N.C. Lottery sales fall short

Dec 26, 2006, 10:46 am (25 comments)

North Carolina Lottery

North Carolina's lottery sales have tumbled since July, and the game's director predicts that — under the best scenario — the lottery will generate $75 million less for education than projected in the current state budget.

The sales of numbers games, such as Powerball and Cash 5, are up slightly since July, but scratch-and-win ticket sales have plummeted. Scratch, or instant, tickets are supposed to provide the growth in lotteries nationally, but in North Carolina, sales shrank from $52 million in July to $38 million in November.

"We are not on track at this point," said Tom Shaheen, the N.C. Education Lottery's executive director.

Shaheen said he has no clear explanation for the downturn.

But he theorized that sales could suffer because consumers are spending more on gas, there's been no big Powerball jackpot to drive up playing, and North Carolina placed a lower limit on prize money than other states.

N.C. law also sharply limits the amount of money the lottery can spend on advertising and prohibits ads from encouraging people to play.

"It has often been the case that the sales do go down a little bit" in the first months of a lottery, said Charles Clotfelter, a Duke University economics and law professor and a published expert on lotteries.

"There's an initial blush of excitement, and sometimes they go down. That's the kind of circumstance that leads legislators to go back to the lottery agency and say, 'You're not being aggressive enough.' That's something we might anticipate," he said.

Key state legislators expect to meet soon to examine the lottery's results so far and whether its guidelines need to be adjusted.

Shaheen emphasized that the lottery is still "hugely successful" with a revenue stream of nearly $1 million per day from all sales for education that didn't exist a year ago. Lottery executives have taken leftover money from the agency's operations budget to award more prizes in hopes of enticing more players.

Charlie Wilson, who works at Oak Island Sporting Goods in Oak Island, N.C., said he's seen a downturn — but that's because the tourists have left.

"The same people that have been playing the lottery tickets all along are still playing them," Wilson said.

But several retailers in Brunswick County, N.C., said sales are strong.

Raichelle Brunty, who works in the Han-Dee Hugo in Winnabow, N.C., said regulars bolster her store's sales, too. Brunty works the lottery desk and said that Sunday she probably sold about $2,000 in lottery tickets from 3 p.m. to 11 p.m.

State officials likely will have to drain the $50 million reserve created to cover shortfalls in lottery revenue this year. They also can use an extra $13 million produced because the game started several weeks before the beginning of the fiscal year, July 1.

Even adding that funding, however, would not cover the $425 million in education spending that the lottery is supposed to finance.

"It's something we warned lawmakers about for years that seems to have come to fruition very quickly. The revenue from the lottery is unreliable," said John Rustin, lobbyist for the Family Policy Council in Raleigh, which opposed the lottery.

Lottery proponents in the General Assembly pushed the state-sponsored gambling through as a fundraiser for education and wrote into the lottery law that 35 percent of proceeds would be funneled to pre-kindergarten, more teachers, scholarships and school construction.

Shaheen warned legislators when he signed on as director, though, that their budgeted projection was too high. They had forecast about $1.2 billion in sales during the first full year, which translates into $425 million for education.

The lottery commission last summer adopted a more modest projection of around $1.1 billion in sales, but even that figure isn't holding up, Shaheen said last week. He now says the lottery could do $1 billion in business by June 30, the fiscal year's end.

That works out to $350 million for education — $75 million less than lawmakers included in the budget.

It also would require a boon in sales in the coming months. The lottery is expected to sell $440 million in tickets between July and the end of this month.

North Carolina lottery projections

McClatchy Newspapers

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Todd's avatarTodd

This is a disaster for North Carolina -- $75 million is a huge percentage of the $425 million they were projecting for education.

Blaming the shortfall on gas prices is a pretty dumb argument.  I think Shaheen needs to do a little more soul-searching to figure out what's not working.

My hunch is that it's something to do with marketing.  I don't buy the argument that the limits on TV ads are causing the sales problems.  I don't think TV ads generate a lot of scratch ticket sales, and the poor scratch ticket sales are the root cause of the shortfall.

It's nothing personal against the people in marketing at the N.C. Lottery, but I think it would pay huge dividends to enlist the help of some marketing folks who are more experienced and "energetic".

Right from the get-go the marketing has been a problem.  Remember all the wackiness surrounding the creation of the logo, and the fact that they used clipart to send stuff to the media?  The lottery should employ the highest quality marketing personnel and materials, they should not try to "make do" with what they have.

(I still think the logo is pretty bad, even after the make-over.)

Again, this is a gut reaction.  I'm not there, so I could be totally wrong.  For all I know it could be the game mix, the prize mix, or something operational.  But my gut says it's marketing.

DoubleDown

I agree, Todd. Marketing is extremely important and NC has certainly lacked in this area.

There have been several Powerball second prize winners and even a huge jackpot winner, so excitement should drive sales...

What's wrong with the scratchers ?  I am told the NC has a very poor payout percentage.

I have never bought one, but this is just what I'm told..

I have the opportunity to buy them, but pass them by for SC tickets...

DD

CASH Only

Quote: Originally posted by DoubleDown on Dec 26, 2006

I agree, Todd. Marketing is extremely important and NC has certainly lacked in this area.

There have been several Powerball second prize winners and even a huge jackpot winner, so excitement should drive sales...

What's wrong with the scratchers ?  I am told the NC has a very poor payout percentage.

I have never bought one, but this is just what I'm told..

I have the opportunity to buy them, but pass them by for SC tickets...

DD

I've heard that North Carolina's scratches pay only 52%. Some stores in South Carolina have posted signs telling that SC's scratches pay better than in NC.

This is one example where players have noticed the significant differences in payout percentage.

Todd's avatarTodd

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on Dec 26, 2006

I've heard that North Carolina's scratches pay only 52%. Some stores in South Carolina have posted signs telling that SC's scratches pay better than in NC.

This is one example where players have noticed the significant differences in payout percentage.

That's your opinion.  I don't agree.

wpb's avatarwpb

I think NC should revamp the pick 5 and add pick 4.  The pick 5 game is a joke, you have to hit all 5 numbers for a good payout.  4 out of 5 wins has never been $500.

Just my opinion.

Tenaj's avatarTenaj

Quote: Originally posted by wpb on Dec 26, 2006

I think NC should revamp the pick 5 and add pick 4.  The pick 5 game is a joke, you have to hit all 5 numbers for a good payout.  4 out of 5 wins has never been $500.

Just my opinion.

I'd like to see midday pick 3 and pick 4.

cps10's avatarcps10

I would like to see the midday games as well; and also play the Pick-5 like how SC models it. I also think a Classic P6 would benefit a lot of North Carolinians with a game to call their own instead of following the leader with Powerball. Many people around here that I've talked to are very unhappy with the low jackpots thus far in NC's limited Powerball history.

Granted, playing the PB is a terrible proposition, but sales spike when the jackpots swell. Right now, at $75 million, that's hardly grounds for people to get excited.

I also agree the Marketing is B.S. I have come to them with several different ideas and promotions to get sales generated, all which have been shot down. If they aren't willing to listen and step up some of the marketing efforts, they are headed for dire straits.

cps10's avatarcps10

Another thing I see wrong is the fact that the State, granted at least they are currently working on the education system for which the lottery is named, is that they are spending the money before they have it. That is poor budgeting, and you should never count your chickens before they hatch. If I were the Comptroller, I would budget assuming I had NO lottery funds coming, and then if and when the lottery funds come through, use that to IMPROVE areas of the education system.

For example, if they had a $1 billion (just for sake of numbers) budget in 2006, then budget for $1.1 billion, or whatever their cost-of-living increases are. Then, if $400 million comes in from the lottery, then use that money to go ahead with adding 2 new schools in Raleigh, or wherever. But don't spend it before you make it. That seems assinine.

wizeguy's avatarwizeguy

I tend to tune out commercials but I can't remember the last lottery commercial I saw. Increase the payouts on the scratchers too. NC is losing sales because of it, especially on the borders. I still buy gas and smokes across the border and see a lot of NC plates.

CASH Only

Quote: Originally posted by cps10 on Dec 26, 2006

I would like to see the midday games as well; and also play the Pick-5 like how SC models it. I also think a Classic P6 would benefit a lot of North Carolinians with a game to call their own instead of following the leader with Powerball. Many people around here that I've talked to are very unhappy with the low jackpots thus far in NC's limited Powerball history.

Granted, playing the PB is a terrible proposition, but sales spike when the jackpots swell. Right now, at $75 million, that's hardly grounds for people to get excited.

I also agree the Marketing is B.S. I have come to them with several different ideas and promotions to get sales generated, all which have been shot down. If they aren't willing to listen and step up some of the marketing efforts, they are headed for dire straits.

There is a "Carolina Plus 6" in the works, according to South Carolina www.sceducationlottery.com Don't know whether it would SC only, or both Carolinas.

Pick3forSC's avatarPick3forSC

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on Dec 26, 2006

There is a "Carolina Plus 6" in the works, according to South Carolina www.sceducationlottery.com Don't know whether it would SC only, or both Carolinas.

Hi Cash

Where did i miss that on SC's website?  I looked under NEWS & GAMES but did'nt see anything concerning a Carolinas Plus 6.

CASH Only

Quote: Originally posted by Pick3forSC on Dec 26, 2006

Hi Cash

Where did i miss that on SC's website?  I looked under NEWS & GAMES but did'nt see anything concerning a Carolinas Plus 6.

Go back. There is a link at the bottom.

Pick3forSC's avatarPick3forSC

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on Dec 26, 2006

Go back. There is a link at the bottom.

Thanks Cash

I found it under "Notice of public meetings"   Curious to see where it goes.

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss


In actuality the money really doesn't go to eduaction.

 Via voodoo bookkepping it's plugged into the state's education system in one place, and an equal or even larger amount comes out of the education system in another place.  

Otherwise, every state that has had a lottery for years would have the finest schools anywhere. We all know that's definitley not the case.  

JimmySand9

I think both CO and Todd are right.

Tood had a point about the logos. The logos for the in-state games look extremely amateurish, and may cause players to believe, subconsciencely, that the entire operation is amateurish. As a freelance graphic designer, I can tell you a good logo is paramount if a medium to large-sized company like a lottery wants a good public image.

But CashOnly probably has the best point. Time and again, it has been proven that the more you put into prizes, the more tickets you sell. Tom Shaheen has actually acknowleged this, and he did ask the state legislature to remove the 35% minimum profit margin so payouts could be raised. But nothing of the sort has happened, yet. 

These are probably the only things NC can do to raise sales, other than add more games.

Todd's avatarTodd

I disagree about the prize percentage thing. The average player has no clue about such small differences in prize payouts. You are part of a relatively small percentage of players who cares about such things. Think about how Cash Only goes around complaining non-stop about the prize payouts of the NY Lottery, and then how successful that lottery is.

Tenaj's avatarTenaj

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Dec 26, 2006

I disagree about the prize percentage thing. The average player has no clue about such small differences in prize payouts. You are part of a relatively small percentage of players who cares about such things. Think about how Cash Only goes around complaining non-stop about the prize payouts of the NY Lottery, and then how successful that lottery is.

WinkThe average NC lottery player knows the prize percentages.    They played in SC, Virginia and the most experience -underground - and they know what the prizes should be.  SC lottery made the most money in the border towns from NC people.  We have anti-lottery leaders with their thumbs on the Lottery Commission head that's making the lottery unsuccessful but there are some damn good lottery players in this state -  not to have never had a state lottery before. 

I think lottery officials were really shocked that players blow up the pick 3 daily.  Sometimes 2000 people hit pick 3 daily, never under 1,500 and they pay out averaging $175,000 daily on pick 3 hits for us to be such a small state compared to others.

I think they made money off the relatively small percentage of players who didn't know or care with those lousy scratch offs and that ridiculous Carolina 5 and even they caught on and quit buying them.

The majority of players are not the ones who don't know or care.  I think it's the other way around.  But I understand why you would think so.  There is a combination of things that affect the NC lottery falling short.  Just having the drawing prime time rather than 11:22 will beef it up.  Having the NC lottery on the down low is the result of anti-lottery people still having their way.  Tom Sheehan knows exactly what to do to make a lottery successful but have not been allowed to do so.  I wouldn't be surprised if he lasted 6 more months.

cps10's avatarcps10

Quote: Originally posted by Tenaj on Dec 27, 2006

WinkThe average NC lottery player knows the prize percentages.    They played in SC, Virginia and the most experience -underground - and they know what the prizes should be.  SC lottery made the most money in the border towns from NC people.  We have anti-lottery leaders with their thumbs on the Lottery Commission head that's making the lottery unsuccessful but there are some damn good lottery players in this state -  not to have never had a state lottery before. 

I think lottery officials were really shocked that players blow up the pick 3 daily.  Sometimes 2000 people hit pick 3 daily, never under 1,500 and they pay out averaging $175,000 daily on pick 3 hits for us to be such a small state compared to others.

I think they made money off the relatively small percentage of players who didn't know or care with those lousy scratch offs and that ridiculous Carolina 5 and even they caught on and quit buying them.

The majority of players are not the ones who don't know or care.  I think it's the other way around.  But I understand why you would think so.  There is a combination of things that affect the NC lottery falling short.  Just having the drawing prime time rather than 11:22 will beef it up.  Having the NC lottery on the down low is the result of anti-lottery people still having their way.  Tom Sheehan knows exactly what to do to make a lottery successful but have not been allowed to do so.  I wouldn't be surprised if he lasted 6 more months.

I tend to agree with Janet here too. I think that the NC player is a lot smarter than most people give credit to. For a bunch of hillbillies, we are hitting that Pick-3 with regularity.

Now, in all seriousness, Janet is right with the lousy scratch offs, which I have not known one person to hit for more than $20, and believe me, I know a lot of players around here. My office itself has some lotto nuts in it. The Carolina 5, whereby a good idea at its outset, has been a grandiose failure with its prize structure. People in SC won't touch that thing, unless there is a $300k or more jackpot to it. And even then, you may ended up with several winners. People I know have quit buying scratchers and C-5 as well.

The timing of the drawings is bad too. Implement a midday drawing and bring the evening back to even 8 or 9pm, when people can actually watch. Even if I am awake at 11:22, I forget to turn to WCNC for the drawings. It's just a stupid time to draw in my opinion.

Tom Shaheen won't be here in '08 I am sure of that.

CASH Only

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Dec 26, 2006

I disagree about the prize percentage thing. The average player has no clue about such small differences in prize payouts. You are part of a relatively small percentage of players who cares about such things. Think about how Cash Only goes around complaining non-stop about the prize payouts of the NY Lottery, and then how successful that lottery is.

The NY Lottery is successful because of a) its large population base (plus the people who live in the Connecticut and New Jersey suburbs); b) it's the second-oldest lottery in the country; and c) NYers are gamblers (the Religious Right has virtually no influence in NY state.)

But IMO there is a very significant difference between a 40% payout and a 50% payout, and NYers are starting to take notice. I predict a change in NY Lotto in 2007.

Drivedabizness

Todd:

 

First - I hope you had a great Christmas and will have a happy, prosperous 2007!

The revenue estimates were way too optimistic but that doesn't mean they can't or shouldn't do better than they have.  Budgeting proceeds before they are produced will set the lottery and the good causes it supports up for failure.

I know Shaheen - and your comments could not be more on the button. 

He doesn't go after top talent because he wants people in his organization who will kowtow and be eternally loyal to him (he learned that from a pro). And of course, he suffers from "Directoritis" ...that malady that almost always affects people who head lotteries. Symptoms include delusions of grandeur, vast increase in head size without corresponding brain activity, feeling that no one else really knows anything and a tendency to look, not at pressing organizational needs, but at ones own long-term career. I mean, once you've run two lotteries, chances are you can always get a top post somewhere else.

 

To be fair, low payouts aren't helping. You're right - advertising doesn't necessarily do much for instant ticket sales - winning tickets and a properly managed distribution/retail merchandising system are the chief drivers of instant ticket sales.

nc6string

North Carolina, to beat a dead horse, had the chance to learn from over 40 other states mistakes when we started our lottery.  Because we hired the same bozos that ran other lotteries in the past, the same mistakes were repeated by said bozos.  A1 problem, already stated by others before in this thread, is spending (or planning to spend) money we haven't earned or booked.  Based on projections from said bozos, who actually already had the nerve to ask for bonuses.   We ran the state, and education in the state for over 200 years without lottery money, so the law allowing a lottery should have incorporated a clause that said no money can be budgeted unless it has already been earned.  So there is a one fiscal year lag in spending - so what?   You get to spend what you make and that's it.  We hemmed and hawed for 20 years on whether to do it in the first place - what would one more year matter?  Dumb bozos.

 The idea of advertising, or more advertising, makes me sick.  The whole argument to allow the lottery was because "people are going to play anyway", now all of a sudden we have to stick it in everyone's face in order to get them to play more?  Puke.  Advertising should be illegal.  Players should play from their own interests and motivation or else they should spend their money on food, medicine, clothing, text books and gasoline.  Give me a break with this advertising.   How many times did we read how much money was being gambled on the lottery in nearby states, with no direct NC advertising?  Puke.  Lottery ads are just sick.   And on top of that, advertising ain't free, and is another drain on the revenues, as said bozos try their old tricks on the tele.

 Let me gamble in peace.  Dumb bozos.

Todd's avatarTodd

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on Dec 27, 2006

The NY Lottery is successful because of a) its large population base (plus the people who live in the Connecticut and New Jersey suburbs); b) it's the second-oldest lottery in the country; and c) NYers are gamblers (the Religious Right has virtually no influence in NY state.)

But IMO there is a very significant difference between a 40% payout and a 50% payout, and NYers are starting to take notice. I predict a change in NY Lotto in 2007.

So the Non-Religious Left has virtually all the influence then?

sfilippo's avatarsfilippo

I was wondering if there was a correlation between conservative states and liberal states who have lotteries.

To use a Rumsfeld word... we had a dickens of a time getting the lottery passed here in Oklahoma, and now there is news about it's shortfall toward the Education fund.

Oklahoma is sort of a fickle state in that it is largely Democrat with a Christian Conservative base. It's just strange. Hard to explain.

Anyway, yeah the lottery isn't doing as well as projected here either.

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss


Lottery money appears to go to education, but the state just plays checkers with it.

Rread the following, all states do this:

 For every dollar that the Illinois State Lottery provides for education, the State of Illinois takes one of their dollars out of the education budget to use wherever they like.....

According to the site, they have raised a total of $1.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2004, with $570 million going directly towards schools. According to them, 33 cents from every $1 spent on lottery tickets goes to fund state education.

This is true. Unfortunately, what isn't true is the purpose this money ultimately serves.

When the law officially designated money raised by the lottery to pay for education in 1985, it was blindly assumed that any money raised by the lottery would be extra money, an added bonus to go towards the schools.

Many communities promoted involvement in the lottery to help pay for education in their area. They were somehow led to believe that the more lottery money raised in their area, the more extra money would go towards local schools.

Fact: Contrary to popular belief, money earned in the lottery is not an additional bonus or boost in state education money.

Fact: The amount of money a town or community spends on the lottery is not reflected in how much lottery money that area receives.

Fact: The money raised by the Illinois state lottery simply replaces money the state had put aside for education....

....Since its inception, the lottery has raised over $12 billion for state education "replacement" dollars, in FY2003, the lottery contributed $540.3 million dollars, only 16.7 percent of that years Illinois Common School Fund.

Even if every cent spent on lottery went towards education, (as opposed to 33 percent) the lottery would have to double their yearly income to come even closer to cover all of education.

More: 

http://www.dailyvidette.com/home/index.cfm?event=displayArticlePrinterFriendly&uStory_id=302dc011-f2ba-4881-a865-160b1ff7bac3 

Tenaj's avatarTenaj

And the schools never get better.

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