State-by-State Comparison: Scratchers Sales vs PB/MM Sales

Reply #19

OhSoClose — Thu, 21 Jul 2022 22:27:49 GMT

That kind of fits the theory. If the lottery is directing big jackpot winners to stores where they know big winners in the past have gone unclaimed, that could explain how some locations get a reputation as a 'lucky' store. There's a couple places around here like that. Every couple years, they get a $250k or greater winner.

It feels kind of cynical to think the lotteries would be attempting to encourage unclaimed winners, but I've noticed in Pennsylvania, they've started using really strange... [ More ]

Reply #18

Stack47 — Thu, 21 Jul 2022 21:13:21 GMT

There was a story about a frequent scratch-off jackpot winner that bought rolls of tickets of games with many top prizes unclaimed. The strategy was the store might get a jackpot winning ticket in the next roll. Don't know if they made an after tax profit.

Found a story about a group from Princeton doing something similar.

Reply #17

OhSoClose — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 20:42:24 GMT

Since we're theorizing here with zero proof, try this one on for size. You're the state lottery commission and your overall goal is to maximize profits without doing anything that could be proven as cheating if it ever came to light. You're also sitting on a mountain of data, so how do you steer scratchers to locations where they be least likely to ever be claimed? That's fairly easy, I'd think. You track the jackpot data distributed by county, then look at jackpots claimed to calculate which co... [ More ]

Reply #16

cottoneyedjoe — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 19:17:39 GMT

Because draw games are much simpler which makes tampering more obvious. And since the data show draw game sales are dwarfed by that of scratchers, it's not worth it.

Scratchers are like a black box and they are a more complicated product. States run dozens of different scratchers series at a time, each series has a dozen or more prize levels. It is much more difficult to see distribution manipulation under those circumstances. And since they dominate sales, it is definitely worth the lottery... [ More ]

Reply #15

Stat$talker — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 19:08:07 GMT

A lottery has the capability to control distribution very precisely, if it wants to. So why wouldn't it?

Uuuuh, You wood'nt by @ny chance be sayin whut Ole Stat$talker'z beeeen sayin fa quite sumtime naaah,.. WoOd'jah ?

Yeap, THAT'Z the cottonpickineye dea ..They CONTROL Distribution..!! But not just Scratcherz,..but...

JaCkPoTz 2oooooooo

So Why wouldn't it?

So?, dig up info on WHEAA Jackpotz are won..!!

-Stat$talker

Reply #14

Artist77 — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 17:05:59 GMT

I agree and that is a big reason why I do not play scratchers in my state. The big winners are rarely in my heavily populated area and seem to be in small rural areas.

Reply #13

cottoneyedjoe — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 16:40:49 GMT

I also have doubts about how random the distribution of scratchers top prizes are, geographically. A lottery has the capability to control distribution very precisely, if it wants to. So why wouldn't it

Reply #12

cottoneyedjoe — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 15:55:33 GMT

Thanks for the kind words

Reply #11

Artist77 — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 13:32:51 GMT

Great research CEJ.

I thought it would be more like 55 to 45 so rather surprised at the results.

Reply #10

Todd — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 12:50:11 GMT

Interesting stuff cottoneyedjoe! Thanks for researching and posting this

Reply #9

OhSoClose — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 12:47:20 GMT

I know your comment is meant to be tongue-in-cheek, but I have wondered about the random distribution of big winners among scratchers. A couple years ago, I noticed that in Pennsylvania, the $20 Christmas scratcher had a grand prize of $1 million and there were 5 of them total in the state. 2 of the 5 million dollar winners were claimed in the same relatively small county, which struck me as highly unlikely. If 5 were randomly distributed throughout the entire state, how did 2 of them end up in

Reply #8

Stat$talker — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 04:14:43 GMT

your belief that the lotteries are manipulating draw games to cheat.

They don't manipulate every Lotto drawing, but some I just happen ta play..they ain't werried bout playaz like YOU..but you can bet, they are werried bout Stat$talker ..You can see EvErYtHaNg perched atop Mathematical Mt. Everest.!

You can even count da amount ov hairz on toppa Lilmeister'z Bald-head..

Aaaye? Whooo iz dat down at da bottom ov da Mt.?.. Iz dat Allen Butthead?.. still in da SAME spot wit hiz Burnt CrIcK... [ More ]

Reply #7

db101 — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 22:33:28 GMT

This post should make you reconsider your belief that the lotteries are manipulating draw games to cheat. The big money is in scratchers. That's where all the cheatin be at

Reply #6

db101 — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 20:24:30 GMT

Wyoming Lottery says on their website FAQ's the reason they dont sell scratchers is because it's prohibited by state law. Their legislature should read this post and see how much money they're missing out on.

Reply #5

rcbbuckeye — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 20:10:05 GMT

I sell a lot of scratchers in my little c-store, but with MM being as high as it is, I'm selling a lot of online tix too.

I always knew scratchers outsell online tix. I think it's the instant gratification (hope?) that drives the high sales, instead of waiting for a drawing.

Nice work Joe

Reply #4

OhSoClose — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 17:18:31 GMT

Have you noticed the sheer number of youtube channels of people who scratch off sometimes hundreds of dollars in tickets per session? It's amazing. Pennsylvania came out with a $50 scratcher not that long ago. I haven't had the budget or will to buy any, but the youtube channels jumped all over them and they were consistently disappointing.

Many of the youtube channel guys consider a successful session to get half their money back. I don't know on what plane of existence that counts as succes... [ More ]

Reply #3

cottoneyedjoe — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:58:49 GMT

I agree OhSoClose. And the dominance of scratchers could be why there hasn't been much innovation in draw games for many years in certain states.

An interesting thing I saw in some of the more detailed reports is that growth in scratchers sales is driven by high-dollar tickets.

Reply #2

Stat$talker — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:14:33 GMT

Hope you find this interesting!

Yeaa, it'z intresting to see that All Statez gotta a LottoFleaz.. since they're All Scratchin soo much.

Kudoz to ya for such xstensive werk

BTW: Wheaaz dat Berd-Brain Buddy ov Yoz? Dat Texez 2 Stepper

Reply #1

OhSoClose — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 11:34:14 GMT

I'd think this is due to a combination of immediacy, availability, and simplicity. Virtually every grocery store and gas station sells scratchers. At the grocery store, it seems like every third or fourth person stops with their cart on the way out to shove a twenty in to try their luck. That's a lot of traffic. It's also much easier than filling out a bet slip or going up to a customer service desk to play the other games and risk looking clueless because you really don't understand what you're... [ More ]

State-by-State Comparison: Scratchers Sales vs PB/MM Sales

cottoneyedjoe — Tue, 19 Jul 2022 05:53:39 GMT

I went through every US state lottery's most recent financial report to see how sales of scratchers compare to sales of Powerball and Mega Millions. Some states didn't have granular data available, but where it is available, you can see scratchers out-sell PB/MM by a wide margin. In two states (OR and SD) lottery sales are dominated by video lottery, and scratchers and draw game sales are just a drop in the bucket. Two other states (ND and WY) don't even sell scratchers. In all states, I did not... [ More ]