my idea for a multi-state lottery

Reply #14

Tucker Black — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 10:25:37 GMT

I like that one

Reply #13

MartyMcNuts — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 09:58:50 GMT

Why? More balls would make it too difficult. Would lowering the amounts a little make a difference?

55 Balls still so same odds.

6/6 $7.5 Mil (1 in 28,989,675) - (0.26)

5/6 $7,500 (1 in 98,604) - (0.08)

4/6 $75 (1 in 1,643) - (0.05)

3/6 $7.50 (1 in 79) - (0.09)

so about 48c + 10c = 58c. Your calculation for get 1 free would be .48* 6 = 2.88 + 0.50 = 3.38 / 5 = 0.68.

Reply #12

Tucker Black — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 07:43:42 GMT

I like the prize amounts on the second one. You need just a couple more balls to make the $5 ticket value around 75%.

Reply #11

MartyMcNuts — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 05:14:12 GMT

I get it. $20 million is still more than most people would ever need. Heck, even $5 million is still life changing for most people. 1 in 18 million chance is much better but still might be a little too high. 1 in 8-10 million would be great with a $5 mil jackpot. Most draws would probably result in a winner or two.

So my 50 ball suggestion would work if the jackpot was reduced to $5 million and you kept the $1.00 ticket and buy 5 get 1 free, although the lottery would not really be maki... [ More ]

Reply #10

Tucker Black — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 02:56:45 GMT

My idea is to have a game that costs $1.00. The buy 5, get one free is similar to promotions that lotteries run, but make this a permanent part of the game. For those who don't mind spending $5 on a progressive draw game, they get an extra chance to win.

$20 million isn't as much as hundreds of millions, but it's still life-changing. It's about the same as MM starting jackpot but without the absurdly low chances of winning. 1 in 18 million instead of 1 in 300 million. More frequent winners i... [ More ]

Reply #9

MartyMcNuts — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 00:19:31 GMT

So don't give a free ticket and make the ticket price $1.50 or $1.60. It would still be worth it for the consumer.

Reply #8

Tucker Black — Sat, 13 Dec 2025 23:25:37 GMT

For the 6 of 50 prize structure, those prizes add up to $1.08, so not possible on a $1 ticket.

The way to calculate this is to take the prize amount divided by n (odds being 1 in n ) and add them up. Then add 10 cents for the progressive feature. This is the value of a $1 ticket. It needs to be at least 50 cents but not too high or the lottery won't make any money (good for the players but the states/MUSL won't adopt it).

To calculate the RTP of a $5 wager (buy 5, get one free), take the... [ More ]

Reply #7

Tucker Black — Sat, 13 Dec 2025 23:19:11 GMT

At the dollar rate, that provides the lottery with a 28% margin. But at the five dollar rate (buy 5, get 6 lines), it shrinks to 15%. That's tough when they have to pay the retailer a 7% commission.

Reply #6

MartyMcNuts — Sat, 13 Dec 2025 23:12:03 GMT

To make it even more appealing, you could even reduce the number of balls to say 50? and reduce first division to say $10 million and second division to say $10k.

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 15,890,700)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 60,192)

4/6 $100 (1 in 1120)

3/6 $10 (1 in 60)

or 44 balls perhaps??

6/6 $10 Mil (1 in 7,059,052)

5/6 $10,000 (1 in 30,961)

4/6 $100 (1 in 669)

3/6 $10 (1 in 42)

Again, I don't know the logistics but....

Reply #5

MartyMcNuts — Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:50:58 GMT

That does look better but without looking at the logistics, I would think something like:

6/6 $20 Million

5/6 $100,000

4/6 $100

3/6 $10

would be good. Looks more appealing with these rounded figures.

Reply #4

Tucker Black — Sat, 13 Dec 2025 21:22:38 GMT

Good point. I can make the RTP the same with this prize structure:

6/6 $20 million

5/6 $90,000

4/6 $150

3/6 $5

Probability of getting 4 of 6 is 1 in 3,736. 3 of 6 is 1 in 131.

Reply #3

MartyMcNuts — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 23:45:16 GMT

What about prizes for matching 4 or 3 numbers? If there are only prizes for matching 5 or 6 no one would play the game as it is simply far too difficult to match 5+ (1 in 294k+) or you don't win anything.

If you are interested in a multi-state lottery try looking at something like Australia's 6/45 Tattslotto game to help with our idea. It has been running since about 1986 and is by far our most popular lottery game.

Reply #2

Tucker Black — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 21:53:12 GMT

I think you've made a mistake, presumably in point 4. You know the chance of matching 6 of 68 is 1 in 109.45 million, so you should expect 1 jackpot winner for every 109.45 million tickets. With 10 cents from each ticket going to the jackpot you'll have just under $11 million each time you pay a winner $25 million. You could do that with an annuity, but if you hand out cash you have a problem. To fully fund a cash prize of $25 million you'd need 22.84 cents from each ticket to go to the jackpot.... [ More ]

Reply #1

KY Floyd — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 19:40:25 GMT

4) 10 cents of each ticket gets added to the jackpot.

Thoughts?

I think you've made a mistake, presumably in point 4. You know the chance of matching 6 of 68 is 1 in 109.45 million, so you should expect 1 jackpot winner for every 109.45 million tickets. With 10 cents from each ticket going to the jackpot you'll have just under $11 million each time you pay a winner $25 million. You could do that with an annuity, but if you hand out cash you have a problem. To fully fund a cash prize of... [ More ]

my idea for a multi-state lottery

Tucker Black — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 14:28:44 GMT

1) Choose 6 numbers from 1 to 68.

2) Tickets cost $1.

3) Match all 6 to win the jackpot, which starts at $25 million.

4) 10 cents of each ticket gets added to the jackpot.

5) Match 5 of 6 to win the 2nd prize of $100,000.

6) Buy 5, get one free. For $5, you get 6 lines, which is either 6 QP or your playslip of 5 sets of 6 numbers plus one QP.

7) Both prizes are all cash (subject to taxes, of course, we can't get around that). No annuity BS. If you win $25 million and want... [ More ]