How would you play this hypothetical lottery game show?

Reply #12

Tucker Black — Fri, 15 Feb 2019 07:27:17 GMT

OMG I got this wrong

Excellent question!

If you stick with card #745, you have a 1 in 1000 chance of winning the prize, because you started off with 1000 cards, only one of which has the prize.

Since the host has removed 990 losing cards, leaving 10 cards, your card #745 and 9 others, if you switch, the probability of winning is the sum of (probability that #745 was right or wrong) times (probability of winning if you switch to another card), which is:

[745 was right to begin w... [ More ]

Reply #11

KY Floyd — Fri, 15 Feb 2019 06:35:13 GMT

A statistician who knows what he's talking about will tell you that you should always switch

A statistician who knows what he's talking about will know that Monty could always show you a goat because he knew what was behind each door, and that means we can't be sure the game wasn't rigged.

Those who say that switching gives you a 2 in 3 chance of winning the car base it on the assumption that Monty will always open a door with a goat, but I don't recall seeing any sources that actually re... [ More ]

Reply #10

JADELottery — Wed, 13 Feb 2019 13:31:18 GMT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Reply #9

rcbbuckeye — Wed, 13 Feb 2019 13:26:15 GMT

Unfortunately, there are always some that will criticize. Makes them feel better.

Reply #8

duckman — Wed, 13 Feb 2019 05:16:39 GMT

Change your card.

Reply #7

Murgatroyd — Wed, 13 Feb 2019 01:32:13 GMT

A statistician who knows what he's talking about will tell you that you should always switch, but NOT because your odds are now 1 in 2.

When you make your first guess, there's a 2 in 3 chance that you're wrong.

Monty shows you a goat. He can always do this, so it gives you no new information about your original guess. There is still a 2 in 3 chance that you're wrong, but if you are wrong, you now know which one is right. So, there's a 2 in 3 chance that you're switching from wrong to right... [ More ]

Reply #6

KY Floyd — Sat, 09 Feb 2019 20:18:05 GMT

How about door number 2?

Yeah, this is just a variation on the 3 door problem. Most statisticians will tell you that you should always switch doors because your odds are now 1 in 2 instead of 1 in 3, but they don't account for the host knowing what's behind each door. Whether you picked the door with a car or not the host can always show you a goat, and if they can get you to switch from the door with a car they don't need to give away a car. I have no idea if anyone has gone back and looked... [ More ]

Reply #5

Coin Toss — Sat, 09 Feb 2019 16:01:45 GMT

oate,

In Howie Mandel's book Don't Touch Me her explained how he was approached to host Deal or No Deal.

He thought that the people he was dealing with would have went to Kinkos and used cardboard cut outs os something but it was just little scraps of paper.

They explained the game to him and it wass very much like your idea in the OP but with a lot less numbers of course.

Reply #4

CDanaT — Sat, 09 Feb 2019 13:40:52 GMT

If you weren't stuck to the original card #745 and there was another number that was running through your head at the time, that came up in the remaining 9 ? ehhhhhhh,maybe consider that. That 1 in a 1000 isn't great and my instinct is probably more along the lines of it's the 1 of 9 remaining cards chosen by the host... I would change my choice.

To the 12th place trophy winners thinking it's a boring game. Come awwwwn.. Its a hypothetical, go along with it. Have a smidge of fun instead... [ More ]

Reply #3

music* — Sat, 09 Feb 2019 11:51:09 GMT

That's a boring game . Who is going to watch the Host taking down 990 cards?

Try again with a better game idea.

Reply #2

Tucker Black — Sat, 09 Feb 2019 07:50:18 GMT

It makes no difference. Your chance of winning is exactly the same... 1 in 10. That's a boring game.

The Price Is Right has several types of games in which you can take $X now, or keep going to try to win more. One should figure out what the expected value of continuing is and compare it to X.

For example, with the one where you punch up to 5 spots (depending on how well you did guessing the price of various retail products), Drew Carey will pull out the card of punch #1, and you can decid... [ More ]

Reply #1

doodoohead — Fri, 08 Feb 2019 23:57:53 GMT

From the beginning gross odds of 1 in 1000, and then all the way down to a 1 in 10 guaranteed win. Hmmm

How about door number 2

How would you play this hypothetical lottery game show?

oate — Fri, 08 Feb 2019 21:52:31 GMT

Suppose there is a lottery game show played like this:

On a wall there are a thousand cards numbered 000 to 999. Behind exactly one of these cards is symbol that indicates a prize. The host knows which card is covering the symbol, but you don't. You guess the card you think is covering the symbol by saying its number, but not taking it off the wall. Let's say you guess card number 745. Next, out of the 999 cards that you didn't pick, the host randomly selects 990 of them that he knows are not... [ More ]