1 in 400 million?

Reply #11

eddessaknight — Thu, 15 Dec 2022 02:16:00 GMT

Above Credit LIne: Author G rard de Nerval(1808 1855

Reply #10

eddessaknight — Thu, 15 Dec 2022 00:14:51 GMT

Amen , Paul

To all points of uncertainty

I do not ask of God that he should change anything in events themselves, but that he should change me in regard to things, so that I might have the power to create my own.

Reply #9

paul762 — Mon, 12 Dec 2022 07:56:12 GMT

I wonder what the degree of certainty might be for the middle or end 15 draws from say the last 30 draws and by how much would it deviate either way from the 34.5

Reply #8

cottoneyedjoe — Sun, 11 Dec 2022 16:19:37 GMT

It's all good

Reply #7

rcbbuckeye — Sun, 11 Dec 2022 12:15:18 GMT

Not sure I understand, I like the topic and your post, wasn't criticizing it.... sorry if I offended.

Reply #6

db101 — Sun, 11 Dec 2022 00:03:51 GMT

I don't follow your logic that $1 million is too big for a 4+0 prize assuming a $2 ticket. The odds only have to be bigger than the prize and 3.7 million is larger than 1 million.

Reply #5

cottoneyedjoe — Sat, 10 Dec 2022 17:39:38 GMT

If you don't like the topic you can just ignore it.

Reply #4

cottoneyedjoe — Sat, 10 Dec 2022 17:38:01 GMT

You're probably right about both things -- too many balls is a no-go, and increasing the odds is not sustainable.

Looking at 4/99 + 1/53, its prize levels would be

4 + 1: 1 in 199,511,928

4 + 0: 1 in 3,693,350

3 + 1: 1 in 525,031

3 + 0: 1 in 10,097

2 + 1: 1 in 7,447

2 + 0: 1 in 143

1 + 1: 1 in 360

0 + 1: 1 in 63

overall odds of winning: 1 in 38.5

The second prize odds are too low to support a $1M prize, it would have to be something like half a mill a... [ More ]

Reply #3

db101 — Sat, 10 Dec 2022 15:26:11 GMT

This is good stuff from a mathematical point of view. From a practical perspective, theres no way in he11 PB or MM would ever switch to a 6+1 or 7+1 format. People have a hard enough time figuring out how to choose numbers for 5+1. The 4+1 format might be a go. And as you pointed out, there are too many potential prize categories to deal with the more balls you draw.

Although the trend for matrix changes has been toward worse and worse odds, I strongly feel when they next change the games th... [ More ]

Reply #2

rcbbuckeye — Sat, 10 Dec 2022 01:33:58 GMT

Now THAT is good information.

Reply #1

lottologix — Fri, 09 Dec 2022 20:51:14 GMT

The thing I found out about the big lotteries is it does not matter which one you play. All of the next winning numbers can be found on the last 15 draws about 34.5 percent of the time. That's the only degree of certainty I have found in the big lotteries. It definitely gives a different perspective to the usual analysis methods aka Gail Howard and others. I just look at the most likleys that showed up in the last 15 games. Just a thought tho

1 in 400 million?

cottoneyedjoe — Fri, 09 Dec 2022 16:22:24 GMT

Many people say the big jackpot games Powerball and Mega Millions are due for a matrix change. The last time the operators of these games changed the matrices, the jackpot odds went up to their current state of about 1 in 300 million for each game (give or take some millions).

Idea 1:

What if the group that runs either lottery wanted to make a new matrix resulting in 1 in 400 million jackpot odds. What matrices would give those odds? I ran a script to generate some possibilities getting a... [ More ]