Neural Networks- Applicable to Lottery?

Reply #32

Andrew — Tue, 16 Mar 2004 11:56:41 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on March 07, 2004My question is:If anyone can detect certain reoccurring patterns with data mining software, why won't states running lotteries use similar software to make sure their systems were truly random? I would think if they found such patterns, they would introduce other factors randomly to make the process truly random and the only constants would be the field and combinations sizes.RJOhWhy do you think they keep increasing the odds for some games... [ More ]

Reply #31

hypersoniq — Mon, 15 Mar 2004 22:58:28 GMT

I never had to get past backtesting with this... I kept detailed records, and the numbers picked were almost identical to the excel forecast function, no better, no worse... time to throw NN's on the back burner... but I must say, RAPID development is one very cool plus of the Java based JOONE engine ;-)Data Mining... Neural network based classification has failed on several automated attempts, using both my own modified formulas (on open source excel VBA programs) and using several demo version... [ More ]

Reply #30

Millennium — Sat, 13 Mar 2004 20:45:10 GMT

As I said, I will ignore that feathered foreigner from now on. Even *perfect* English wouldn't help him.

Reply #29

hypersoniq — Fri, 12 Mar 2004 23:03:46 GMT

classification is one difficult task to get any info from.... I may end up doing this by hand, composing a weight matrix based on same-draw AND next draw announcer frequency.Put simply, If a 5 drawn in the first position has been followed in the past by 6,7,9,12,9,3 I will give a heavier weight to a 9 because it happened twice...Also I will look out-of-position because positional announcers are not reliable enough, but if, for instance, a 1 in the first position is often followed by a 41 in t... [ More ]

Reply #28

hypersoniq — Thu, 11 Mar 2004 21:47:20 GMT

no magic at all, I'm leaning towards bias.... look at the 27 as powerball (or lack of it in over 149 drawings)...the number of repeats on separating pb data by wednesdays and saturdays, isolating 10,000,000 drawings from higher jackpots... how the number 20 follows the 35 as pb 5 to 10 drawings later...I have abandoned Quick picks, in favor of one ticket of personal lucky numbers and one ticket based on spreadsheet analysis. $4 per week... IF I manage to get results from this new approach, it... [ More ]

Reply #27

LottoBuddy — Thu, 11 Mar 2004 21:02:50 GMT

hypersoniq, will your neural network be based on the assumption that there are biases in the Powerball draws? Will you record the order that the balls came out like some sites do? Or are you assuming that independently drawn random numbers have some kind of magical repeating pattern that can be predicted

Reply #26

hypersoniq — Wed, 10 Mar 2004 14:32:14 GMT

From the state of the poll results so far...Many views, few votes, fewer replies...Apparently nobody is interested in pursuing this in an open-source sort of way, so I'll not continue further along that track.Final thoughts...Attrasoft demo... no good because you can't see the code. There will be no turn-key solution. Interestingly tho, the layout took the 5 white balls as input and the powerballs as targets, regardless of how I set it up... it had an 18% hit rate, but when it was off, it was... [ More ]

Reply #25

goose — Wed, 10 Mar 2004 11:56:45 GMT

No system can predict a random lottery draw so far

Reply #24

Millennium — Tue, 09 Mar 2004 17:34:52 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBuddy on March 09, 2004No system can predict a random lottery draw.And yet I have predicted winning numbers in the Pick 3. So have others here.

Reply #23

LottoBuddy — Tue, 09 Mar 2004 04:09:55 GMT

No system can predict a random lottery draw. Read http://www.camh.net/egambling/issue2/research :The human mind is not very good at dealing with randomness. Our minds are designed to find order, not to appreciate chaos. Ever notice how easy it is to find faces in clouds? We are wired to look for patterns and find connections, and when we find patterns we interpret them as real. Consequently, many people will see patterns in random numbers. When people see patterns in randomness (e.g., repeated

Reply #22

hypersoniq — Mon, 08 Mar 2004 17:18:24 GMT

perhaps the best order of things is a neural net used for classification (probabilistic, based on bayesian classifiers) and then on to a predictive network... It would appear that choosing the wrong type of network for the task ensures failure, also, the problem itself needs to be clearly stated for any chance at a solution...

Reply #21

hypersoniq — Mon, 08 Mar 2004 16:50:46 GMT

Interesting stuff so far... Still not exactly sure of what is needed, but apparently it's not an Autoassociative NN... In those, if the pattern presented is recognised, it just echoes the pattern back.I have read some interesting intro articles on 2 closely related A.I. methodologies... Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing (both built into JOONE BTW)... they seem to be better than back propagation because they avoid the local minima trap.This won't be an over-nighter... Combining weight ma... [ More ]

Reply #20

BobP — Mon, 08 Mar 2004 00:53:54 GMT

You can have a little fun watching a Neural Net at work here . . .http://www.20q.net/BobP

Reply #19

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 18:15:01 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Millennium on March 07, 2004 Can this help with wetware neural nets? (IE, your own brain skills)Program link(Remember, I am mainly interested in the Pick 3 games.) I can't see it helping unless you document your reasoning at the time for each number selected, then go back and see what you were thinking when successful. Much of what we do with lottery numbers is usually scrapped when it doesn't work... I think better recordkeeping might help to yield some insights late... [ More ]

Reply #18

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 17:58:41 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on March 07, 2004 My question is:If anyone can detect certain reoccurring patterns with data mining software, why won't states running lotteries use similar software to make sure their systems were truly random? I would think if they found such patterns, they would introduce other factors randomly to make the process truly random and the only constants would be the field and combinations sizes.RJOhMaybe you are giving the states too much credit... They have a se... [ More ]

Reply #17

Millennium — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 17:35:03 GMT

Can this help with wetware neural nets? (IE, your own brain skills)Program link(Remember, I am mainly interested in the Pick 3 games.

Reply #16

RJOh — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 16:09:58 GMT

My question is:If anyone can detect certain reoccurring patterns with data mining software, why won't states running lotteries use similar software to make sure their systems were truly random? I would think if they found such patterns, they would introduce other factors randomly to make the process truly random and the only constants would be the field and combinations sizes.RJOh

Reply #15

jimm — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 14:01:52 GMT

Thank You, hypersonic; for the info, on neural networks. I agree, a form of pattern recognition; is needed for the lottery analysis. And, your suggestion of training the synaptic self, is probably a needed addition; to help in working with the data. I work with, usually two forms of system analysis; due to one system cylcing - hot / cold tendency. Observing similarity, between the systems, can provide a grouping, which may provide better results. So, some form of varying the data, may all... [ More ]

Reply #14

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 13:25:07 GMT

NOTE to potential JOONE users... You must have the Java Virtual Machine installed prior to installing JOONE. I had no problems as I already have the latest Java (J2SE) SDK (Software Development Kit) and runtimes installed...For more info on setting up a JAVA programming environment and obtaining the free JAVA SDk and runtimes go here ... http://java.sun.com/j2se

Reply #13

johnph77 — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 12:56:33 GMT

goose -read my signature.

Reply #12

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 12:56:30 GMT

The Jeff Heaton literature goes along with a free open source Java neural net implementation called JOONE (JAVA Object Oriented Neural Engine). Given that it's all free, this would make an ideal starting point. Get the info and free download of JOONE here... http://www.jooneworld.com/index.html

Reply #11

goose — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 12:00:10 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by johnph77 on March 07, 2004 hypersoniq -DAMN, THAT'S A GREAT POST! Hits the nail right on the head! It's how I learned. I've been using spreadsheets for almost 25 years and I'm still learning.But, given all this, any and all predictive systems and methods expounded in Lottery Post and/or any other forum are tools. They are not automatically going to yield winning numbers. They are aids from which one can make a deductive selection of numbers to play in the next lottery... [ More ]

Reply #10

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 11:58:44 GMT

My theory at this point is that information gained from the data mining phase can be used in the training process.

Reply #9

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 11:55:16 GMT

John,Couldn't agree more about guaranteed systems being BS.Before training an artificial neural network to guess the next draw, one use that is quite interesting is Data Mining... From the Jeff Heaton Site...Data mining is a process where large volumes of data are mined for trends and other statistics that might otherwise be overlooked. Very often in data mining the programmer is not particularly sure what final outcome is being sought. Neural networks are often employed in data mining due to... [ More ]

Reply #8

johnph77 — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 11:06:02 GMT

hypersoniq -DAMN, THAT'S A GREAT POST! Hits the nail right on the head! It's how I learned. I've been using spreadsheets for almost 25 years and I'm still learning.But, given all this, any and all predictive systems and methods expounded in Lottery Post and/or any other forum are tools. They are not automatically going to yield winning numbers. They are aids from which one can make a deductive selection of numbers to play in the next lottery. Anyone selling any system that absolutely guarantees... [ More ]

Reply #7

BobP — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 04:47:17 GMT

None of the lottery programers I talked to in the past who played around with fuzzy logic and neural nets wanted to include it in professional commercial lottery software. One of the several Lotto Master software's and Lottery Cracker did, doesn't seem to be anything people got excited over. I tried the Attrasoft for Pick-3 and NeuroLotto for Pick-6 with no luck, but should confess lack of skill and equipment could have doomed the experiment to failure.I suspect you would have to know how to w... [ More ]

Reply #6

hypersoniq — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 03:08:38 GMT

Using somebody elses finished product robs you of the educational experience. It would have been easy to download someone elses excel sheets to keep my lottery data, but I would have missed out on the process of learning excel...

Reply #5

EXCALIBUR — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 01:58:43 GMT

Why don't you try the Attrasoft Predictor Demo and find out

Reply #4

vick — Sun, 07 Mar 2004 00:56:32 GMT

I tried neural network programs on 649 type lottos 5 years ago = NO GOOD, at least for me

Reply #3

hypersoniq — Sat, 06 Mar 2004 22:23:31 GMT

Here is an excerpt from one of the sites that I am currently using to learn about neural networks...Neural networks are particularly adept at solving problems that cannot be expressed as a series of steps. Neural networks are particularly useful for recognizing patterns, classification into groups, series prediction and data mining. Pattern recognition is perhaps the most common use for neural networks. The neural network is presented a pattern. This could be an image, a sound, or any... [ More ]

Reply #2

hypersoniq — Sat, 06 Mar 2004 21:08:16 GMT

For the What is a Neural Network? votes....Neural Network - A member of a class of software that is trained by presenting it examples of input and the corresponding desired output. For example, the input might be a magnetic anomaly and the required output the depth to the source of that anomaly. Training might be conducted using synthetic data, iterating on the examples until satisfactory depth estimates are obtained. Neural networks are general-purpose programs which have applications outsi... [ More ]

Reply #1

Millennium — Sat, 06 Mar 2004 20:42:43 GMT

See The Predictors. URL in original thread.

Neural Networks- Applicable to Lottery?

hypersoniq — Sat, 06 Mar 2004 20:11:58 GMT

In the past few months we have seen just about every type of system presented, discussed, tried, sold and fail... THe only consistent thing about all of them is the lack of viable results and regular hits.I am unimpressed by any systems shown so far, backtested so many pick 3 systems to no avail, we have seen the rise and fall of random synchronization, sums, v-tracs, skips... nothing that can consistently produce winners... I am bored with stats and plan to move on to something different... Art... [ More ]