simple RNGs and some don't include the entire matrix. At least your method uses all 75 numbers with the 15 bonus numbers. Many years ago I matched 5 out 6 on one of the first Ohio Lotto games by using all the numbers on the minimal amount of lines.

It would probably take a syndicate to cover the cost of play, but I believe using several 15 lines using all 75 numbers with each group of the 15 lines using all 15 bonus numbers, could show... [ More ]

Reply #2

RJOh — Sun, 02 Apr 2017 11:36:35 GMT

For the last MM drawing I played all 15 mega balls and matched a 1+1 for $2. Since I was only sure I would at least match a 0+1 for $1 my expected value was only 0.07% of what I spent but turned out to be 0.13% of what I spent.

Reply #1

Stack47 — Sun, 02 Apr 2017 04:32:27 GMT

It looks like you're confusing pot odds with expected value and they are two very different things.

For example, lets say if I bet $100 on a poker hand and I have a 55% chance of winning

Without seeing anyone's hole cards, how do you know you have a 55% chance of winning?

After the showdown, you had a 100% chance or zero chance.

So right now, the MegaMillions is $151,000,000 and I would expect it to be negative EV as the odds of winning the grand prize, as well as any other prizes... [ More ]

When is there a positive expectation for playing Mega Millions?

SixChar — Thu, 23 Mar 2017 17:49:26 GMT

There is a concept I learned while playing poker called Expected Value and it basically means that for any bet you make, there is an expected long-term distribution of results that, when condensed, give an overall value. For example, lets say if I bet $100 on a poker hand and I have a 55% chance of winning, my EV is positive because over the long run I expect to win more money than I put into the pot (despite the fact that on any given hand I win or lose the full amount).

It is my understandi... [ More ]