Filter Probability Question

Reply #6

Lottofoolinn — Sun, 18 Nov 2018 15:21:42 GMT

Hey thanks, I'll look into it

Reply #5

winsumloosesum — Sun, 18 Nov 2018 05:28:45 GMT

This is a Pick 3 Tutorial from Lottoman from a number of years ago. This has some very good info regarding probability for Playing the Pick 3 game but can be applied to other games:

https://my.pcloud.com/publink/show?code=XZ7AnT7ZqR41Pmxiz8BQrbBma3GeYFtfsfsV

Reply #4

Lottofoolinn — Sun, 18 Nov 2018 02:22:11 GMT

I get what your saying. I think this pretty much covers what I was asking. Thanks.

Reply #3

oate — Sun, 18 Nov 2018 00:45:08 GMT

Ok, I think I see part what you're asking. Yes, you can get a probability from an average interval. Let's say that on average an outcome happens once every N draws. Then the probability of that event happening is 1/N. The probability that that particular event doesn't occur in K consecutive draws is

(1 - (1/N))^K

An example: The probability of an Even-Even-Even combo in Pick 3 is 1/8 = 0.125 = 12.5%. You would expect the lottery to draw an Even-Even-Even combo once every 8 draws on averag... [ More ]

Reply #2

Lottofoolinn — Sat, 17 Nov 2018 07:04:43 GMT

Thanks for the reply. You probably don't have to have lottery software to do what i did. The 13 percent was jus an example. If you backtest the filter, and say it passed 2/13 times, the percentage would be around 13, so its just a percentage based on how often it has passed given a specified range of draws [i usually like to anaylze the whole history if possible]

So, if you backtested a larger range, say 5000 draws and found out the max amount of draws between when the filter passed was 70... [ More ]

Reply #1

oate — Sat, 17 Nov 2018 05:08:26 GMT

If the probability of an outcome is P (where P is between 0 and 1) then the probability the outcome will occur at least once within the next N drawings is

1 - (1-P)^N

This assumes the drawings are independent. I don't know if that's what you're looking for because I don't use lottery software, and I couldn't tell you what formulas various software authors use to give you probabilities like 13% chance that such and such will hit.

Filter Probability Question

Lottofoolinn — Sat, 17 Nov 2018 02:15:23 GMT

I'm actually not sure if this question has a concrete answer or even makes sense. If you were to analyze a particular filter [from whatever lottery software] and say its Due percentage is high, and the max interval is around the highest based on a large number of draws, is there a particular formula you could use that might suggest what its chance of working are? In other words, if the filter says it has a 13 percent chance after back testing, is there a formula that might give a different perce... [ More ]