The Meaning of Random DrawingPrev TopicNext Topic

• RJOh

  

  100

  mid-Ohio
  United States
  Member #9
  March 24, 2001
  20,272 Posts
  Offline
  May 17, 2006, 2:47 pm

  ▲▼

  The dictionary definitions of randomness emphasize the notion of apparent absence of cause, planning, or design, a lack of method or system, or accidental, haphazard. Statistical definitions involve the inability to predict outcomes or to find any pattern in a series of outcomes.

  However, all lotteries have a fixed (planned and designed) number of possible outcomes so the results of their drawings are not accidental or haphazard but simply hard to predict because of the number of possible outcomes.  For lotteries, random has been defined as having a lot of possible outcomes and avoiding repeating them. 

  I believe by observations one can eliminate many of the possible outcomes and thus increase the odds of predicting the actual outcome. 

  Think of a person flipping a coin 10 times and coming up with head every time even though the odds are suppose to be 50/50 of coming up tail.  If you were betting on the next flip, would you bet head or tail?  Some people would bet tail because the odds are suppose to be 50/50 and tail hasn't come up yet, but it makes sense to me to bet head because the flips have not been 50/50 and head seems to be the preferred outcome.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• four4me

  

  MD
  United States
  Member #1,701
  June 18, 2003
  10,731 Posts
  Offline
  May 17, 2006, 3:32 pm

  ▲▼

  Rip wrote:

  A person who wants to argue the numbers are random would need to explain,"Here's how the same people manage to end up at the top of the LP predictions statistics through thousands of draws."

   

  Seems to me you've hit on the key element for a practical definition of randomness:

  ---

  Rip yes I read that post and didn't want to comment but I will now the stats you showed for those predictors were for all game types. Not match 5's And in looking at those stats you posted Rick G is the only person who broke even or is close to it. All others are in the hole so to speak as they have theoretically spent far more than they won. While I agree that Rick is doing good with his predictions. I think he puts a lot of effort into studying the numbers and selects his picks according.

  lottomoke has virtually used the same picks for every draw almost since he first started posting and post the same picks for all states while he is doing great in some states there are many days he isn't doing so hot in and the main reason is he is leaving out numbers from 1 to 8 i think and 29 thru 39 which account for about 1/3 of all the additional numbers that are being drawing in all states every day. I don't want to argue his method just pointing out a few details. Spending 50 bucks a pop to win maybe 15 dollars a day don't cut it with me. And while hitting 4 out of 5 ain't a bad day those days aren't gonna happen all the time using the same 50 picks every day for an individual state.

  Rjoh only posts once in a while and does a great job also because of the work involved in selecting picks and the program used is a good one.

  These are a few examples of differences in predicting methods. Around the first of the month I did a weeks worth of test runs with keno and such and used the same random selections for various states. I didn't do great but I didn't do bad either.

  As with any game it's all about knowing or a gut feeling with what numbers might come out and using whatever system works for a particular person.

  I hope you understand that I have tried any number of things to win pick 3/4/5/6 and keno games and no matter how much I studied and finagled the numbers I have yet to win a match 5/6 jackpot. Been close 3 out of 5 and 4 out of 5 even 5 out of 6 for some lotto draws. And jackpot escaped me either because the wheel had all the numbers but I didn't spend enough to capture the jackpot. And all the numbers I selected were right but not on the same lines.
  
• justxploring

  

  Wandering Aimlessly
  United States
  Member #25,359
  November 5, 2005
  4,461 Posts
  Offline
  May 17, 2006, 8:07 pm

  ▲▼

  "Think of a person flipping a coin 10 times and coming up with head every time even though the odds are suppose to be 50/50 of coming up tail.  If you were betting on the next flip, would you bet head or tail?  Some people would bet tail because the odds are suppose to be 50/50 and tail hasn't come up yet, but it makes sense to me to bet head because the flips have not been 50/50 and head seems to be the preferred outcome." RJOh

  Great analogy!  I would probably bet on tail, but you do make sense. Maybe that's why I lost at roulette when I was in Vegas years ago, although it's really not 50/50 because of the 0 and 00. I kept thinking that red couldn't possibly come up over and over and over again, but it did until I ran out of chips!  But what about the fact that the lottery keeps changing the ballset? Isn't that like saying you flipped the coin and it came up heads 10 times and then you reached into your poclet and flipped another coin? So the past history doesn't even come into play. Isn't it like starting all over again?  I'm clueless when it comes to stuff like this, so your comments are always welcome.
• RJOh

  

  100

  mid-Ohio
  United States
  Member #9
  March 24, 2001
  20,272 Posts
  Offline
  May 17, 2006, 10:42 pm

  ▲▼

  I realized the balls may be a different set, but there's nothing I can do about that.  I assume that balls were changed in the past and effected what I've observed so if I continued to observe the reoccurring of an event then changing the balls must not effect it.

  For example when I play MegaMillion, I can't afford to play all the megaballs so I definitely don't play 25 because it has not come up in the last 165 drawings.  90% of winning megaballs have been drawn in the previous 125 drawings, so for the last 40 drawings I've increase my odds of hitting the megaball by excluding 25.  I suspect that the megaballs have been changed, but the change hasn't effected 25 not showing up.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• Shane3

  

  Maryland
  United States
  Member #35,589
  March 20, 2006
  185 Posts
  Offline
  May 18, 2006, 9:44 am

  ▲▼

  Here is my point regarding this matter of randomness. Randomness must be naturally occuring, without purposeful interference from an outside source. Both Powerball and MegaMillions lead the public to believe that to match all 5 numbers the odds are.....1 in 3,819,816 for MegaMillion and 1 in 3,478,761 for Powerball. Then the odds increase when you muliply each by the number Megaballs or Powerballs.

  If they do not ensure that each ball weighs the same.....so that they have to change to various ball sets.....then their stated odds are erroneous.

  What are the odds of me running the 100 meters dash in 10.5 seconds? Lets say 1 in 25 chance(used to be 1 in 1  ). Now what if the officials keep changing the timers, with some timers slower than others....then wouldn't you say the odds of me running in 10.5 significantly is enlarged because of this purposeful outside interference?

  My simple point is....if they are going to throw these astronomical odds at us...then at least make the odds real. Make sure ALL balls weigh the same whatever ball set is used, because by varying the the ball sets with different ball sizes, then they are deceptively increasing the already astronmical level of difficulty it takes to win.

  To be honest with the public and continue their current practice then they should factor in their ballset manipulations in the odds, so that we have the correct information.

  Just tell me to my face that you are screwing me and let me decide if I want to be screwed....you never know I might still enjoy it!
• konane

  

  USA
  United States
  Member #1,265
  March 13, 2003
  9,070 Posts
  Offline
  May 18, 2006, 10:15 am

  ▲▼
  Quote: Originally posted by Shane3 on May 18, 2006

  Here is my point regarding this matter of randomness. Randomness must be naturally occuring, without purposeful interference from an outside source. Both Powerball and MegaMillions lead the public to believe that to match all 5 numbers the odds are.....1 in 3,819,816 for MegaMillion and 1 in 3,478,761 for Powerball. Then the odds increase when you muliply each by the number Megaballs or Powerballs.

  If they do not ensure that each ball weighs the same.....so that they have to change to various ball sets.....then their stated odds are erroneous.

  What are the odds of me running the 100 meters dash in 10.5 seconds? Lets say 1 in 25 chance(used to be 1 in 1  ). Now what if the officials keep changing the timers, with some timers slower than others....then wouldn't you say the odds of me running in 10.5 significantly is enlarged because of this purposeful outside interference?

  My simple point is....if they are going to throw these astronomical odds at us...then at least make the odds real. Make sure ALL balls weigh the same whatever ball set is used, because by varying the the ball sets with different ball sizes, then they are deceptively increasing the already astronmical level of difficulty it takes to win.

  To be honest with the public and continue their current practice then they should factor in their ballset manipulations in the odds, so that we have the correct information.

  Just tell me to my face that you are screwing me and let me decide if I want to be screwed....you never know I might still enjoy it!

  Each ball in each ballset is weighed and each has to be within a very close tolerance weight of each other. 

  When ballsets are selected and put into the machines for each pre and post test they are handled with gloves to prevent even body oils from throwing off their weights.

  The above I've read several times which seems to be SOP for all lotteries.

  However, no matter how carefully they handle those balls, they do manage to exhibit certain behaviors such as affinities with certain numbers, skips, etc., which lotteries understand but can not control no matter how many ballsets or machines they use. 

  I've seen that strategy backfire in Georgia Fantasy 5 several years back when an excessive amount of ballsets was being used and numbers would all but repeat within a few draws.  It's also happened in Cash 3 & 4, with back to back same draws, but not in quite awhile.

  Those things are what seasoned players key into when coming up with their various systems to predict numbers.

  Have fun and the best of luck to everyone!
• four4me

  

  MD
  United States
  Member #1,701
  June 18, 2003
  10,731 Posts
  Offline
  May 18, 2006, 11:29 am

  ▲▼

  Close observations on my end of MM shows that they seem to be rotating 3 ball sets possibly 4. If you dissect each drawing since the new changes were made you can see from week to week from which balls were drawn that they fit into 3 groups. And a 4th group is mixed inbetween all three groups. I call that group the wandering group, balls that don't follow a specific grouping. Split all the numbers in the mm drawings into three groups and see where the most balls fell in each group.

  Usually 3/4balls are allways in one group of the three and the other 2 balls are outside the group.

  What i'm saying is i take some blank cards and put the winning numbers on each card from week to week and after the many drawings i was/am able to see where the balls are falling from week to week. You can make a chart like a MM card in excell and do the same thing. Hope this help someone. 
• Shane3

  

  Maryland
  United States
  Member #35,589
  March 20, 2006
  185 Posts
  Offline
  May 18, 2006, 1:59 pm

  ▲▼

  I appreciate the help Four4me......but I have just decided that if MM is gonna make it that much more difficult to win by messing with the ball sets then I am just going to go to $5 each drawing and stop the insane madness of spending an average of $250 to $300 per drawing for the last 3 months.

  The last drawing was the camel that broke that back. I have been playing the number 48 on every single ticket for the last 12 drawings. I switched on Wednesday and what do you know..... 48 showed up now.....I didn't get the mega ball but I did have the 5 numbers, if I had played it on Wednesday.

  So I think $5 is as good as $300......
• four4me

  

  MD
  United States
  Member #1,701
  June 18, 2003
  10,731 Posts
  Offline
  May 18, 2006, 3:52 pm

  ▲▼

  Shane3 i usually just get i qpick and 4 tickets with my personal numbers. When the pot gets up to 20 mill i somtimes get 20 dollars worth of tickets all together.

  Todd has some good wheels on this site and if you think you have an idea of what numbers might come out, save up for the big pot and run one of his wheels. you just might match all 5 if not all six. 

  Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                 I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.