Box odds question

Reply #20

cottoneyedjoe — Fri, 11 Aug 2023 16:00:57 GMT

Sorry I have a typo in my reply. It should be 6/10000 where I wrote 6/24.

In any case, if you don't trust the answers of internet strangers, the best place to get information about lottery odds is directly from the lottery itself. Most state lotteries have a phone number and email contact for these kinds of questions. They'd be more than happy to clarify anything that is confusing about why some box combos have different payouts because they want your business

Reply #19

phileight — Fri, 11 Aug 2023 08:11:04 GMT

it seems to me that you understand how to figure the odds, and the underlying question is how close will the actual drawing match the mathematical odds. my answer is fairly close over time, but about useless for what will happen in the next drawing. when you see under or over performing groups it may be your definition of the groups or it may be just random being a bit random. think of this as a very rough pointer at best. you say these numbers are based on 17000 drawings. if you only use 1000 d... [ More ]

Reply #18

hypersoniq — Wed, 09 Aug 2023 16:10:21 GMT

I believe that the single, 1234 can come out 24 different ways but the double pair 1122 has 6 possible combinations.

There are 10,000 possible combinations from 0000 to 9999. If you play the single, your chance of having a winning combination is 24 in 10,000. Playing the pair doubles is 6 in 10,000. Playing them both is 30 in 10,000. The single has better odds, which is reflected in the payout. PA pays $100 for a 24 way box and $400 for double pairs box.

Reply #17

kdsjeter — Thu, 20 Jul 2023 19:37:10 GMT

Of course for a straight hit the odds are 1 in 10,000, but we are talking about people who actually play pick 4. Box odds are not the same, I actually prefer

to play 50/50 and for my 4538 pick in Maryland I at least get $100 for a box hit, and if I beat the 1/24 odds I also get $2500. You can

always play a combo if your state has it. But a $1 combo will cost your $24 if it is a 24 way number.

Reply #16

Brock Lee — Thu, 20 Jul 2023 19:28:38 GMT

i made a mistake in my calculation. there are actually three people who gave the correct answer. i forgot to count raven62's post where he literally copied the correct odds from the state lottery website. sorry for missing your post raven62.

Reply #15

kdsjeter — Thu, 20 Jul 2023 17:37:36 GMT

Type Number of Example Total Combos

Box Combos

24 Way Box 210 1234 5040

12 Way Box 360 1134 4320

6 Way Box 45 2233 270

4 Way Box 90 2223 360

705

Play 1 of each box type

odds are 4/705 on hitting box

Play 3 of each box type for a total

of 15 box plays and your odds are

1 in 47 (15/705 reduces to 1 in 47)

of hitting for box money.

Decimal .021276 chance

Reply #14

kdsjeter — Wed, 19 Jul 2023 20:05:22 GMT

Brock ... I agree to disagree and will post my analysis later. The reference was to boxed hits only. The odds are different

than straight hits. Until later.

Reply #13

Brock Lee — Wed, 19 Jul 2023 20:00:43 GMT

it takes a special kind of person to double down on the wrong answer after the correct answer and explanation have already been give, twice. eat more vegetables, brah.

Reply #12

kdsjeter — Wed, 19 Jul 2023 14:25:42 GMT

ScoobyDue ... yes people seem to get fixated on the overall odds which are for a straight hit, 1 in 10,0000. But

when you are playing box the odds of 1 in 715 are correct. Your odds of hitting boxed, while we understand that

a single boxed number has 24 combinations, in Maryland for a $1 box you get $200. Suffice it to say if you are

playing two different boxed combinations 2 of 715 or .02797% is still a low chance. I have used this strategy

and have hit boxed. Still have not hit... [ More ]

Reply #11

cottoneyedjoe — Sat, 15 Jul 2023 01:45:52 GMT

ScoobyDue, the various box combos do not have a uniform probability of 1/715 of being drawn. Since some have more permutations than others, the probabilities are different. DB101 gave you the correct answer: Any permutation of 1234 has a 24/10000 chance of occurring, and any permutation of 1122 has a 6/24 chance of occuring. This is because there are 24 ways to arrange the digits 1234 and only six ways to arrange the digits 1122.

Have a look

1234 1243 1324 1342 1423 1432 2134 2143 2314 2... [ More ]

Reply #10

ScoobyDue — Fri, 14 Jul 2023 23:35:19 GMT

Let me rephrase the question and hope I can make someone understand what I'm trying to ask

I have divided all of the possible box combinations into 23 different categories as follows

Combos

10

30

30

30

30

15

30

60

60

60

30

60

30

30

10

30

30

15

30

60

10

10

15

So if each combo has a 1/715 chance of hitting, then my expectations would be:

Combos Exp

10 0.014... [ More ]

Reply #9

Brock Lee — Wed, 12 Jul 2023 01:59:08 GMT

i don't know about box odds, but i've seen some odd boxes.

Reply #8

db101 — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 16:10:01 GMT

The probability of winning 1234 boxed is 24/10000, because there are 24 ways to arrange the four different digits and 10000 possible outcomes.

The probability of winning 1122 boxed is 6/10000 because there are only 6 different ways to arrange the digits {1, 1, 2, 2} and 10000 possible outcomes.

Reply #7

Raven62 — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 16:08:14 GMT

Play Types Odds Prize Payouts Odds Prize Payouts

STRAIGHT 50 Play $1.00 Play 50 Play $1.00 Play

1:10,000 $2,500 $5,000 1:2,500 $750 $1,500

BOX 50 Play $1.00 Play 50 Play $1.00 Play

4-WAY 1:2,500 $599 $1,198 1:625 $190 $380

6-WAY 1:1,666.67 $400 $800 1:416.67 $126 $252

12-WAY 1:833.33 $200 $400 1:208 $63 $126

24-WAY 1:416.67 $100 $200 1:104 $31 $62

STRAIGHT/BOX Cost $1 BOX STRAIGHT* BOX STRAIGHT*

4-WAY 1:10,000 1:2,500 $599 $3,099 1:2,500 1:625 $190 $9... [ More ]

Reply #6

ScoobyDue — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 23:25:43 GMT

I guess I didn't explain my question very well

Reply #5

Raven62 — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:45:59 GMT

Let No Man Deceive You

Reply #4

Raven62 — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:40:17 GMT

3 Brands of Deception Satan Uses to Blind Us:

https://openthebible.org/article/3-brands-deception-satan-uses-blind-us

Reply #3

Raven62 — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:35:57 GMT

Romans 4:18 TPT

Against all odds, when it looked hopeless, Abraham believed the promise and expected God to fulfill it. He took God at his word, and as a result he became the father of many nations. God's declaration over him came to pass: Your descendants will be so many that they will be impossible to count

Reply #2

eddessaknight — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:26:27 GMT

Remember: The Odds Will Deceive You

Reply #1

Raven62 — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:14:32 GMT

Explained Here:

https://www.flalottery.com/pick4-howToPlay

Box odds question

ScoobyDue — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 19:28:11 GMT

In Pick 4 there are 715 different box combinations

210 singles (ex: 1234)

360 doubles (ex: 1123)

45 Double Pairs (Ex: 1122)

90 Triples (Ex: 1112)

10 Quads (Ex: 1111)

My question is, if I'm playing just 2 boxes, say 1122 and 1234, then do they both have the same 1/715 box odds?

Or is the double pair combo odds different since its type of combination has 45 boxes while the other has 210