cold numbers and probability PICK 3/4

Reply #5

Bertil — Mon, 07 Jun 2004 00:02:23 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on June 06, 2004Bertile^N/10?Sounds kinda interesting, please elaborate on this formula a little more so i may check it in my history. The formula yields a poor approximation for digits but a very good one for any 2-digit or longer game, such as Pick3. It is an approximation to the binimial. While I've your attention, allow me to correct my reference to 15 digit trial. It would yield 2.08 missing digits but I had in mind an 18 dig... [ More ]

Reply #4

Thoth — Sun, 06 Jun 2004 23:23:35 GMT

Bertile^N/10?Sounds kinda interesting, please elaborate on this formula a little more so i may check it in my history.

Reply #3

Bertil — Sun, 06 Jun 2004 12:15:00 GMT

In his book How to Win More N.Henze offers the formula for residual numbers after N draws :e^N/10. This would yield 11.08% for digits drawn 22 times. So which formula should we use? Neither formula will tell us which specific digit remains not drawn. Thus the calculations by Toth would seem to be invalid.One way to illustrate the problem is to look at 15 drawings in a random numbers table. Just go down any column and record how may digits are missing. On average over 100 trials there will be 1... [ More ]

Reply #2

Colin F — Sun, 06 Jun 2004 09:01:27 GMT

ThothBrave and true. I'm so focussed on getting something usefull on my website that I've just been looking lately. But I couldn't resist putting in a word for your Post.This is an area where the inflexible text book fundamentalists just won't attribute any usefullness to looking at the previous history. Sure, they are independent dvents but this does not forbid us from examining it, making the association ourselves and coming up with empirical results and saying the orthodox maths is not in tun... [ More ]

Reply #1

Prometheus1 — Sun, 06 Jun 2004 07:33:33 GMT

Excellent post, and very informative. No fun for the protagonist however. You backed up your statements with empirical data and that isn't fair. That will cause them to slow down and force them to think. Of course, that has never stopped them before. They have been able to avoid thinking about probability up till now. They just can't seem to make it past the Vail from odds to Probability. That's the Gambler's Fallacy you know. Lions and Tigers and Bears...Oh no

cold numbers and probability PICK 3/4

Thoth — Sun, 06 Jun 2004 05:56:21 GMT

It is interesting to note that the probability for a digit to NOT BE DRAWN for 22 consecutive games in a particular position is 9.8477%.(1-P)^22This would seem to suggest that the probability for any digit to not be drawn within 22 consecutive games is worse than its individual probability (10% or 1/10) of being drawn in any one drawing.---For those of you who like to say The Balls Have No Memory consider this: In the Pick 3, any ball that has not been drawn for 20 consecutive games is 2 times... [ More ]