Pick 3 and The Upper ExtremePrev TopicNext Topic

• Thoth

  

  Findlay, Ohio
  United States
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  May 28, 2004
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  Sep 28, 2006, 3:16 am

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  In Illinois the number 825 last hit straight on 6/29/06.  The last time it hit before that was exactly 10,684 consecutive games prior on 12/27/1987.  As far as I know, this is the longest skip for a straight Pick 3 number anywhere on record.  Most states don't even have this many games to their entire history yet.  Breaking this extended skip down into other observations will show how it was at the upper extreme end of long-out probability.

   

  Between the hits on 12/27/87 and 6/29/06 the following occurred:  

   

  • Front Pair 82X was drawn 99 times without the 5 having been in position-three.  Finally, on the 100th appearances of 82X the straight 825 was drawn again when 5 fell in position-three.
    
    
  • Back Pair X25 was drawn 96 times without 8 as the position-one digit.  On the 97th appearances it fell with the 8, producing the 825.
    
    
  • Split pair 8X5 was drawn 97 times without the 2 in the middle (Position-two). Finally, on its 98th appearance it brought about 825.

   

  From this you can divulge how pairs drawn in conjunction with particular digits will follow and closely adhere to the probability apex of the true 10%-even when distributed across more than 10,000 draws.  The rarity of this huge skip is compounded even more when you look at the individual pairs and how many consecutive times each missed its 10% chance to produce the 825 straight.  Anyone who has really looked at the performance of individual digits by position will know how rare it is to see a digit skip for 80 to 90 draws.  Breaking 100 draws is extremely rare, and as far as I know, no digit has made it out much more than 110 games (if any).

   

  The individual pairs also seem to follow suit as well.  Imagine your waiting for front pair 08X to be drawn.  How many times can the 0 be drawn in position-one without the digit 8 being drawn position-two?  The data (and math) suggests that the upper extreme for such an event is around 100 times.  Off the top of my head, I know that the front pair 08X once had a skip of about 1,048 games in Ohio.  The expected statistical frequency for 0 to hit in position-one for those 1,048 consecutive games is about 104 hits.  Each of those 104 hits represents a 10% chance where 8 could have been drawn in position-two, which would have produced the 08X front pair conjunction.  Here again we see the upper extreme for 10% go into action as it almost magically forces the pair to fall

   

  LOG (1-0.99999) / LOG (1-0.1) = 109.27 Trials

   

  OR

   

   1-(9^109/10^109) = .99999, which is 99.999%

   

  Many other long outs have respected the same set of pseudo-boundaries and you can bet that most others will in the future.  It will be interesting to see how the "boxed pairs" will stack up to the extreme.  More to follow...

  ~Probability=Odds in Motion~
• WIN D

  

  Stone Mountain*Georgia
  United States
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  November 2, 2002
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  Sep 28, 2006, 8:17 am

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  Thoth..... Thank you for such great post such as this. Many would enjoy seeing more of your views and research on your Blog as well. I sure would.

   It is enjoyable to read your very entertaining and interesting work....and always with great perspectives.

  

   

   

  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                         Win d    
• Badger

  

  Wisconsin
  United States
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  March 27, 2003
  1,508 Posts
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  Sep 28, 2006, 8:31 am

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  Very interesting post, Thoth. Thanks.

  It was one obscenely ridiculous "skip".  Statistics are usually all we have to go by, but sometimes they are no better than throwing chicken entrails on the floor and reading those. In the end, the longer I look at the P3 and P4, the more it seems that what combination you pick to play isn't as relevant as when you play it.  Maybe what we need to understand is the exact definition of "luck".

  ============

  How can you tell if a politician is lying?

  Answer: His lips are moving.
• floridian

  

  United States
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  August 28, 2006
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  Sep 28, 2006, 9:12 am

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  Man!!

  With skips like that I am going to have to figure out a way to live a lot longer, if I am going to continue to play.  It sure looks like you have to have a lot of patience to play the Illinois Lottery games.

   

  Floridian
• floridian

  

  United States
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  August 28, 2006
  335 Posts
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  Sep 28, 2006, 9:29 am

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  In response to Thoth

  Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on Sep 28, 2006

  In Illinois the number 825 last hit straight on 6/29/06.  The last time it hit before that was exactly 10,684 consecutive games prior on 12/27/1987.  As far as I know, this is the longest skip for a straight Pick 3 number anywhere on record.  Most states don't even have this many games to their entire history yet.  Breaking this extended skip down into other observations will show how it was at the upper extreme end of long-out probability.

   

  Between the hits on 12/27/87 and 6/29/06 the following occurred:  

   

  • Front Pair 82X was drawn 99 times without the 5 having been in position-three.  Finally, on the 100th appearances of 82X the straight 825 was drawn again when 5 fell in position-three.
    
    
  • Back Pair X25 was drawn 96 times without 8 as the position-one digit.  On the 97th appearances it fell with the 8, producing the 825.
    
    
  • Split pair 8X5 was drawn 97 times without the 2 in the middle (Position-two). Finally, on its 98th appearance it brought about 825.

   

  From this you can divulge how pairs drawn in conjunction with particular digits will follow and closely adhere to the probability apex of the true 10%-even when distributed across more than 10,000 draws.  The rarity of this huge skip is compounded even more when you look at the individual pairs and how many consecutive times each missed its 10% chance to produce the 825 straight.  Anyone who has really looked at the performance of individual digits by position will know how rare it is to see a digit skip for 80 to 90 draws.  Breaking 100 draws is extremely rare, and as far as I know, no digit has made it out much more than 110 games (if any).

   

  The individual pairs also seem to follow suit as well.  Imagine your waiting for front pair 08X to be drawn.  How many times can the 0 be drawn in position-one without the digit 8 being drawn position-two?  The data (and math) suggests that the upper extreme for such an event is around 100 times.  Off the top of my head, I know that the front pair 08X once had a skip of about 1,048 games in Ohio.  The expected statistical frequency for 0 to hit in position-one for those 1,048 consecutive games is about 104 hits.  Each of those 104 hits represents a 10% chance where 8 could have been drawn in position-two, which would have produced the 08X front pair conjunction.  Here again we see the upper extreme for 10% go into action as it almost magically forces the pair to fall

   

  LOG (1-0.99999) / LOG (1-0.1) = 109.27 Trials

   

  OR

   

   1-(9^109/10^109) = .99999, which is 99.999%

   

  Many other long outs have respected the same set of pseudo-boundaries and you can bet that most others will in the future.  It will be interesting to see how the "boxed pairs" will stack up to the extreme.  More to follow...

  These may be dumb questions but I am new at this (only a member since August) and not very Lotto smart yet.

  Is there any rule of thumb as to how many draws one might use to establish a pattern for the way numbers hit?

  Is there any rule of thumb for the way numbers hit  ie, every x draws one might expect all even or all odd numbers or mixed?  Or is everythning so random you pays your money you takes your chances?

  I  have an example of the 026 number group that has not hit in almost 650 draws but I do not have any idea how to determine when it might hit and in what form it would take.

  Like I say I am new at this but still trying.

  Floridian
• Thoth

  

  Findlay, Ohio
  United States
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  May 28, 2004
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  Sep 28, 2006, 12:36 pm

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  In response to WIN D

  Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on Sep 28, 2006

  Thoth..... Thank you for such great post such as this. Many would enjoy seeing more of your views and research on your Blog as well. I sure would.

   It is enjoyable to read your very entertaining and interesting work....and always with great perspectives.

  Thanks Win D,

  I really do need to find more time to post.  I have tons of info but unfortunately I have very little time to sit down and share it on here.   

  ~Probability=Odds in Motion~
• Dr Lottery

  

  Albany,Georgia
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  August 24, 2006
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  Sep 28, 2006, 12:40 pm

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  In response to Thoth

  Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on Sep 28, 2006

  Thanks Win D,

  I really do need to find more time to post.  I have tons of info but unfortunately I have very little time to sit down and share it on here.   

  what a wait
• Thoth

  

  Findlay, Ohio
  United States
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  May 28, 2004
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  Sep 28, 2006, 12:50 pm

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  In response to floridian

  Quote: Originally posted by floridian on Sep 28, 2006

  These may be dumb questions but I am new at this (only a member since August) and not very Lotto smart yet.

  Is there any rule of thumb as to how many draws one might use to establish a pattern for the way numbers hit?

  Is there any rule of thumb for the way numbers hit  ie, every x draws one might expect all even or all odd numbers or mixed?  Or is everythning so random you pays your money you takes your chances?

  I  have an example of the 026 number group that has not hit in almost 650 draws but I do not have any idea how to determine when it might hit and in what form it would take.

  Like I say I am new at this but still trying.

  Floridian

  There is actually a set of rules as to how the numbers will hit—and actually they are very accurate.  However, these rules will not tell you exactly when a particular number will be drawn.  They will only tell you what the probability is over the course of a measured amount of games.

  If the 026 number group you mentioned is 026 boxed or "any order" then 650 draws is ripe for a hit, but then again, it could make it out 800 games or more.  The upper extreme for a boxed no-match number is 1,913 consecutive games for it to have the 99.999% chance of having occurred.

  ~Probability=Odds in Motion~
• Thoth

  

  Findlay, Ohio
  United States
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  Sep 28, 2006, 1:14 pm

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  In response to floridian

  Quote: Originally posted by floridian on Sep 28, 2006

  Man!!

  With skips like that I am going to have to figure out a way to live a lot longer, if I am going to continue to play.  It sure looks like you have to have a lot of patience to play the Illinois Lottery games.

   

  Floridian

  Actually you may need the same patience for all the states Pick 3 games.  The straight 825 skipping over 10,600 games in Illinois is not really such an anomolly considering it has 13,552 games to its history: the more draws a state has the more likely the improbable is to occur.

  Every state with a good amount of draws behind it SHOULD or will most likely have a few numbers out past 6000 games.   

  ~Probability=Odds in Motion~
• Thoth

  

  Findlay, Ohio
  United States
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  May 28, 2004
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  Sep 29, 2006, 12:29 am

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  In response to Badger

  Quote: Originally posted by Badger on Sep 28, 2006

  Very interesting post, Thoth. Thanks.

  It was one obscenely ridiculous "skip".  Statistics are usually all we have to go by, but sometimes they are no better than throwing chicken entrails on the floor and reading those. In the end, the longer I look at the P3 and P4, the more it seems that what combination you pick to play isn't as relevant as when you play it.  Maybe what we need to understand is the exact definition of "luck".

  "...sometimes they are no better than throwing chicken entrails on the floor and reading those"

  LOL hmm...I havent tried voodoo yet.

  ~Probability=Odds in Motion~
• WIN D

  

  Stone Mountain*Georgia
  United States
  Member #828
  November 2, 2002
  10,491 Posts
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  Sep 29, 2006, 7:26 am

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   Thoth quote...

  "There is actually a set of rules as to how the numbers will hit—and actually they are very accurate.  However, these rules will not tell you exactly when a particular number will be drawn.  They will only tell you what the probability is over the course of a measured amount of games.

  If the 026 number group you mentioned is 026 boxed or "any order" then 650 draws is ripe for a hit, but then again, it could make it out 800 games or more.  The upper extreme for a boxed no-match number is 1,913 consecutive games for it to have the 99.999% chance of having occurred" 

   Thoth....  Sure would enjoy hearing more about this. What is it about 1,913 consecutive games ? 

    This is really very good. Patience usually means folks look at their watches.... where as in Pick 3 ...it should be their calender. LOL   

   It is so fascinating to realize there are pressure points....or conjunctions that these numbers must make it past each time .....in order to go on to be great "Stinkers." 

  If we ever want to get good trapping numbers......those conjunctions are very necessary times to know and study.      

   

     

  

   

   

  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                         Win d    
• takeitez

  

  Carters Lake, Ga.
  United States
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  June 29, 2004
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  Sep 29, 2006, 8:43 am

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  The people in charge of the great on line pay out of 899 to 1, know most lotto players will not have the patience to play the same exact number for 2 or 3 years and not miss a day or ever play another number.

  ez

               ........ in the long run........
• CARBOB

  

  COLUMBUS,GA.
  United States
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  June 3, 2004
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  Oct 1, 2006, 7:26 am

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  In response to Thoth

  Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on Sep 28, 2006

  There is actually a set of rules as to how the numbers will hit—and actually they are very accurate.  However, these rules will not tell you exactly when a particular number will be drawn.  They will only tell you what the probability is over the course of a measured amount of games.

  If the 026 number group you mentioned is 026 boxed or "any order" then 650 draws is ripe for a hit, but then again, it could make it out 800 games or more.  The upper extreme for a boxed no-match number is 1,913 consecutive games for it to have the 99.999% chance of having occurred.

  Thoth, do you have any stats for allstates combined draws? I have the combo 705 listed as the most out, 8467 skips.

  Thanks
• Rick G

  

  FEMA Region V Camp #21
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  July 27, 2002
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  Oct 1, 2006, 6:13 pm

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  Thanks Thoth....interesting thread.  I'm familiar with the 825 in IL as many members know.  I noticed the skip over a year before it finally played.  Had I played it every drawing during that year I would have lost over $300.  Progression betting would have put me in the poorhouse.

  That's why I don't play overdue situations.  There's a fine line between overdue and Antarctica ice cold.  10,000 draws is a good example of that.  Ten times overdue.  Most people like to start playing something when it's three times overdue.  In this example that would have been 7000 losses.

  Thanks for the charts. 

  Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).
  

  
  
• Thoth

  

  Findlay, Ohio
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  Oct 1, 2006, 8:09 pm

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  In response to CARBOB

  Quote: Originally posted by CARBOB on Oct 1, 2006

  Thoth, do you have any stats for allstates combined draws? I have the combo 705 listed as the most out, 8467 skips.

  Thanks

  I have ten or so states that i use to run tests on.  I havent really ever tracked all the states at once, but I did track 5 for a while for my "Penta-State System".  Im not sure how you track your states or count your skips but 705 hit staight in Ohio only 231 consecutive games ago.  This was the evening draw on 5-19-06.

  ~Probability=Odds in Motion~