Probability of a rollover in PB and MM

Reply #204

Jake649 — Thu, 05 Aug 2004 20:21:33 GMT

Further to my previous post, the following was found on the OLGC web site: Once the jackpot reaches $25 million, the Pool's Fund is redistributed to allocate more prize money to secondary levels. See http://lotteries.olgc.ca/consumer_hp_649.jsp?game=649 flag=null for details.Good luck,Jake

Reply #203

Jake649 — Thu, 05 Aug 2004 19:32:01 GMT

With a jackpot of $29 million and sales of 17 million tickets, I calculate the expected value at 79%. A far cry from a positive expected value but much better than what most lotteries ever offer.I predict the jackpot will be larger than $29 million. It should be well over $30 million based on previous sales unless the Lottery company is imposing a throttle-down approach on the jackpot. I recall something to that effect when the new Lotto 649 game was announced. I will try to find the information... [ More ]

Reply #202

LotteryBuddy — Thu, 05 Aug 2004 16:47:00 GMT

For the first time in a millennium, the jackpot of a Canadian lottery exceeds its odds. The Lotto 6/49 jackpot for Saturday, August 7 is C$29 million while the odds of winning the jackpot is 1 in 27,967,632 per $1 wager.The approximate odds of the number of jackpot winners for Saturday are (based on 17 million tickets sold or C$34 million):0 - 30%1 - 36%2 - 22%3 - 9%4 or more - 3%Can Jake649 or prob987 please calculate the expected payout? This may be the closest that a Canadian lottery ever g... [ More ]

Reply #201

prob987 — Sun, 01 Aug 2004 13:38:16 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over again on July 28 and is now 63,000,000 million dollars annuity rolling from 54,000,000 million annuity. The cash value has risen from 28.2 million to 33 million, an increase of 4.8 million meaning 14.7 million in sales is expected.The following table gives for each number of winners followed by the probability of that number of winners occurring:088.52%110.79%20.66%30.03%Good luck.

Reply #200

prob987 — Thu, 29 Jul 2004 04:32:24 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over again on July 28 and is now 54,000,000 million dollars annuity rolling from 44,000,000 million annuity. The cash value has risen from 23.2 million to 28.2 million, an increase of 5 million meaning 15.3 million in sales is expected.The following table gives for each number of winners followed by the probability of that number of winners occurring:088.07%111.18%20.71%30.03%Good luck.

Reply #199

prob987 — Thu, 22 Jul 2004 08:53:25 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over rising to $ 47 million dollars annuity from $37 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 21.2 million dollars to 27.0 million dollars. This means the lottery is anticipating about 18.3 million sales for this drawing.The following table gives for each number of winners, the probability of that number of winners occuring:087.33%111.83%20.80%30.04% Good luck.

Reply #198

prob987 — Sun, 18 Jul 2004 19:18:49 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over rising to $ 37 million dollars annuity from $29 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 16.4 million dollars to 21.2 million dollars. This means the lottery is anticipating about 15.1 million sales for this drawing.The following table gives for each number of winners, the probability of that number of winners occuring: 089.40%110.02%20.56%30.02%Good luck.

Reply #197

prob987 — Sun, 18 Jul 2004 19:15:10 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over again on July 15 and is now 27,000,000 million dollars annuity rolling from 21,000,000 million annuity. The cash value has risen from 10.9 million to 14.5 million, an increase of 4.1 million meaning 11.0 million in sales is expected.The following table gives for each number of winners followed by the probability of that number of winners occuring:091.26%18.34%20.38%30.01%Good luck.

Reply #196

prob987 — Thu, 15 Jul 2004 09:33:40 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over again on July 15 and is now 21,000,000 million dollars annuity rolling from 13,000,000 million annuity. The cash value has risen from 6.8 million to 10.9 million, an increase of 4.1 million meaning 12.55 million in sales is expected.The following table gives for each number of winners followed by the probability of that number of winners occuring:090.11%19.38%20.49%30.02%Good luck.

Reply #195

prob987 — Thu, 15 Jul 2004 00:19:08 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over rising to $29 million dollars annuity from $20 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 11.3 million dollars to 16.4 million dollars. This means the lottery is anticipating about 16.1 million sales for this drawing.The following table gives for each number of winners, the probability of that number of winners occuring.088.77%110.57%20.63%30.02%40.00%(The zero for four winners is rounded and represents a nonzero, but small, probability. )Good luck.

Reply #194

prob987 — Sat, 03 Jul 2004 02:15:21 GMT

I'm surprised the lottery didn't rise past $290 million annuity. The public must be getting jaded. If the lottery HAS NOT in fact so risen, there is now 45 minutes before the drawing, apparently a very decent chance of a rollover. Having (a) winner(s) is more probable, but there is still a very good chance at yet another rollover.

Reply #193

prob987 — Fri, 02 Jul 2004 10:34:29 GMT

New probabilities at $290 million jackpot:040.89%136.57%216.35%34.87%41.09%50.19%60.03

Reply #192

prob987 — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 09:15:26 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over again and has risen on an annuity basis from $220 million to $280 million. The cash jackpot has risen from $124.7 million to $155 million dollars. It is of course subject to climbing further over the next several days, but right now the lottery is expecting $95.6 million in sales. This suggests that there is right now a 49.3% the jackpot will rollover again, a 34.9% chance of one winner, a 12.4% chance of 2 winners, a 2.9% chance of three winners, 0.51% chance

Reply #191

prob987 — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 09:07:28 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on June 29, 2004Your text say 56% chance of 1 winner, but your chart says 56% chance of zero winners. Which one is right?I was tired. It was a 56% of zero winners, which is in fact what happened. I apologize. The chart, taken directly from the spreadsheet used for the Poisson calculation, was correct.

Reply #190

RJOh — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 03:52:23 GMT

We won't know which 56% is right until after Friday's jackpot is posted.RJOh

Reply #189

Todd — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 02:55:24 GMT

Your text say 56% chance of 1 winner, but your chart says 56% chance of zero winners. Which one is right

Reply #188

prob987 — Wed, 30 Jun 2004 02:50:02 GMT

Closing out on this MM drawing it seems that the jackpot has risen to 220 million annuity dollars from 177 million annuity dollars on the last draw and from 100 million cash to 124.7 million in cash. This implies that the lottery is expecting 77.9 million in sales (it may prove greater). If the amount proves to be close to the last advertised amount though, this would suggest that there is a 56.2% chance of one winner, a 32.4% of one winner, a 9.3% of two winners, a 1.8% of three winners, a 0... [ More ]

Reply #187

prob987 — Sun, 27 Jun 2004 01:59:32 GMT

My immediate above post notwithstanding, I suspect MM will grow more than predicted and that the overall probability of another rollover will fall below 50%. Still yet another rollover (or even two) is very much in the realm of possibility.

Reply #186

prob987 — Sat, 26 Jun 2004 06:21:28 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot rolled over on 06/18/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 177 million to 210 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 100 million to 119.1 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 60.3 million according to the lottery. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 60.0%. The probability of a single winner will be around 28.55%, of two winners, 6.4%, of three winners, 0.95% and of four winners, 0.11% and of five winners,... [ More ]

Reply #185

prob987 — Thu, 24 Jun 2004 03:33:19 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot rolled over on 06/18/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 150 million to 177 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 84.8 million to 100 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 48 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 70.1%. The probability of a single winner will be around 24.9%, of two winners, 4.4%, of three winners, 0.52% and of four winners, 0.045%.Good luck.

Reply #184

skyhawk2472 — Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:08:00 GMT

Ryan,Thanks for the information. I will take it home later and study it some more. Pretty neat stuff. I really didn't do well in statistics, but this crash course will help me.Thanks again.

Reply #183

ryanm — Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:43:42 GMT

Well, for the odds of winning just $2, the reason it's not 1 in 52 is because you also have to figure the odds that you will NOT match any of the white balls. You use the following formula: The numerator for figuring the odds of matching X number of white balls is always: (52*51*50*49*48) / 120 = 2,598,960 In other words, there are 2,598,960 possible combinations of the first five white balls. The odds that you will match X number of white balls is as follows: 2,598,960 / ((120/(X! * (5-X... [ More ]

Reply #182

skyhawk2472 — Wed, 23 Jun 2004 13:38:01 GMT

I'm not much of a statistics guy, but can anyone explain how the Mega Millions comes up with the odds that they have, especially for the jackpot, and also to win just $2. I know there are 52 balls in the hopper for the Mega Ball, but how can the odds be 1:88 and the overall odds be 1:43, something seems strange.Thanks.

Reply #181

prob987 — Wed, 23 Jun 2004 02:10:23 GMT

The Power jackpot rolled over on 06/16/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 47 million to 55 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 24.3 million to 28.7 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 13.47 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 90.5%. The probability of a single winner will be around 9.0%, of two winners, 0.45%, and of three winners, 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #180

prob987 — Tue, 22 Jun 2004 02:30:50 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot rolled over on 06/18/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 121 million to 150 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 67.9 million to 84.8 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 53.3 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 67.4%. The probability of a single winner will be around 27.6%, of two winners, 5.2%, of three winners, 0.7% and of four winners, 0.07% and of 5 winners, 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #179

prob987 — Thu, 17 Jun 2004 23:58:56 GMT

Lottofan:If you look back in this thread, you will see lots of discussion of my methods, including sales estimation (which I calculate from the predicted cash values.) Many other posters here made contributions and helped refine my estimates. They are just that though.Actually when the number of tickets is small when compared with the odds, the method yields values that are very close the type of calculation you suggest where the sales/odds percentage is subtracted from 100.

Reply #178

LottoFan — Thu, 17 Jun 2004 23:04:23 GMT

Prob987: If I take 14.7 million and divide it by 120 million, I get 11.7 percent. That would represent the approximate number of tickets that are eligible to win. Subtracting 11.7 percent from 100 percent, I get approximately 88.5 percent. This would represent the unsold combinations, which, I think you are assuming equals a probability of a rollover. That having been said, your formula tends to predict a winner when the total ticket sales approaches the total number of eligible combinations... [ More ]

Reply #177

prob987 — Thu, 17 Jun 2004 04:11:37 GMT

The Power jackpot rolled over on 06/16/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 38 million to 47 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 19.5 million to 24.3 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 14.7 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 88.5%. The probability of a single winner will be around 10.8%, of two winners, 0.66%, and of three winners, 0.03%.Good luck.

Reply #176

prob987 — Wed, 16 Jun 2004 07:40:59 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot rolled over on 06/11/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 100 million to 121 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 55.9 million to 67.9 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 37.9 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 75.6%. The probability of a single winner will be around 21.1%, of two winners, 2.97%, of three winners, 0.28% and of four winners, 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #175

prob987 — Wed, 16 Jun 2004 01:37:13 GMT

The Power jackpot rolled over on 06/12/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 30 million to 38 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 15.5 million to 19.5 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 12.2 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 90.3%. The probability of a single winner will be around 9.2%, of two winners, 0.46%, and of three winners, 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #174

prob987 — Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:59:37 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot rolled over on 06/11/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 84 million to 100 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 47.4 million to 55.9 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 28.6 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 82.0%. The probability of a single winner will be around 16.3%, of two winners, 1.61%, of three winners, 0.11% and of four winners, 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #173

prob987 — Thu, 27 May 2004 01:40:19 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 05/25/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 33 million to 42 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 18.5 million to 23.5 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 15.8 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 89.0%. The probability of a single winner will be around 10.4%, of two winners, 0.610% and of three winners 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #172

prob987 — Tue, 25 May 2004 00:46:19 GMT

Owing to the last megamillions rollover, the annuity jackpot has increased from 26 million to 33 million and the cash value has increased from 14.5 million to 18.5 million, a cash value increase of 4.0 million dollars. This suggests that Megamillions is anticipating 12.6 million in sales. The probability of the Megamillion jackpot rolling over on 4/25/04 is 91.1%; the probability of one winner is 8.5%; of two winners, 0.4% and of three winners, 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #171

prob987 — Sun, 23 May 2004 16:16:34 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 5/22/04 and has now risen to $41 million annuity dollars from 33 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $16.7 million to $21 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $13.2 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89.6%. The probability it will have one winner is 9.8%, two winners, 0.5%, and of three winners, 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #170

prob987 — Mon, 10 May 2004 13:35:32 GMT

The Powerball has been won. Congrats to the PA winner.The last MM jackpot restart of $10,000,000 had sales of around 10.3 million.This means, if the lottery behaves the same, that there is a 91.8% chance of it rolling over; a 7.9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.34% chance of two winners, and a 0.01% chance of three winner

Reply #169

prob987 — Sat, 08 May 2004 06:58:09 GMT

The powerball jackpot has increased and has now risen to $212 million annuity dollars from 170 milliion annuity dollars in the last drawing. The cash value has increased from $90.4 million to $110.3 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $60.9 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 60.3%. The probability it will have one winner is 30.5%, two winners, 7.7%, of three winners, 1.3% and of four winners, 0.16% and five winners 0.02%. Good luck

Reply #168

prob987 — Sat, 08 May 2004 06:50:40 GMT

The MegaMillions has been won. Congrats to the NY winner.The last MM jackpot restart of $10,000,000 had sales of around 12 million.This means, if the lottery behaves the same, that there is a 92.2% chance of it rolling over; a 7.5% chance of there being one winner, a 0.3% chance of two winners, and a 0.01% chance of three winner

Reply #167

smd173 — Fri, 07 May 2004 22:56:33 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on May 06, 2004 Sometimes jackpots this size lead to announcements of larger jackpots before the drawing, changing these figures. I will try to update this data if that occurs.Good luck.Well now it's at $212 Mil/$110.3 Mil.

Reply #166

prob987 — Thu, 06 May 2004 15:52:27 GMT

Correction: The probability of five winners in the powerball is 0.01%, not 0.1

Reply #165

prob987 — Thu, 06 May 2004 07:09:15 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 5/1/04 and has now risen to $205 million annuity dollars from 170 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $90.4 million to $107.3 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $51.7 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 65.1%. The probability it will have one winner is 27.9%, two winners, 6%, of three winners, 0.9% and of four winners, 0.09% and five winners 0.1%. Sometimes jackpots this si... [ More ]

Reply #164

prob987 — Wed, 05 May 2004 10:30:30 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 05/04/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 55 million to 66 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 31.2 million to 37.5 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 19.8 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 86.3%. The probability of a single winner will be around 12.7%, of two winners, 0.93% and of three winners 0.05%.Good luck.

Reply #163

prob987 — Sun, 02 May 2004 07:06:16 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 5/1/04 and has now risen to $170 million annuity dollars from 145 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $76.3 million to $90.4 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $43.2 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 69.9%. The probability it will have one winner is 25.0%, two winners, 4.5%, of three winners, 0.5% and of four winners, 0.05%.Good luck.

Reply #162

Todd — Sat, 01 May 2004 16:36:40 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on May 01, 2004Thanks twisted.Unless for some reason Todd objects, I'll continue to use this thread, since all the mathematical questions and answers are buried in these pages. No problem.

Reply #161

prob987 — Sat, 01 May 2004 10:44:57 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 04/30/04 and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 45 million to 55 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 25.7 million to 31.2 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 17.4 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 88.0%. The probability of a single winner will be around 11.3%, of two winners, 0.73% and of three winners 0.03%.Good luck.

Reply #160

prob987 — Sat, 01 May 2004 10:41:01 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #159

twisted — Fri, 30 Apr 2004 21:07:21 GMT

Mee too prob987. I ch

Reply #158

prob987 — Fri, 30 Apr 2004 02:44:22 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #157

NBey6 — Thu, 29 Apr 2004 10:02:48 GMT

Thank you for postings on

Reply #156

prob987 — Thu, 29 Apr 2004 09:53:44 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/24/04 and has now risen to $145 million annuity dollars from 120 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $63.4 million to $76.3 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $39.4 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 72.0%. The probability it will have one winner is 23.6%, two winners, 3.9%, of three winners, 0.4% and of four winners, 0.03%.Good luck.

Reply #155

prob987 — Wed, 28 Apr 2004 09:52:01 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 36 million to 45 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 20.5 million to 25.7 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 16.4 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 88.6%. The probability of a single winner will be around 10.7%, of two winners, 0.65% and of three winners 0.03%.Good luck.

Reply #154

prob987 — Mon, 26 Apr 2004 17:47:12 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 26, 2004This came up elsewhere, so I'll mention that the last time the powerball exceeded 200 million was New Year's Eve just passed. Modelling on that run suggests that there is now roughly a 50:50 chance that the powerball will exceed $200 million dventually.I made an error in this calculation (I think I'm getting senile) by ignoring the very next drawing (which also must rollover). Recalculating, it seems that the probability of the Powerball jac... [ More ]

Reply #153

prob987 — Mon, 26 Apr 2004 16:31:44 GMT

This came up elsewhere, so I'll mention that the last time the powerball exceeded 200 million was New Year's Eve just passed. Modelling on that run suggests that there is now roughly a 50:50 chance that the powerball will exceed $200 million dventually.

Reply #152

prob987 — Sun, 25 Apr 2004 04:41:34 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/24/04 and has now risen to $120 million annuity dollars from 103 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $55.4 million to $63.4 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $24.5 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 82%. The probability it will have one winner is 17%, two winners, 1.7%, of three winners, 0.1% and of four winners, 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #151

prob987 — Sat, 24 Apr 2004 11:36:52 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 28 million to 36 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 16 million to 20.5 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 14.2 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 90%. The probability of a single winner will be around 9.5%, of two winners, 0.5% and of three winners 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #150

prob987 — Thu, 22 Apr 2004 20:50:43 GMT

So am I a man of little time.

Reply #149

DoctorEw220 — Thu, 22 Apr 2004 18:20:18 GMT

dude. there's 15 pages. i'm a man of little time.

Reply #148

prob987 — Thu, 22 Apr 2004 17:52:42 GMT

If you scroll back through this thread, you'll find the answers to these questions, formulas, assumptions, sales, etc.

Reply #147

DoctorEw220 — Thu, 22 Apr 2004 05:13:29 GMT

Does it throw off your statistics when the jackpot is won, or even split at the starting level

Reply #146

DoctorEw220 — Thu, 22 Apr 2004 05:12:45 GMT

how do you figure this stuff out, and how accurate is it? remember when a $42 million powerball jackpot was split last year. not to mention, the powerball jackpot has been split between 2 tickets at the starting level before. When Mega Millions was The Big Game, the jackpot was also split at least once at the starting level before.

Reply #145

prob987 — Thu, 22 Apr 2004 05:05:37 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/17/04 and has now risen to $103 million annuity dollars from 90 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $47.6 million to $47.6 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $23.9 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 82%. The probability it will have one winner is 16%, two winners, 1.6%, and three winners, 0.1% and of four winners, 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #144

prob987 — Wed, 21 Apr 2004 10:51:25 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 20 million to 28 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 11.4 million to 16 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 14.5 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 90%. The probability of a single winner will be around 9.5%, of two winners, 0.5% and of three winners 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #143

prob987 — Sun, 18 Apr 2004 10:00:51 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/17/04 and has now risen to $90 million annuity dollars from 75 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $41.7 million to $47.6 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $18.1 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 86%. The probability it will have one winner is 13%, two winners, 1%, and three winners, 0.05%.Good luck.

Reply #142

prob987 — Sat, 17 Apr 2004 10:14:58 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from 13 million to 20 million. The cash jackpot has risen from 7.4 million to 11.4 million. Estimated sales will thus be around 12.6 million. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 91%. The probability of a single winner will be around 8.5%, of two winners, 0.4% and of three winners 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #141

prob987 — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 01:51:20 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/13/04 and has now risen to $75 million annuity dollars from 65 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $36.1 million to $41.7 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $17.1 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 88%. The probability it will have one winner is 12%, two winners, 0.9%, and three winners, 0.04%Good luck

Reply #140

prob987 — Wed, 14 Apr 2004 05:22:40 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over and the annuity valued jackpot has risen from ten million to thirteen million. The cash jackpot has risen from 5.8 million to 7.4 million. Experience with the previous 1st rollover suggests that the sales for this lottery will be around 12.2 million dollars. This suggests that the probability of the lottery rolling over again will be 91%. The probability of a single winner will be around 8%, of two winners, 0.4% and of three winners 0.01%.Good luck.

Reply #139

twisted — Tue, 13 Apr 2004 04:05:47 GMT

I think you might be right. Since Colorado just recently joined and their information is in a nice PDF (released on May 15, 2003) I think its #'s might be the real ones.

Reply #138

prob987 — Tue, 13 Apr 2004 03:02:55 GMT

That's a discrepancy. I think I will still stick with Colorado's figures, since Colorado joined powerball more recently and may have better updating. Also Colorado's figures appear in a much more legal type document. Lottoreport.com also gives my figure. Feel free to post probabilities here based on the Minnesota figure. I will still stick with Colorado's values.Thanx though for pointing it out.

Reply #137

twisted — Tue, 13 Apr 2004 02:40:48 GMT

I got the information at the Minnesota Lottery Website. http://www.lottery.state.mn.us/qanda.html Q: Does Minnesota share Powerball money with other states?A: The only money that is shared in color=#0000ffPowerball is the prize money paid to jackpot prize winners-- 58 percent of the prize pool (29 percent of sales). The rest of the revenue from tickets purchased in Minnesota stays in Minneso

Reply #136

prob987 — Tue, 13 Apr 2004 00:20:31 GMT

The figure I posted can be found here: http://www.coloradolottery.com/documents/rules/rule164.pdf, on the official Colorado lottery website. 3http://www.coloradolottery.com/documents/rules/rule164.pdf32.6689%2.6689

Reply #135

prob987 — Tue, 13 Apr 2004 00:10:06 GMT

I have the cash value as being 32.6689% of sales. What is your source for the 29% figure?32.6689%32.6689

Reply #134

twisted — Mon, 12 Apr 2004 15:55:17 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 11, 2004The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/10/04 and has now risen to $65 million annuity dollars from 57 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $31.4 million to $36.1 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $14.4 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89%. The probability it will have one winner is 11%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.3%Good luck!I think there is an... [ More ]

Reply #133

prob987 — Sun, 11 Apr 2004 12:45:31 GMT

The last MM jackpot restart of $10,000,000 had sales of around 14 million.This means, if the lottery behaves the same, that there is a 90% chance of it rolling over; a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of three winner

Reply #132

prob987 — Sun, 11 Apr 2004 12:41:43 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/10/04 and has now risen to $65 million annuity dollars from 57 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $31.4 million to $36.1 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $14.4 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89%. The probability it will have one winner is 11%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.3%Good luck

Reply #131

prob987 — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 02:32:59 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/07/04 and has now risen to $57 illion annuity dollars from 47 milliion annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $26.1 million to $31.4 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $16.2 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 88.7%. The probability it will have one winner is 10.6%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.3%Good luck

Reply #130

prob987 — Wed, 07 Apr 2004 10:02:59 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $90 million to 105 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has risen from 52.6 million dollars to 61.0 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 26.8 million dollars in sales. The probability of another rollover is 82%, for one winner, 16%, for two winners 1.6% and for three winners 0.11%, and four winners, 0.01%. Modelled (crudely) on the last $239 million run, there is a 27% that the lottery will again go that high. and a 12% chance i... [ More ]

Reply #129

prob987 — Sun, 04 Apr 2004 07:18:56 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/03/04 and has now risen to $47 million annuity dollars from $39 million annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $22.1 million to $26.1 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $12.2million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 90%. The probability it will have one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.5%, and three winners, 0.2%Good luck

Reply #128

prob987 — Sun, 04 Apr 2004 00:32:34 GMT

The Megamillions has begun to rise slightly faster than it did during the last run up to its record-breaking $239 million jackpot. Even so, modelling based on that run has some value. I estimate that the probability of meeting that record is today around 23%. The probability of exceeding that jackport is roughly 10%.

Reply #127

prob987 — Sat, 03 Apr 2004 12:38:38 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $76 million to 90 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has risen from 44.7 million dollars to 52.6 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 24.9 million dollars in sales. The probability of another rollover is 85%, for one winner, 14%, for two winners 1.1% and for three winners 0.06%. Good luck.

Reply #126

prob987 — Thu, 01 Apr 2004 03:28:04 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 3/31/04 and has now risen to $39 million annuity dollars from $31 million annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $17.6 million to $22.1 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $13.77 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89%. The probability it will have one winner is 10%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.2%Good luck

Reply #125

prob987 — Wed, 31 Mar 2004 15:17:52 GMT

The MegaMillions continues to track (actually beating it slightly) its behavior in the the last large jackpot, where it rose to $239 million. If it continues to do so, it is possible to make a crude estimate of how likely it is to meet or exceed that figure. The probability of matching (approximately) that figure is now about 20%. The probability of exceeding it is now about 9%. The probability that the jackpot will dventually exceed $100,000,000 is 71%These numbers are derived by taking the... [ More ]

Reply #124

prob987 — Wed, 31 Mar 2004 05:21:49 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $63 million to 75 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has risen from 38.4 million dollars to 44.7 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 19.8 million dollars in sales. The probability of another rollover is 86%, for one winner, 13%, for two winners 0.93% and for three winners 0.05%. Good luck.

Reply #123

prob987 — Sun, 28 Mar 2004 08:49:18 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over and has now risen to $31 million annuity dollars from $25 million annuity dollars. The cash value has increased from $14.1 million to $17.6 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $10.7 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 91%. The probability it will have one winner is 8%, two winners, 0.4%, and three winners, 0.1%Good luck

Reply #122

prob987 — Sat, 27 Mar 2004 08:21:44 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $53 million to 63 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has risen from 32.4 million dollars to 38.4 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 19 million dollars in sales. The probability of another rollover is 87%, for one winner, 12%, for two winners 0.9% and for three winners 0.04%Good luck.

Reply #121

prob987 — Fri, 26 Mar 2004 16:19:52 GMT

The Megamillions jackpots in this particular series of rollovers is slightly larger than the last record breaking (see Jake649's thread) series of rollovers culminating in the $239 million dollar jackpot. Even so, the series now underway is closely tracking the previous run, about $2,000,000 annuity dollars greater on each rollover. This is way probably premature, and very loose, but the probability that the $239 jackpot will be matched is very approximately about 17% over all. The probability... [ More ]

Reply #120

prob987 — Thu, 25 Mar 2004 10:52:56 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over and has now risen to $25 million annuity dollars from $18 million dollars. The cash value has increased from $10.3 million to $14.1 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $11.6 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 91%. The probability it will have one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.4%, and three winners, 0.1%Good luck

Reply #119

prob987 — Wed, 24 Mar 2004 11:16:58 GMT

The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $43 million to 53 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has risen from 26.2 million dollars to 32.4 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 19.5 million sales. The probability of another rollover is 86.5%, for one winner, 12.5%, for two winners 1% and for three winners 0.04%Good luck.

Reply #118

prob987 — Sun, 21 Mar 2004 14:56:45 GMT

BTW, MM is tracking very close to its behavior during the run up to the $239 million dollar jackpot that remains unclaimed. If it continues to maintain this track so, the probability that the current run will go that high is roughly 6% right now. That probability will climb, of course, with each rollover. Were this (still unlikely) dvent to happen, it would occur in about one month's time.Good luck.

Reply #117

prob987 — Sun, 21 Mar 2004 10:34:55 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over and has now risen to $18 million annuity dollars from $12 million dollars. The cash value has increased from $6.7 million to $10.3 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about $11 million in sales. The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 91%. The probability it will have one winner is 8%, two winners, 0.4%, and three winners, 0.1%Good luck

Reply #116

prob987 — Sat, 20 Mar 2004 13:23:59 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot for March 19, 2004 has rolled over again. The annuity jackpot has risen from $36 million to $43 million. The size of the cash value jackpot has risen from $21.9 million to $26.2 million. This implies the lottery is expecting about 13.5 million sales on this draw. The probability that jackpot will roll over again on Tuesday is 90%. The probability of there being one winner is 9%. The probabiliyt of two winners is about 0.5% and the probability of three winners is 0.... [ More ]

Reply #115

prob987 — Thu, 18 Mar 2004 14:40:56 GMT

The Powerball jackpot is has rolled over and is now $12,000,000 annuity dollars. I estimate that this jackpot will have $12.5 million in sales based on experience with early jackpots where the minimum jackpot sizes complicates direct calculation. On this basis the probability that the next jackpot will rollover again is 90%. The probability of there being one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.5% and three winners, 0.02%.Lottobuddy may post small refinements based on history with which I am most l... [ More ]

Reply #114

prob987 — Wed, 17 Mar 2004 13:26:46 GMT

The Megamillions jackport has rolled over, with the cash value rising to 21.9 million from 16.4 million. The annuity value has risen from $27 million to $36 million.The probability of a rollover is 88%. The probability of a single winner is 11%. The probability of two winners is 0.7% and of three winners 0.03%.Good luck

Reply #113

prob987 — Tue, 16 Mar 2004 23:13:10 GMT

Lottobuddy, I have no problem with your numbers, and expect that they are probably a little better than mine. We'll see on your website on Thursday. The expectation values of the early jackpots are extraordinarily low. Jake649 and many other of us had a nice discussion of expectation values on a thread found here. Calculating expectation values was my original reason for looking at the Poisson distribution as applied to lotteries. My pleasure at the revelation provided by this way of lookin... [ More ]

Reply #112

LottoBuddy — Tue, 16 Mar 2004 04:22:38 GMT

Since Powerball's base $5.6 million cash jackpot falls on a Wednesday instead of a busier Saturday, I estimate the sales to be less than 11 million tickets. Looking at the Wednesday, February 11 data, sales for the $7.2 million cash jackpot was only $10,765,848, which was 13% less than the sales for the previous Saturday's base jackpot. But as prob987 implied before, the IMprobability percentages don't change significantly, e.g., P(0) = 91.3% and P(1) = 8.3%.Has anybody bothered to calculate h... [ More ]

Reply #111

prob987 — Mon, 15 Mar 2004 19:14:37 GMT

The Powerball has, of course, been won and the jackpot is once again $10,000,000 annuity dollars. I assume, consistent with the information on Lottobuddy's site, that a $10,000,000 minimum annuity jackpot will represent roughly $12.5 million in sales. On this basis the probability that the next jackpot will rollover again is 90%. The probability of there being one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.5% and three winners, 0.02%.Good luck.

Reply #110

goose — Mon, 15 Mar 2004 01:39:01 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on March 13, 2004The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 3/12/04 and is now $27 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has jumped from $12.1 million dollars to $16.4 million dollars.This means the lottery is projecting 13.6 million sales for this draw: This translates into a 90% probability of a rollover, a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of there being three winners.Good luck.starting to agree!it

Reply #109

goose — Mon, 15 Mar 2004 01:35:51 GMT

Reply #108

Jake649 — Sun, 14 Mar 2004 20:57:10 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBuddy on March 14, 2004By the way, Jake649, I was about to buy a Mass Millions ticket subscription over the phone when the $50 million positive-return jackpot was finally won.LottBuddy,Do you know if they would have sold you a subscription even though you are not a resident of Mass? In Ontario (and I thought all jurisdictions) you had to be resident to buy a subscription.Thanks,Jake

Reply #107

LottoBuddy — Sun, 14 Mar 2004 17:08:45 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #106

prob987 — Sat, 13 Mar 2004 06:36:38 GMT

The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 3/12/04 and is now $27 million annuity dollars. The cash jackpot has jumped from $12.1 million dollars to $16.4 million dollars.This means the lottery is projecting 13.6 million sales for this draw: This translates into a 90% probability of a rollover, a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of there being three winners.Good luck.

Reply #105

Jake649 — Fri, 12 Mar 2004 00:31:42 GMT

Lottobuddy,Where do you get the actual annuity and cash values of the Powerball jackpots that you post on your site?Thanks,Jake