"Gaussian Naïve Bayes" Approach

Reply #15

dr san — Thu, 02 Dec 2021 11:14:33 GMT

helo mitacho

64 patterns

13 13 13

13 13 14

13 13 23

13 13 24

13 14 13

13 14 14

13 14 23

13 14 24

13 23 13

13 23 14

13 23 23

13 23 24

13 24 13

13 24 14

13 24 23

13 24 24

14 13 13

14 13 14

14 13 23

14 13 24

14 14 13

14 14 14

14 14 23

14 14 24

14 23 13

14 23 14

14 23 23

14 23 24

14 24 13

14 24 14

14 24 23

14 24 24

23 13 13

23 13 14

23 13 23

23 13 24

23 14 13

23 14 14

23 14 23

Reply #14

dr san — Sun, 28 Nov 2021 18:53:12 GMT

hello mitacho asks=let's say the last draw was 158. This is (Odd Low) (Odd High) (Even High), or 23 24 14. 158 is assigned to the 6 permutations of 23 24 14 ( ie 221, 224 241, 244, 321, 324, 341, 344), or am I making this more complicated than it really is? ok you are correct we have the pairs and the 64 patterns being that a pick3 has up to 8 possibilities I will see the matrix of the number of pairs, you are correct

Reply #13

adobea78 — Sun, 28 Nov 2021 18:22:38 GMT

What's your simplest take on Bayes' law?

Concept behind any ideal should be understood before you use it.

Try using a coin flip (H or T) as start before going to Pick 3,4 ,5 etc.

Bayes law is basically centered around 'Prior Conditional Probability of

a Parameter next prediction.

Prior may be past data (Hard to locate stage of conditional probability)

Conditional Probability may be current probability of a parameter/member,

say I flip a coin 10 times with these outcome HH... [ More ]

Reply #12

mitachoo — Sun, 28 Nov 2021 17:22:11 GMT

Dr San, I'm missing something that I'm sure is obvious, but I don't see it.

The coding is clear:

even = 1 0,2,4,6,8

odd = 2 1,3,5,7,9

low = 3 0,1,2,3,4

high = 4 5,6,7,8,9

But, how do you boil down a draw to a 3 digit code (from the list of 64)?

For example: say the last draw was 158. That's (Odd Low) (Odd High) (Even High), or 23 24 14. Does 158 get assigned to the 6 permutations of 23 24 14 (i.e. 221, 224 241, 244, 321, 324, 341, 344), or am I making this mo... [ More ]

Reply #11

mitachoo — Sun, 28 Nov 2021 15:49:03 GMT

Hi Dr San! I have something put together already, I will dust it off and reply here with a link.

Reply #10

Speler — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 17:42:51 GMT

I swallowed a lot of math, but am not on the top of that. I forgot what I thought, miss the writing of it, the old way before computing ... . They said: Use the calculator! That is what you were taught for! .

Reply #9

Speler — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 17:22:29 GMT

There was Bayes and Boole. Gauss was a German. One did with percentages, another with true and false, another again used Euler's e for curves in a scaled graph. - They often jump steps in articles. - There also was the Bernouille (known for his bernouilles la sauce bolognaise).

Let's start with 6/45.

P(3 numbers are even)=....

The further you go, you drop some of the taught rules of calculation, you start listing and counting with code.

When you think that you know binomial only by k... [ More ]

Reply #8

dr san — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 12:44:43 GMT

mitacho, the base or reference will always be the last pick3, so these 64 patterns show that one of them will always repeat in 100%, because when you had the repetition of a digit in 70% by digit, now for 4 patterns we have the repetition of 3 patterns at 100%, you have to convert the draw list to see the delays of these 64 patterns always from the last pick3 to the next

Reply #7

dr san — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 12:32:27 GMT

even= 1 0,2,4,6,8

odd 2 1,3,5,7,9

low=3 0,1,2,3,4

high= 4 5,6,7,8,9

64 patterns in 100% pick3

111

112

113

114

121

122

123

124

131

132

133

134

141

142

143

144

211

212

213

214

221

222

223

224

231

232

233

234

241

242

243

244

311

312

313

314

321

322

323

324

331

332

333

334

341

342

343

344

411

412

413

414

421

422

423

424

Reply #6

dr san — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 12:25:17 GMT

mitacho in pick 3 we have 3 positions and we have 4 patterns = even / odd / low / high

if one of these 4 patterns in each position always repeats?

example

625= last draw

061=next

1st repeated even pattern, 2nd repeated even and 3rd repeated odd

we have 4x4x4= sap the patterns then from 64 in 100% of pick 3, always one of these 64 patterns repeats from the last pick3 to the next, could you in excel see the delays of the 64? please

Reply #5

dr san — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 12:04:52 GMT

hello mitacho can you excel in the pick3 this too? repetition of the even / odd low / high pattern in each position from the last draw to the next!

example

1st 2nd 3rd

4 5 8= last

1 6 9 = next

mitacho can be seen in the example the repetition of the pattern

low in 1st position repeats high in position and repeats pattern high in third position instead of tracking digits tracking patterns can you

Reply #4

mitachoo — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 11:31:38 GMT

Using the terminology from the Wikipedia link I shared: what I'm envisioning is, for each of the three Pick 3 positions, the Training Set (i.e. historical data for a certain number of past draws) consists of the number that was drawn plus its three Features (perhaps the current skip of the drawn number, and the skip of the other two). You would then go through the math to determine the Posterior associated with each of the 10 numbers to determine which of the 10 has the highest Posterior , and t... [ More ]

Reply #3

mitachoo — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 11:21:46 GMT

Simple, this is not!

Don't fully understand it . . . all I'm doing is converting the example in the link to a Pick 3 application to see if there might be some benefit in using this.

Reply #2

jackpotismine — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 10:26:42 GMT

Clicked on the link and Yikes! WTH! Keep it simple, man. Ha.Ha.

Reply #1

mitachoo — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 07:01:32 GMT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naive_Bayes_classifier#Gaussian_na%C3%AFve_Bayes

"Gaussian Naïve Bayes" Approach

mitachoo — Fri, 26 Nov 2021 06:59:54 GMT

For my latest trip down a rabbit hole I've started looking at something called a Gaussian Na ve Bayes statistical approach. Has anyone gone down this path? I searched the Forum and didn't see anything specifically on this topic.