Probability formula Independent events

Reply #8

fenris — Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:44:45 GMT

Sorry to intrude, but I found this thread interesting.Win D, would this be correct for a pick 3 type lottery?What the first table represents is the number of straight singles, doubles and tripples in the pick 3 game. The second table takes their probability and uses the formula you presented to calculate the odds of a double appearing in consecutive draws. I am wondering if I have done the math correctly?According to my calculations, a double has a 7.29% chance of showing up after a double has b... [ More ]

Reply #7

WIN D — Mon, 24 May 2004 05:24:24 GMT

For those folks that would like to see the chances of success in achieving 10 consecutive outcomes of equally like dvents expressed in formula this is it. Keep in mind that an dvent can be a contest of one time or 10 times. There is a lot of confusion and distortion that arises from this simple misunderstanding. an dvent = 1 contest or trial or an dvent = 10 contest or ( n contest or trials) The bi... [ More ]

Reply #6

Colin F — Mon, 17 May 2004 20:53:24 GMT

rdarmandI think you put your case very well. It's a pleasure to read a well thought out answer and even though I don't agree with you I hope you continue to engage me and others who believe we can change the odds a bit.QWEST46 (Jason)There are a core of members here, some regular posters others pretty quiet who have achieved success and who have knowledge that they keep to themselves. I reveal a bit but I sometimes sense that there is a member there (the inner circle) wagging his finger and sile... [ More ]

Reply #5

QWEST46 — Mon, 17 May 2004 18:43:02 GMT

Hey collin, i know how u feel when people don't understand. Just be glad that not everyone in the world understand what we do. It's good that there are people like r rdarmond. We wouldn't want too many people to know what we know and have an advantage in games like we do. Imagine if almost everyone knew how to win more than lose. Basically, everyone would be winning (less money for us if it's a pari-mutuel state, if it's a fixed payout then the state takes its's 50% cut reguardless and the payou... [ More ]

Reply #4

rdarmand — Mon, 17 May 2004 17:37:21 GMT

Hi, Colin,I'm not

Reply #3

Colin F — Mon, 17 May 2004 07:55:05 GMT

rdarmandMember #677September 04, 200216 PostsOfflineWhere you been? Anyway, at last we've got a Mathematician to tussle with.The 1 coin flipping I think most of us know about. In this simple case where it's H50 the complement which must be equal is T50 so 50/50.But the probability of getting twenty heads in a row tossing a coin is less than 1 in a million (1/1048576).Given this my question is if you came across a coin tossing competion where you were acquainted with the fact that twenty heads ha... [ More ]

Reply #2

rdarmand — Mon, 17 May 2004 04:58:24 GMT

It doesn't matter whether the coin flip has come up Heads the last 1,000 times you've flipped it. The odds of it coming up Tails on the next flip are still 50/50.Assuming that past flips have anything to do with future ones is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy. See the following page at Dr. Math for more info:http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/62485.html

Reply #1

WIN D — Wed, 12 May 2004 12:17:48 GMT

Here is the Chances Are Chart to figure your chances on these 50/50 groups. 1 in 2 2 in 4 3 in 8 4 in 16 ....most Stinkers flip back the other way here..if they make it here 5 in 32 ....* This is where I miss alot. I wait to long for the next safer one. 6 in 64 ......pretty safe place to start a Trap. 7 in 128......rare 8 in 256......very rare 9 in 512......lucky if you see one of these a year 10 in 1024...almost never 11 in 2048 ...It's a rigged game! Call the cops..LOL 12 in 4096 13 in 8... [ More ]

Probability formula Independent events

WIN D — Wed, 12 May 2004 12:08:13 GMT

The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events states that if several dvents, A1, A2, ..., An, are independent, then P(A1 A2 ... An) = P(A1) * P(A2) * ... * P(An).What does this mean? 50/50Applied to coins, A1 can be the dvent of getting a heads on the first flip of the coin. A2 is the dvent of getting a heads on the second flip of the coin. An is the dvent of getting a heads on the nth flip of the coin. Since the probability of each dvent is 1/2... [ More ]