Megamillions number frequency - probability puzzle

Reply #8

Brock Lee — Sat, 16 Dec 2023 00:07:32 GMT

is it now late enough to thank you

Reply #7

Wavepack — Fri, 15 Dec 2023 00:48:39 GMT

^ The Powerball was 18 on Dec 13, 2023.

Reply #6

mathematic6G — Wed, 13 Dec 2023 01:05:24 GMT

I'm new here and I would like to share my studies with the dreamers.

I know the Power ball# is not 9, 13, 21, 23, 25, 4, 16, 18.

You can thank me later.

Reply #5

wander73 — Tue, 12 Dec 2023 21:49:56 GMT

Frequency, you mean pattern. According to someone I know of , this person knows someone else that has won over $5 million and knows which numbers in the pattern that will hit.

Reply #4

Wavepack — Tue, 12 Dec 2023 21:33:41 GMT

Seeing the form of the answer, I'm now interested in knowing why it's true. A proof would be nice to learn from.

What math formatter did you use to express the formula

Reply #3

Orange71 — Tue, 12 Dec 2023 01:20:25 GMT

I usually use VScode, but I have Anaconda installed, so all the pursuant data science packages with Anaconda (e.g. Numpy, Scipy, Pandas, etc.) are available by import. I also have a few packages that are not available with conda install, so I use PIP instead.

For this particular problem I did not code a Python app, rather I just used an Excel spreadsheet. Certainly you could write a Python app if you want.

Here's the algorithm for calculating the probability for problem (a). I put probl... [ More ]

Reply #2

Wavepack — Wed, 06 Dec 2023 16:01:29 GMT

The mathematics and reasoning used to arrive at the answer is more interesting to me than just the answer.

What IDE do you use for Python? Though I mostly analyze in Matlab, I dabble in Python to help verify analysis of the NZ whistleblower data in regards to excess deaths and Covid shots. For Python, the IDE I currently use is VSCode with the Python, PyLance, and Git extensions.

Reply #1

Orange71 — Thu, 23 Nov 2023 01:03:54 GMT

Here are the probabilities for question (a), at least one ball does not occur in multiple game draws. N is the number of game draws. For 50 draws the probability is 84.01%. As you can see, the probability distribution has a long tail, and is thus very right-skewed.

N Prob

30 0.999929

35 0.997918

40 0.982929

45 0.934073

50 0.840123

55 0.711815

60 0.571840

65 0.440267

70 0.328311

75 0.239218

80 0.171456

85 0.121477

90 0.085378

Megamillions number frequency - probability puzzle

Orange71 — Fri, 17 Nov 2023 18:46:58 GMT

In Megamillions there are 70 numbers in the main lotto pool (not counting the Megaball). 5 numbers are drawn from this pool in each game. Consider 50 random game draws. What is the probability that at least one number (ball) will (a) never occur in the 50 draws, and (b) occur in at least 10 game draws