An Interesting Raffle Question

Reply #18

KY Floyd — Mon, 25 Feb 2019 08:06:15 GMT

I'm saying it's the wrong answer.

You could win when the 1st number is selected or you could win when the 1 millionth number is selected. You could win after the 2nd number is selected or you could win after the 999,999th number is selected. The only time you can't win is when zero numbers have been selected.

The average number of numbers that need to be selected is in the middle, but I think you're confused about where that is.

Reply #17

JADELottery — Sun, 24 Feb 2019 14:37:24 GMT

So, what you're saying is 500,000 numbers selected is your answer.

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Sun, 24 Feb 2019 09:01:32 GMT

And I'm asking if you think there's slightly better than a 50.0000% chance that your number will be in the first 500,000 numbers selected than in the last 500,000 numbers selected? If you don't you also shouldn't think that 500,000 is the correct answer.

Reply #15

JADELottery — Fri, 22 Feb 2019 13:17:16 GMT

We're saying answer this question, How many drawn raffle numbers on average does it take to win a prize

Reply #14

KY Floyd — Fri, 22 Feb 2019 07:18:27 GMT

on average it is 500,000 drawn raffle numbers.

So you're saying there's slightly better than a 50.0000% chance that your number will be in the first 500,000 numbers selected than in the last 500,000 numbers selected?

IMO, the best way to express chances of winning anything is by using percentages.

In many instances I think that would work well, but there are a few problems. One is that a lot of people don't really know what percentages mean. And there are the very steep odds of some... [ More ]

Reply #13

Stack47 — Fri, 22 Feb 2019 00:14:55 GMT

Going back to the question: How many drawn raffle numbers on average does it take to win a prize?

Reverse raffles are becoming excellent fund raisers and usually 100 tickets are sold for pre ticket price usually starting at $10. And depending on the cause, ticket prices of over $50 are not unusual. The concept is specific prizes are awarded for the first number drawn and usually every 5 or 10 drawings until five tickets remain. The last five usually make a deal to split the grand prize, but

Reply #12

Stack47 — Thu, 21 Feb 2019 21:35:48 GMT

Sometimes it's a matter of semantics, and we can express odds in different ways.

and expressing odds as a ratio of ways to win to ways to lose is how casino crap games make free odds payoffs. For instance there are six ways to make a seven and 5 ways to make 6 and 8 so those payoffs are $6 to $5.

IMO, the best way to express chances of winning anything is by using percentages. If there are 10 possible outcomes and you have 2, you have a 20% chance of winning. Most lotteries express overa... [ More ]

Reply #11

JADELottery — Thu, 21 Feb 2019 02:58:50 GMT

Going back to the question: How many drawn raffle numbers on average does it take to win a prize?

Keep in mind, this is one person's ticket winning a prize in a raffle of 1,000,000 tickets numbered 000000 to 999999 and all tickets are sold.

Yes, there may be others playing and as in any raffle, all the prizes are guaranteed to have a winner.

However, only one prize can be awarded to one ticket and that's what the question relates to.

In the original method of a raffle, sequential num... [ More ]

Reply #10

KY Floyd — Thu, 21 Feb 2019 00:20:13 GMT

Sometimes it's a matter of semantics, and we can express odds in different ways.

The only way to win is to have a ticket that matches the winning numbers. If you've got two tickets you have a chance with each ticket, so calling that two ways to win seems reasonable. 2 ways to win and 8 ways to lose gives you a 20% chance of winning and an 80% chance of losing. Most of us express that as 2 in 10 or 1 in 5, which is the number of chances to win out of the number of possibilities.

It's equall... [ More ]

Reply #9

Stack47 — Thu, 21 Feb 2019 00:04:43 GMT

two numbers between 1 and 10. The odds are now 2 in 10, or 1 in 5. That's exactly what I said in the part that Jade didn't quote.

Quick question, a 2 in 10 and a 1 in 5 chance both have a 20% of winning, but doesn't that also means there are 2 ways to win and 8 ways to lose or 25% chance

Reply #8

KY Floyd — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 22:53:16 GMT

We would like to restate.

It took me a moment to see what you were asking. How about this:

On average, how many raffle numbers will need to be drawn before yours is drawn?

Off the top of my head without doing any math I'm thinking it might be answered more easily if there were a million and one raffle tickets.

Reply #7

KY Floyd — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 22:52:11 GMT

I'm sure you know this, but the two people you quoted from the other news story are incorrect about how odds work.

What is it that you think I got wrong?

two numbers between 1 and 10. The odds are now 2 in 10, or 1 in 5.

That's exactly what I said in the part that Jade didn't quote.

according to the logic by the naysayers

If you think I'm one of them you're even further confused.

there are some who just will not believe it

At least you got that one right.... [ More ]

Reply #6

JADELottery — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 20:47:46 GMT

We'll post our finding some time later tonight.

To be clear in understanding:

We have an example of,

Your Raffle #

478605

Draw

Raffle #

1

991946

Did someone win with this raffle number? Yes, but your # 478605 did not.

2

349117

Did someone win with this raffle number? Yes, but your # 478605 did not.

3

941078

Did someone win with this raffle number? Yes, but your # 478605 did not.

Reply #5

JADELottery — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 18:51:23 GMT

This is answerable, but we need to keep this topic on raffle drawings.

The 49/6 is has a different approach to matching a win.

We are looking at one players raffle ticket matching the lottery's drawn raffle numbers.

Also, to redirect, we know there are odds calculated relative to the entire set of raffle tickets sold, however, only one ticket can possibly win one prize.

We have worked on the case where a single player buys multiple raffle tickets, but we'll address the above question... [ More ]

Reply #4

dr san — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 18:40:56 GMT

JADE, but when it is a sequence of numbers type 49/6, how many draws would be to align at least crossing patterns. not the number itself, but the pattern already serves, ex = 1 repeated last with 3 pairs

and three odd, in the initial digit suit = 001334

there is another cross of patterns

Reply #3

JADELottery — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 18:10:57 GMT

We would like to restate.

How many drawn raffle numbers on average does it take to win a prize?

A point was made, Did you already forget that you also had a chance with each of the first nine numbers selected?

We are looking at how many beyond the first nine numbers selected, if your ticket did not win.

Again, we know it is possible to win on the first raffle selected, the second, the ninth, the tenth ... the one millionth.

On average, How many N draws does it take to win a prize... [ More ]

Reply #2

JADELottery — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 16:27:52 GMT

Interesting.

We will keep this in mind.

Reply #1

Todd — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 16:23:00 GMT

The answer to how many draws on average would it take to win a prize (I am assuming that means any prize ) is what they call the overall odds . Pretty much all raffles will publish that number somewhere. If the overall odds are 1 in 20 (for example) than it would take 20 draws on average to win a prize.

I'm sure you know this, but the two people you quoted from the other news story are incorrect about how odds work. This topic has come up many times over the years, and I have patiently tried... [ More ]

An Interesting Raffle Question

JADELottery — Wed, 20 Feb 2019 16:00:51 GMT

Before we get to the raffle and question, we need to do a little back story on where this is originating.

We were reading a Lottery Post News article: Florida lottery to roll out new game and some of the posted replies.

In the article, there were some posted replies that brought up odds of winning in a raffle.

Now, going forward, we'd like to be sure that we are not trying to embarrass or pick on anyone by referencing the posts.

All were looking to do is pose a question that helps gi... [ More ]