Powerball Probability Question

Reply #14

Tucker Black — Fri, 24 Jun 2022 18:58:02 GMT

Awesome

Reply #13

Orange71 — Fri, 24 Jun 2022 18:02:37 GMT

Tucker, you are absolutely right. Very keen eyes!

This is the corrected tabulation of the conditional probabilities:

P(0/1 OR 1/1 | Both Are Winners) = (10801392/11750538)^2 = 0.844975180602138

P(2/1 OR 3/0 | Both Are Winners) = (920640/11750538)^2 = 0.00613852710493474

P(3/1 OR 4/0 | Both Are Winners) = (28160/11750538)^2 = 5.74314522591283E-06

P(4/1 | Both are Winners) = (320/11750538)^2 = 7.41625158304859E-10

P(5/0 | Both are Winners) = (25/11750538)^2 = 4.52652074160681E-12... [ More ]

Reply #12

Tucker Black — Fri, 24 Jun 2022 17:17:46 GMT

This is good but there is an error in your calculation. The question was what is the probability two tickets win the same amount (not, match the same number of balls).

0/1 and 1/1 win the same amount -- $4

2/1 and 3/0 win the same amount -- $7

3/1 and 4/0 win the same amount -- $100

The calculation should be done with those three groups of two equal prizes added together. The probability of two Powerball tickets winning the same amount (given that both are winners) is very

Reply #11

Orange71 — Tue, 14 Jun 2022 23:30:08 GMT

Well, if you can tell me how to paste an image object into this website's crappy edit window, I'll be happy to post visuals for you. Apparently other posters must have figured this out. By the way, I have a nasty visual of spooge .

Reply #10

JeetKuneDoLotto — Tue, 14 Jun 2022 03:37:48 GMT

Numbers with lots of decimals, and carryovers,

is great.

However the visualizaiton of these numbers MUCH less than great.

Where is serge...he likes to spooge his senseless numbers everywhere.

Reply #9

Orange71 — Mon, 23 May 2022 22:05:56 GMT

I might add that the probability that both tickets are winners of any kind is P = (11750538 / 292201338) ^ 2 = 0.00161715296769927

Reply #8

Orange71 — Mon, 23 May 2022 19:52:28 GMT

The answer is dependent on the subtle nuance of how the question is asked. There are two possibilities: (a) the unconditional (a priori) probability that two randomly chosen tickets will have the same, winning outcome, and (b) the conditional probability that two randomly chosen tickets will have the same winning outcome given that both tickets are winners. Winning and winners here mean one of the outcomes that pays out a prize, not limited to the Jackpot.

Firstly, we need to recognize that t... [ More ]

Reply #7

cottoneyedjoe — Fri, 13 May 2022 00:38:10 GMT

I play PB/MM when the jackpots are ginormous, but I Superlotto Plus has better odds and costs less, and sometimes the jackpot gets up to the high double-digit millions. I suspect Jeet plays PB/MM too regardless of the weird act he puts on.

Reply #6

rcbbuckeye — Fri, 13 May 2022 00:25:05 GMT

For what it's worth, I play MM and PB because I also play Texas Lotto. The odds hitting the jackpot on Texas Lotto are 1 in 25,827,165. The odds of hitting the $1,000,000 2nd place prize on MM or PB are approximately half of Texas Lotto's odds. Granted the Lotto's jackpot is much higher, but in my case (age), $1 million will do me fine until I croak.

To each his own.

Reply #5

cottoneyedjoe — Thu, 12 May 2022 22:57:16 GMT

For some players it's just an old habit they can't break. What is MUGA, btw? Mice Under Garyo's Apartment

Reply #4

JeetKuneDoLotto — Wed, 11 May 2022 06:02:06 GMT

Why would anybody still play the PB?

If you can get 4 decent pick 3 odds bets vs 1 astronomical PB odds bet...than thats how you define smart.

Thats a Gail Howard maxim, i think...

The whole idea of a 5 dollar ticket is throw away money.

The mathematics behind the draw and the skills applied are mostly scoffed at...

Well our money is mostly thrown towards MUGA these days. MAGA is racist. MUGA is divine.

SLAVA MUGA

Reply #3

cottoneyedjoe — Wed, 04 May 2022 03:15:58 GMT

Hello Speler,

How are you doing? I agree your Euromillions 4+0 payout is pretty paltry in relation to Powerball's. However, the odds of Euromillions 4+0 are 1 in 13,000-ish, whereas the odds for Powerball 4+0 are 1 in 36,000. Considering your game's 4+0 is easier to win, the payouts are comparable. I see they also do pari-mutuel prizes like California.

Thank you for not posting about Africans and for not bringing Garyo as your plus-one. I know you will feign not getting that joke due to... [ More ]

Reply #2

Speler — Sat, 30 Apr 2022 21:03:23 GMT

In most of the country 4+0 and 3+1 both pay $100,

4+0 Euromillions paid 48.40 euros and costs 2.5 euros.

48.40/2.5

= 19.36

Game: 5/50*2/12

Reply #1

cottoneyedjoe — Thu, 28 Apr 2022 15:25:02 GMT

This morning it dawned on me that the answer depends on whether or not you live in California, where the prize amounts are not fixed from drawing to drawing. In most of the country 4+0 and 3+1 both pay $100, 3+0 and 2+1 both pay $7, and 1+1 and 0+1 both pay $4.

I figured out the exact probability of two random quick picks earning the same prize in a normal state is

39,385,084,830,437,945/42,690,810,964,495,122 92.3%

(That includes the likelihood they both win $0)

Unfortunately,... [ More ]

Powerball Probability Question

cottoneyedjoe — Thu, 28 Apr 2022 04:28:39 GMT

Say two people each buy one quick pick for Powerball. (No powerplay or double play add-on, just a normal $2 ticket) What is the probability they win the same amount?

The reason for the question is I recently bought qp's for two people and one of the wanted to bet the other they would win the same amount. At first I thought it was a bad bet, then I realized the probability of both of them winning $0 is pretty high. I could run some simulations to estimate the probability, but I wanted to... [ More ]