Previous drawings sweet spot

Reply #3

ScoobyDue — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 12:55:14 GMT

That's a good point

I knew there had to be a reason for me to not be using stats dating back to 2001

Thanks for the insight

Reply #2

db101 — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 04:25:11 GMT

Here's the skinny: Lotteries change their balls every few years. Wear and tear from bouncing around in the machines makes the balls non-uniform over time. If you analyze draw data from more than 4 years ago, the balls that produced all that data no longer exist. (OK maybe they still exist but they're in a garbage dump.)

It's true that analyzing too little data over too short a time frame will give you a skewed view of whats going on with the numbers, but too much data going too far back mean... [ More ]

Reply #1

L J1 — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 01:20:10 GMT

Probably if you just work with the L500 (Last 500 Draws), you'll get a pretty good understanding where everything in the game stands as far as what to look for.

Previous drawings sweet spot

ScoobyDue — Tue, 31 Jan 2023 22:00:13 GMT

I'm plotting FL Fantasy 5

There have been over 7,800 drawings in the new format and although I have all my statistics on every drawing, I'm starting to wonder if using all-time statistics is effective

I know 7800 is a drop in the bucket in the law of large numbers, but I'm wondering if you guys have found that only the last 100, 200 or maybe 500 drawings are better stats to use

In other words, is there a sweet spot range where a lot of drawings start to wash out short-term trends... [ More ]