Powerball 2004-04-28

Reply #16

prob987 — Wed, 28 Apr 2004 15:03:52 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by ayenowitall on April 27, 2004Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 27, 2004>This means that if you play the same powerball for 154 draws (a year and half) there is a 94.7% chance you will win three dollars. <Prob,Actually, my post was referring to probability of a given number being selected as the PowerBall in a single drawing. I have to wonder exactly what the value is of knowing that the PowerBall has a 94.7% chance of repeating somewhere in a series of 154... [ More ]

Reply #15

JADELottery — Wed, 28 Apr 2004 14:09:40 GMT

aye',The draw occurrence is the draw index number related to the number being analyzed. Here is a sample listing of the first 14 draws for Powerball Version 4:YearMonthDayDraw12345PBPP200210919103842435420021012223264649522852002101638112431374152002101944182025422942002102352141830313652002102661214273339413200210307916192341125200211288153234353442002116991112171923520021191030363840538520021113111823313850205200211161232333540511220021120131421222944332002112314151619214954Looking at the PB,... [ More ]

Reply #14

ayenowitall — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 23:37:07 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on April 27, 2004> the percent probability I'm stating have very little to do with interball probabilities. The percent probabilities I'm presenting are relative to the draw occurrence for each individual number.<Doug,Thanks for clearing up the difference in facets of the PowerBall lottery analysis that we were addressing. What exactly do you mean by draw occurrence for each individual number, and how do the probability percentages that you present relat... [ More ]

Reply #13

ayenowitall — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 23:25:31 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 27, 2004>This means that if you play the same powerball for 154 draws (a year and half) there is a 94.7% chance you will win three dollars. <Prob,Actually, my post was referring to probability of a given number being selected as the PowerBall in a single drawing. I have to wonder exactly what the value is of knowing that the PowerBall has a 94.7% chance of repeating somewhere in a series of 154 draws. As your post pretty well pointed out, it seems to... [ More ]

Reply #12

prob987 — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 18:51:49 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 27, 2004I have seen that theory many times about playing combinations with the highest number less than 32 and playing birthdays, but I've seen many such combinations drawn with no winners at all or only one winner so I don't count it in any strategy that I use.RJOhThis has become much less of an issue with the super lotteries, which drain money from existing independent state lotteries, make their jackpots seem trivial (even when they are actually impre... [ More ]

Reply #11

JADELottery — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 17:51:34 GMT

RJOh,Thank you. I'm 36 today.

Reply #10

JADELottery — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 17:48:52 GMT

aye',You are correct about the equal probability of the PB being drawn for a single drawing. Yes, the probability of any of the 42 numbers for the PB is 2.4% for a single drawing, however, the percent probability I'm stating have very little to do with interball probabilities. The percent probabilities I'm presenting are relative to the draw occurrence for each individual number.

Reply #9

RJOh — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 17:36:12 GMT

I have seen that theory many times about playing combinations with the highest number less than 32 and playing birthdays, but I've seen many such combinations drawn with no winners at all or only one winner so I don't count it in any strategy that I use.RJOh

Reply #8

prob987 — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 17:17:09 GMT

Agreed.I might add that I do in fact use a number stream like that suggested by Doug, although the process by which I arrived at it (it has been constant for many years) had very little bearing on the number of times a particular number was used. The chief variable in the analysis I used was affected the expectation value of the win and not the probability of actually generating the win. I generated my stream by looking at the number of winners at each level in the California lottery (years

Reply #7

RJOh — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 16:40:13 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 27, 2004 I know this is not a popular statement here, but the outcome of the current drawings on the otherhand is not dependent in any way on the outcome of previous lotteries.There have been many statement made at this forum, so far none have prove to be more correct than another except you have to be lucky to win some big money playing the lotteries . We all are here just to exchange ideas and strategies whether good,bad, unproven or statistically... [ More ]

Reply #6

prob987 — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 16:16:17 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 27, 2004Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 27, 2004You could spend 53 dollars and have a 100% probability of getting the powerball, simply by playing 53 tickets, each one having a different powerball. In this case you would save $101 dollars in your quest to have a three dollar (or possibly more) winner.You are confusing PowerBall with MegaMillions, it would only take $42. In the last sixty drawings, the powerball have have repeated in 35 dra... [ More ]

Reply #5

RJOh — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 14:58:24 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 27, 2004You could spend 53 dollars and have a 100% probability of getting the powerball, simply by playing 53 tickets, each one having a different powerball. In this case you would save $101 dollars in your quest to have a three dollar (or possibly more) winner.You are confusing PowerBall with MegaMillions, it would only take $42. In the last sixty drawings, the powerball have have repeated in 35 draws or less 50% of the time, so if I couldn't affor... [ More ]

Reply #4

prob987 — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 12:33:09 GMT

The probability that a particular number will repeat on any given draw is 1/53. To see the probability that a given number will repeat in a series of draws is given by log(1-P)/log(1-1/53). For instance if one is saying that a powerball will repeat with 94.7 probability, the number of draws required to make this statement true is log(1-0.947)/log(1-1/53) = 154 draws. This means that if you play the same powerball for 154 draws (a year and half) there is a 94.7% chance you will win three dolla... [ More ]

Reply #3

ayenowitall — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 10:32:14 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on April 27, 2004You have made a mistake in assuming that the probabilities are mutually exclusive and that by adding the percent probabilities you'll get the total percent probability for both dvents; this is not the case.The probabilities are independent of each other.Also, there is a mistake in logic, because, only one number can be drawn for the Powerball PB, either 28 or 12 could be drawn not both.Doug,Thanks for taking the time to respond. I've long... [ More ]

Reply #2

JADELottery — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 05:21:08 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by ayenowitall on April 26, 2004Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on April 26, 200428 is a repeating number.The PB last repeated itself on 2003-02-22.>The probability that the PB will repeat is 94.7%.<12 is a constant number.The number 12 has not been drawn as the PB since 2002-10-30.>The probability that 12 will be drawn as the PB is 97.6%.<Doug,You seem like a fairly serious lottery analyst, but I really don't quite understand all the concepts you put forth in yo... [ More ]

Reply #1

ayenowitall — Tue, 27 Apr 2004 01:15:35 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on April 26, 200428 is a repeating number.The PB last repeated itself on 2003-02-22.>The probability that the PB will repeat is 94.7%.<12 is a constant number.The number 12 has not been drawn as the PB since 2002-10-30.>The probability that 12 will be drawn as the PB is 97.6%.<Doug,You seem like a fairly serious lottery analyst, but I really don't quite understand all the concepts you put forth in your post. One thing that really puzzles me is that you ass... [ More ]

Powerball 2004-04-28

JADELottery — Mon, 26 Apr 2004 21:35:23 GMT

Use one of these suggested numbers as the PB: 12, 15, 17, or 2828 is a repeating number.The PB last repeated itself on 2003-02-22.The probability that the PB will repeat is 94.7%.The PB repeat has gone through 2.9 cycles of it's average occurrence and 4.2 cycles of it's semi-average occurrence.15 is a predicted number based on previous draw occurrence.17 is a 1st order work number.12 is a constant number.The number 12 has not been drawn as the PB since 2002-10-30.The probability that 12 will be... [ More ]