Best way to predict numbers

Reply #16

plnwebguy — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 13:15:15 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 09, 2004Anyone who wins the lottery beats extraordinary odds. The ratio of numbers of people who win by quick picks and number of people who win by picking their own numbers is probably (I have no data) slightly higher than you would expect from the ratio of quick pick tickets bought to the number of people who pick their own numbers. This is because many people who pick their own numbers do a poor job of expanding the covered field size.This is beca... [ More ]

Reply #15

plnwebguy — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 13:08:07 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by winningdraw on April 09, 2004Let me ask you this - when you check the results online, do you see a lot of winners on the lotto home page who won via a quick pick? I know for the NY lottery it seems everytime I go to http://nylottery.org, and see the winner's profiles, they seem to be quickpicks. If what you're saying is true, these people are beating extraordinary odds, even by getting 5/6 numbers, or something like that.I was going to go through one of these days a... [ More ]

Reply #14

prob987 — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 12:19:02 GMT

Anyone who wins the lottery beats extraordinary odds. The ratio of numbers of people who win by quick picks and number of people who win by picking their own numbers is probably (I have no data) slightly higher than you would expect from the ratio of quick pick tickets bought to the number of people who pick their own numbers. This is because many people who pick their own numbers do a poor job of expanding the covered field size.This is because people tend to play their birthdates and they whe... [ More ]

Reply #13

Jake649 — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 12:13:44 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 08, 2004Yeah, I do. But I think our problem lies in that we are talking about two different situations. I am buying two quickpicks, as described in my original post, to demonstrate that one can in fact routinely experience beating the odds of 1 in 1.8 X 10^16. I am not doing it to see if I can produce two equivalent tickets. The odds of producing a quick pick of arbitrary sequence is indeed exactly equal to winning the lottery. The odds of prod... [ More ]

Reply #12

winningdraw — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 10:46:09 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 08, 2004My system works reasonably well. I win at about the expected rate for the number of tickets I buy.Quick picks can actually fall somewhat below the expected rate under certain circumstances. There is, however small, some probability, equal to the odds of winning, that if you buy two quickpicks, you will actually get exactly the same numbers, for instance, the computer might give you 7-10-13-16-19 with a megaball of 22 twice. In this case y... [ More ]

Reply #11

winningdraw — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 10:41:56 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #10

prob987 — Fri, 09 Apr 2004 00:31:03 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on April 08, 2004prob987,There are two situations.1. What are the odds that the following ticket (1, 12, 23, 32, 41, MB13) is selected twice in a row using quick picks? Answer: (1 in 135,000,000) squared.2. What are the odds that any two quick picks match exactly. Answer: First you buy one quick pick. The odds of getting any combination is 1 in 1 because any combination will do. Then you buy a second ticket where the numbers must match the first ticket, odds o... [ More ]

Reply #9

RJOh — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 21:44:23 GMT

When looking at the last 150 draws of MegaMillions 198 drawings, 75 of these drawings have had all 5 main numbers hit in the previous 21 drawings or less, so I've look at all the previous 21 drawings of the 150 drawings and compared them as short term trends to pick the most common trend amoug them to apply to my next picks, so I have a set of parameters to cover both trends when picking my numbers. Both sets of parameters cover 50%+ of the history.RJOh

Reply #8

hypersoniq — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 19:30:52 GMT

The thing about number frequency trends is I don't usually spot them until it's over...In doing some research on Neural Networks and their underlying formulae, a very interesting concept was presented... (this book is based on actually modelling the process of learning, not NNs for lottery use...) Short Term Memory and Long Term Memory... I think something here can possibly be applied to the biases present in drawing histories...People (myself included) who use entire game histories are using so... [ More ]

Reply #7

Bilhar — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 18:52:00 GMT

Picking numbers. It is not necessarily so, that its the luck of the draw, some numbers are selected more than others on a regular basis, in fact in some studies i have made, one number came up every other day during a certain month, the numbers 11,14,17,19,22 for example won twice, in the Michigan games in the same month, Rolldown and Winfall, Mar 03. Mar 25 other numbers appeared with them, in some cases, some of those same numbers won in Ohio or Ill. not sure, which, I know it... [ More ]

Reply #6

Jake649 — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 18:21:20 GMT

prob987,There are two situations.1. What are the odds that the following ticket (1, 12, 23, 32, 41, MB13) is selected twice in a row using quick picks? Answer: (1 in 135,000,000) squared.2. What are the odds that any two quick picks match exactly. Answer: First you buy one quick pick. The odds of getting any combination is 1 in 1 because any combination will do. Then you buy a second ticket where the numbers must match the first ticket, odds of 1 in 135,000,000. The factor of the two odds is 1 i... [ More ]

Reply #5

prob987 — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 17:04:08 GMT

No, not really Jake, the odds of getting two tickets of any combination is 135,000,000 squared, no matter whether the two tickets are the same or different. The first ticket has odds of 1 in 135,000,000 odds of being generated. At that point, when the first ticket is generated (against extraordinary odds) the second ticket will then have odds of 135,000,000 to one against it. The second is independent of the first ticket though. The nature of the first ticket has no bearing on the nature of

Reply #4

Jake649 — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 16:43:20 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 08, 2004Sometimes I buy two quick picks just for the thrill of beating extraordinary odds. If you buy two megamillions quickpicks, the odds of getting the ticket with exactly those two numbers printed on them is roughly 1.8 X 10^16, or about 3% of the age of the universe measured in seconds. Beating such odds, as you do everytime you buy such a ticket, doesn't get you any money, but it's thrilling nonetheless.prob987,I do not agree with your calcula... [ More ]

Reply #3

prob987 — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 15:59:47 GMT

My system works reasonably well. I win at about the expected rate for the number of tickets I buy.Quick picks can actually fall somewhat below the expected rate under certain circumstances. There is, however small, some probability, equal to the odds of winning, that if you buy two quickpicks, you will actually get exactly the same numbers, for instance, the computer might give you 7-10-13-16-19 with a megaball of 22 twice. In this case you would have beat extraordinary odds, but your chanc... [ More ]

Reply #2

winningdraw — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 14:01:12 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 08, 2004I wrote a program many years ago that maximizes, for the number of tickets purchased, the percentage of (x,y) pairs represented in the universe of such possible pairs.I go forward in the realization that people who claim to predict numbers succeed only through the same dumb luck as do pick quick buyers.Hmm, good point. Since any lotto draw is based on pure random draws, it would seem that a quick pick would be just as accurate. Has this b... [ More ]

Reply #1

prob987 — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 12:53:55 GMT

I wrote a program many years ago that maximizes, for the number of tickets purchased, the percentage of (x,y) pairs represented in the universe of such possible pairs.I go forward in the realization that people who claim to predict numbers succeed only through the same dumb luck as do pick quick buyers.

Best way to predict numbers

winningdraw — Thu, 08 Apr 2004 12:23:09 GMT

I'm trying to gauge how people play jackpot lottery games. Let me explain a little.I'm currently researching what methods people who play jackpot games use to pick their numbers for jackpot games like a state jackpot lotto, powerball, mega millions, etc. For example, do people use patterns, like 45 degree patterns, based on previous results? Do they use sums, or a variant on sums? Do they use birthdays or lucky numbers consistently? Hot versus cold numbers, frequencies, astrology, etc?Any th... [ More ]